1. Policies and measures to formalize the informal economy Presentation for the ILO-ITC seminar on “Employment and Informal Economy” March, 2009 Prof. Krastyo Petkov-Bulgaria Kr.petkov@wnwe.eu

2. CLASIFFICATION AND FACTORS 1. Definitions: different criteria and concepts /black, shadow, underground, hidden economy/; 2. Three sectors of the hidden economy: Informal /legal/; Grey /semi legal /; Black / I legal /; 3. Segmentation of the labour market in the IE 4.Factors for the IE growth: Global; Intraregional; National; Neo liberal reforms;

3. First part INTRODUCTION

4. Evolution of meanings Important massage: Informal Economy /IE/ is not a temporary, transitional phenomenon, as it used to be described in the theory and practice

5. Past significance Initial considerations of Informal Economy /IE/ were related to imaging it, as just an adjunct to the official economy. Gradually IE marked a certain growth. It involved c branches and regions, thus, engaging numerous in figures and sustainable in time, labor and business groups. It transformed from a safe-way for unemployed and low-income groups, into a factor, adding to the overall economic growth.

6. Present importance Today, informal work parallels labor, applied in the formal economy; and thus, informal employment turns into a significant source of primary and/or secondary (marginal) incomes for individuals. This process happens, primarily in the developing countries. National economies, especially in times of crisis, evolve to new economic equilibria and dynamics, rooted at two inter-dependent economic sectors: the formal and informal one.

7. Second part STATISTICS

8. IE size in the transition countries The share of informal sector in Central Europe is estimated at 15%-20% of the total number of employed. Percentage levels of this share in the Baltic Region, Bulgaria, Romania, and Croatia vary in between 20% and 35%. However, in two territorially distant regions, flourishing of informal economic activity is observed. For instance, in the states of ex-Yugoslavia, this percentage range is 40%-50%, and in the Asian teritiries of the ex-USSR, this is a range of 50% to 80% of all employed.

9. IE in 21 OECD countries

11. Factors for the IE growth: -Global /including findncial and economic crisis/; - Intraregional /common past, present links/; - National /traditions,; regulations/; -Neo liberal reforms deregulation paradigm/;

12. Third part DEFINITIONS

13. General definitions Mixed criteria-many definitions: IE is a ‘market-based production of goods and services, whether legal or illegal, that escapes detection in the official estimates of GDP’. Or to put it in another way, one of the broadest definitions of IE includes: ’those economic activities and the income derived from them that circumvent or otherwise avoid government regulation, taxation or observation’.

14. Concrete definition In this presentation the following more narrow definition of the IE economy is used. “ The Informal Economy includes all market-based legal production of goods and services that are deliberately concealed from governments for the following reasons: 1. to avoid payment of income, value added or other taxes, 2. to avoid payment of social security contributions, 3. to avoid having to meet certain legal labour market standards, such as minimum wages, maximum working hours, safety standards, etc., 4. to avoid complying with certain administrative procedures, such as completing statistical questionnaires or other administrative forms.

15. PERC project typology In general, there are two types of underground economic activities: illicit employment and the production of goods and services consumed within the household. PERC methodology focuses on the former type and excludes illegal activities such as drug production, crime and human trafficking. The latter type includes the production of goods and services, consumed within the household or childcare and is not part of this analysis either. Thus, PERC analysis only focuses on economic activities that would normally be included in national accounts but which due to tax or regulatory burden remain underground.

16. Forth part WHY I E GROWS?

17. Main Causes of IE growth-1 1. Tax and Social Security Contribution Burdens Since taxes affect labour-leisure choices, and also stimulate labour supply in the shadow economy, the distortion of the overall tax burden is a major concern for economists. The bigger the difference between the total cost of labour in the official economy and the after-tax earnings (from work), the greater is the incentive to avoid this difference and to work in the shadow economy 2. Intensity of Regulations Increased intensity of regulations is another important factor which reduces the freedom (of choice) for individuals engaged in the official economy / labour market regulations, trade barriers, and labour restrictions for foreigners./

18. Main causes of IE growth-2 3. Public Sector Services An increase of the shadow economy can lead to reduced state revenues which in turn reduce the quality and quantity of publicly provided goods and services. Ultimately, this can lead to an increase in the tax rates for firms and individuals in the official sector, quite often combined with a deterioration in the quality of the public goods (such as the public infrastructure) and of the administration, with the consequence of even stronger incentives to participate in the shadow economy. Important note: Countries with more general regulation of their economies tend to have a higher share of the unofficial economy in total GDP, is found in their empirical analysis.

19. Some Intermediate Conclusions 1.Smaller shadow economies appear in countries with higher tax revenues if achieved by lower tax rates, fewer laws and regulations and less bribery facing enterprises. Countries with a better rule of law, which is financed by tax revenues, also have smaller shadow economies. 2. Transition countries have higher levels of regulation leading to a significantly higher incidence of bribery, higher effective taxes on official activities and a large discretionary framework of regulations and consequently a higher shadow economy. 3. The overall conclusion is that ‘wealthier countries of the OECD, as well as some in Eastern Europe, find themselves in the ‘good equilibrium’ of relatively low tax and regulatory burden, sizeable revenue mobilization, good rule of law and corruption control, and a [relatively] small unofficial economy. By contrast, a number of countries in Latin America and the former Soviet Union exhibit characteristics consistent with a ‘bad equilibrium’: tax and regulatory discretion and burden on the firm are high, the rule of law is weak, and there is a high incidence of bribery and a relatively high share of activities in the unofficial economy.

20. Fifth part IE in the CEE/SEE regions

21. Informal Economy Stages Emergence End 80,s - Beginning 90’s Proliferation Second half of 90-es Boom: Structuring Segmentation And Partial institutionaliz ation After 2000

22. What is behind this trajectory? /Some arguments from PERC analysis/ Informal employment appeared simultaneously with the political changes in the 80s, which period of time is known as the “perestroika”. During the totalitarian period of time, each informal activity (excluding home-centered activities), was considered, as a rule, to be illegal and was penalized by official authorities. Another exception to this generalization are the small segments of agricultural activities in the field of land cultivation, mutual service exchanges among house-holds, where there is relatively no direct state intervention in labor market relations of private/family nature (Poland, Hungary, Bulgaria, and others). Since 1989 a period of forced and chaotic informalization came, due to the neoliberal economic reforms, imposed in the 90s within the whole vast region of the Central and Eastern European Countries. The boom of unregulated employment is a result of the specific and compressed in time processes of privatization and economic restructuring of the big state-owned and state-managed companies in a large scale. These processes were coupled with mass liberalization of labor force without applying adequate measures for support of the emerging labor markets. Some of these measures, which were never applied as economic tools are requalification of individuals, labor market brokerage, labor market funneling of the labor force, stimulation of self-employment and other tools. The next, third wave, which occurred during the first decade of the 21 st century, is a period of time, when most of the national economies of the Eastern and South-East Europe were modified into a test-field to apply the principles and policies of the Washington Consensus and its relevant tools for imposing shock therapies.

23. How it happened in the CEE / PERC Project/ Countries from the first round/circle, included in the ITUC/PERC project /SEE– former Yugoslavia/ and in the second circle /NIS-ex-USSR/ conducted two interlinked changes: -Transformation One – it was typical for the ex-Soviet area: and transition from state- planned to market-driven economy was completed; -Transformation Two – represents transition from one-party governance to political and trade unionist pluralism; National Mapping Reports show that both transformations were conducted in parallel, and there were times, where they were discontinued every now and then by economic cycle crises or corrections in the models for reforms /Ukraine, Serbia, Georgia/; by political crisis – and more specifically, by local destabilization /including ethnic-based conflicts/ and by external inter-state tensions and collision /typical to all countries, included in the project/.

24. Chronology of the events Emerging of IE is related to increasing insecurity and freedoms of movement of people and work force.. Transition from regulated employment, mainly from occupations in state- owned companies to occupations in the emerging informal private businesses is a result of the spontaneously derived strategy for survival in crisis situations. The other impulse for spontaneous informalization is due to the prevailed economic chaos, which occurred after the elimination of the party-state, top-to-bottom control mechanisms /that is, elimination of the command-administrative system/. The embargo regiments, applied in the region of the Western Balkans are the other generator of unregulated trade, illegal migration and proliferation of trans-border informal economic networks. In terms of chronological order, ethnic and religious conflicts (including armed conflicts in the Western Balkans and the Caucasus) were first, then transition times came (time of economic reforms, imposed by the IFI’s and applied by the respective national governments, who followed the neoliberal doctrine for building “free and perfect” markets). The second period lasted until the economic crisis of 2007-2010. However, the EME’s do have neither automatic stabilizers, nor buffers, nor networks to protect the affected by the crisis professional groups and businesses.

25. The Informal Economy Boom All countries without exceptions, in both sub- regions, are turning from industrial- agricultural or mainly agricultural states into economic areas with domination of services, retailing and dispersed micro-production factories, based on sub-contractual relations. This is demonstrated by the branch distribution of informal activities in all nine countries, subject to the ITUC/PERC project

26. Positive Effects To the positive effects, one may add all of the following examples: - the process of finding jobs (which diminishes unemployment rates); the process of accruing additional incomes for individuals (which diminished poverty rates); -the process of evolving the way services are provided to the market (which was limited by the party-state system of command administration); -the process of producing demanded goods – mainly in the processing industry, information innovations industries (internet, and mobile technologies, which allow individuals to work from their homes, or from a distance; the e- economy, in general); -the process of greater use of labor potential of households, and so on, and so forth.

27. Negative effects To the negative effects all national analysts relate: - at first place, direct and indirect practices to circumvent labor and social standards and acts. -diminishing tax incomes and social security proceedings into national treasury turns into financial burden for the state and social burden for the individuals. And many more examples of negative effects may be given here, such as non-loyal business competition /social dumping/, woman and child labor exploitation, criminalization of businesses /where shadow and black segments are organically inter-mingled/, administrative corruption, and others.

28. Sixed part FORMALISATION OR IDENTIFICATION?

29. Evolution of concepts and polices Transformation by economic sectors takes comparatively long time /half a century, at least/; during this period of time economic theories and political views evolve, in terms of their relation to informal activities. Although official data for developing countries show that even today the share of unregulated labor is comparatively low, the phenomenon “informal economy” becomes a focal point for the strategic analysts and decision-makers. Processes of the last decade changed significantly EU’s official position and attitude towards the process of “informalization” of the economy. The very accent of the EU policy altered the banning norms /restrictive / into curative regulations and gradual legalization of some segments of the informal employment.

30. Three Competing Views of the Informal Economy and Economic Development By definition, informal businesses are hidden from the eyes of the state and so most of what we have relies on estimations and very micro- level studies. A cross-country report that appeared in the Brookings Papers on August 2008 aims to improve the understanding of the relationship between economic development and the informal economy. Brookings Papers

31. The romantic view According to this view informal firms are actually or potentially extremely productive, but held back by government taxes and regulations as well as by the lack of safe property rights and access to finance. If such barriers were lowered, informal businesses would register and take advantage of the benefits of their formal status. Thus, this view assumes that unofficial firms are fundamentally similar to official ones.

32. The parasite view The parasite view states that informal firms need to stay small to avoid detection. The decision to remain in the informal economy is a rational one, because the cost advantage of avoiding taxes and regulations allows unofficial firms to undercut official firms in prices. Informal firms are thus hurting growth because their small scale makes them unproductive and because they take away market share from more productive, formal competitors. Government policy should aim to eradicate informal firms by reducing tax evasion and increasing government regulation enforcement.

33. The dual view Informal and formal firms are operating in different markets and have different customers so they do not compete against each other. Since informal firms provide livelihoods to millions of people, government policies should not raise the costs of doing business for them. Instead, the role of government policies should be to promote the creation of official firms and let the informal ones die as the economy develops.

34. Additional arguments for the new identity Since there is such a productivity gap between formal and informal firms and considering that there is no evidence that informal firms become formal as they grow, stimulation of formal firms is necessary for economic growth. The evidence points out that a best move would be to support the creation of formal firms run by educated managers and utilizing modern practices to stimulate economic development.

35. IE-Crisis Figures published by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) show that the world has more people working informally than formally. Campaigners emphasise that informal workers are not necessarily illegal workers. The OECD says that a record 1.8 billion workers are employed in underground activities, compared with 1.2 billion in the formal sector. The organisation notes that, during a recession, “dismissed workers frequently have to move to the first available job, even if it is of a lower quality than the one they have lost”. It says that this will have a profoundly negative effect on the United Nations’ Millennium Development Goal to halve the number of people who live on less than $1 (69p) a day.

36. IE-Migration Between 4 million and 8 million people reside illegally in Europe, which has made illegal migration a top priority in European politics for the past few years. Illegal migrants come mainly to the Mediterranean countries from Africa, Eastern Europe, and the Middle East. Most of them also choose to stay permanently. Low fertility rates and aging populations coupled with a higher level of education have led to labor shortages in low-paying sectors. In Southern Europe, the IE provides work for the paperless within these areas, something that politicians are unwilling to admit to the public. Italian sociologist Emilio Reyneri's research, shows that the IE in Southern Europe has a pull-effect on migration. The IE has deep social and historical roots and has not been caused by immigration. The opportunities for informal work, strengthened by the fact that there are labor shortages in sectors where natives no longer want to work, has made these countries attractive for migrants.

37. The end Thanks for the attention! Any questions?

38. Над 14% е сивата икономика в Германия, според анализаторите на ”Дойче банк” Сивата икономика в европейските страни им е помогнала да оцелеят по време на рецесията, съобщава Financial Times, цитиран от Economynews. Британският вестник се позовава на изследване на "Дойче банк". Експертите на банката са уверени, че икономиките с предимно съмнителни структури, с голям обем недекларирани средства, използващи утвърдени схеми за избягване на данъци са преживели по-малко негативи в сравнение с “честните“ си конкуренти. Анализаторите уточняват, че този извод важи предимно за страните, в които този тип икономика е много разпространена. Като пример експертите посочват Гърция, чиято икономика, независимо от финансовата криза, се сви с 1% в сравнение с 4-те процента спад в страните в ЕС. Страни като Австрия, Франция и Холандия, които са пример за другата крайност на “изцяло пълна честност“ също се справят относително успешно от кризата. Оказва се, че най-много са пострадали от икономическата криза тези, които не са в нито една от крайностите, а именно германците. Анализаторите определят, че показателят на сивата икономика е сравнително висок 14,3318% за Германия. В същото време страната е била изправена пред реализацията на един от най- рисковите сценарии за изход от кризата.

39. Re-conceptualization of IE Органичната връзка между формалния и неформалния сектор; От неформалния капан към нов еквалибриум /информализацията като глобален тренд/; Вложенията се отплащат: НЕ като естествен стабилизатор: а/ в период на развитие /случаят с Индия/; б/ в период на криза; Извод за синдикатите: да се учат на партньорство с неформалните работници и техните мрежи;