1. OUCE Oxford University Centre for the Environment Climate Change and Water in Africa Mark New

2. OUCE Oxford University Centre for the Environment Recent Research 1: Uncertainty in Future River Runoff Grand Ensemble (2x CO 2 ) Climate Model Output Run Hydrological Model at 1x1° lat/lon resolution Analyse Simulated Runoff over Major River Basins

3. OUCE Oxford University Centre for the Environment Uncertainty in Future River Runoff: General Patterns of Rainfall Change

4. OUCE Oxford University Centre for the Environment Uncertainty in Future River Runoff: River Nile

5. OUCE Oxford University Centre for the Environment Uncertainty in Future River Runoff: Niger River

6. OUCE Oxford University Centre for the Environment Uncertainty in Future River Runoff: Orange River

7. OUCE Oxford University Centre for the Environment Some Caveats…  Only sampling a few of the Global Climate Model Uncertainties  A simple 2 x CO 2 experiment  The hydrological model also has uncertainties

8. OUCE Oxford University Centre for the Environment Recent Research 2: Changes in Perennial Rivers De Wit, Science, 2006

9. OUCE Oxford University Centre for the Environment Recent Research 2: Changes in Perennial Rivers

10. OUCE Oxford University Centre for the Environment Recent Research 2: Changes in Perennial Rivers

11. OUCE Oxford University Centre for the Environment Concluding Thoughts  Recent research is providing new insights into future water availability in Africa  At this stage there are few basins where a consistent picture is emerging  Rural communities may be worst hit  Availability is only one side of the issue – future demand will affect water resources far more seriously  Climate change will likely be an added stress on increasingly stressed systems

12. OUCE Oxford University Centre for the Environment Questions?