1. Demand Forecasting and Planning in Crisis Workshop 2009 July 30-31 Sofitel Oriental Pudong Shanghai Joseph Ogrodowczyk, Ph.D. Introduction Joseph Ogrodowczyk1 Demand Forecasting and Planning in Crisis, 30-31 July, Shanghai

2. Demand Forecasting and Planning in Crisis Day 1 9:00 – 10:00 Session 1: Overview 10:00 – 10:30Activity: Forecasting process discussions 10:30 – 11:00 Break 11:00 – 12:30 Session 2: Forecasting and S&OP 12:30 – 14:00 Lunch 14:00 – 15:00 Session 3: Data: Overview, analysis, and presentation 15:00 – 15:30Activity: Data preparation and reporting 15:30 – 16:00 Break 16:00 – 17:00 Session 4: Short run forecasting 17:00 – 17:30Activity: Short run forecasting Introduction Joseph Ogrodowczyk2 Demand Forecasting and Planning in Crisis, 30-31 July, Shanghai

3. Demand Forecasting and Planning in Crisis Day 2 9:00 – 10:00 Session 5: Guest speaker: Ms. Jennifer Han, Planning Director, Unilever 10:00 – 10:30 Break 10:30 – 12:30 Session 6: Choosing forecasting models 12:30 – 14:00 Lunch 14:00 – 15:00 Session 7: Evaluating forecasts 15:00 – 15:30Activity: Forecast accuracy and cost of error 15:30 – 16:00 Break 16:00 – 17:30 Session 8: Conclusions Introduction Joseph Ogrodowczyk3 Demand Forecasting and Planning in Crisis, 30-31 July, Shanghai

4. Demand Forecasting and Planning in Crisis Website http://forecastingandplanning.pbworks.com Questions: Send an e-mail or use web form  Focus question: What do you hope to get out of this workshop?  Also, access my contact information, and all presentation materials (in English only) during or after the workshop Introduction Joseph Ogrodowczyk4 Demand Forecasting and Planning in Crisis, 30-31 July, Shanghai

5. Data  Data for presentations and activities were taken from FreeLunch.com http://www.economy.com/freelunch (accessed March 15, 2009) http://www.economy.com/freelunch  Two worksheets in file: B2B and B2C  Wood on B2B is used for Sessions 3, 4 and 7  Session 1 uses example data  Session 8 uses data from articles Introduction Joseph Ogrodowczyk Demand Forecasting and Planning in Crisis, 30-31 July, Shanghai 5 Demand Forecasting and Planning in Crisis

6. Forecasting in economic crisis  Best approach to forecasting is a holistic approach to forecasting that does not change during crisis  Key elements Well defined business process allowing for flexibility Communication between stakeholder groups Understanding / handling changes in data  These skills and knowledge become critical in financial crisis when mistakes are more costly Remember, best practices are best practices Introduction Joseph Ogrodowczyk6 Demand Forecasting and Planning in Crisis, 30-31 July, Shanghai