1. Community Level Migration & Conservation John S. Williams Population Strategies Group

2. Historical Context  In local areas where there is great pressure of people on local resources, there is a need to reduce the rate of population growth  Community based population and environment programs have focused primarily on reproductive health, not migration

3. Jaldapara, India  Population appraisal in support of a planning process for the endangered rhino  How was the local population affecting the rhino population  Looked at population and resource use over time

4. Extreme pressure on local resources  In Jaldapara, the number of households had doubled over 25 years. (half of households were now essentially landless)  Migration from Bangladesh was a primary factor in local population growth  Those with land had about the same quantity of land as 25 y ears previously  Landless households survived, in part, on taking resources from the sanctuary

5. Women from Landless families near Jaldapara carrying wood to town for sale.

6. What are the Consequences to population growth and structure of reducing fertility?  Let us make projections of a population in a local community with the following assumptions Starting fertility in 2000: TFR = 3.75 Assumption A: Fertility reduced to 3.5 by 2025 (HF) Assumption B: Fertility reduced to 2.1 by 2010 (LF) Assumption C: Fertility reduced to 2.1 in 2025 (medium)  Improving health conditions, no migration

7. High Fertility vs Low Fertility – Over 25 years

8. Population Pyramids: 25 yrs low vs high fertility

9. The 25 year impacts of fertility reduction  Reduces the number of children  Reduces the momentum for future population growth.  Virtually no impact on number of people in the labor force  Virtually no impact on number of households or level of consumption

10. What are the impacts of alternative migration rates to population projections?  Let us make projections of a population in a local community with the following assumptions Starting with a population of about 6000 Assumption A: In migration of 60 people per year Assumption B: No migration Assumption C: Out migration of 60 people per year  Medium fertility projection, improving health

11. Migration: 1% in migration vs 1% out migration

12. Population Pyramids: low in- vs low out- migration, 25 years

13. Impacts of Migration  Out-migration may lead to short term stability or decline of local population  In-migration may greatly accelerate rate of population growth, new households, and consumption  Modest changes in migration patterns in the local area will usually have more immediate impacts than reducing fertility.

14. Migration policy at the local level  It is extremely difficult to curtail migration that is coming into a local community area.  In Jaldapara, migrants came from nearby Bangladesh, and pattern had a strong momentum.  Local community seems nearly helpless in peacefully stopping in-migration

15. Local Policy Alternatives  In places like Jaldapara, there are benefits to be obtained from slowing population growth  Family planning will not begin to result in reducing the number of households for many years  Out-migration may lead to such a result  The demographic history of the last century is a history of people moving from rural to urban areas.  In fact, many of the communities I have visited are marked by out-migration, not in-migration

16. What makes a villages a source of out-migration?  If the trends are toward out-migration, what factors may a conservation group turn to to encourage a level of out-migration? Two examples:  Suptai (Thailand - near Khao Yai Natl Park)  Mandar (Pakistan – Near Rawalpindi)

17. Suptai (Thailand)  Suptai Village was putting pressure on resource of Park  The Population & Community Development Project started a project: family planning, bringing in a road, bringing in electricity  Improving agricultural seeds and techniques

18. Migration in Suptai  Living conditions improved dramatically  Availability of electricity made cooking with wood from the park obsolete – no more wood collection  Raising of poultry and livestock supported a reduction of hunting  Dramatic change: Almost total absence of young people between the ages of 17 – 25.  Villagers blamed it on television

19. Mandar Village (Pakistan)  Small Moslem village on the Punjab plain of Northeast Pakistan  Mandar was a village with no men. In the 1950’s, two boys from the same family went to England and became doctors. Their family was wealthy In 1993, all boys studies English, and all had the career goal of working in England (or Hong Kong, Kuwait, etc.)

20. What Factors may encourage out-migration Education Communications with outside world (Radio / Television) Increased agricultural productivity Export of goods and products to urban areas Improved standard of living???

21. What encourages in-migration?  Presence of previous migrants who came from home village / have familial ties  Availability of land / ease of establishing a foothold  Availability of accessible food (i.e. seafood in a coastal area)  Perceived economic opportunities

22. What factors may discourage in-migration?  Lack of availability of land  Poor environmental character of the area  Difficulty of establishing a foothold in area  No previous migrants in the area  Perceived likelihood of conflict/hostility

23. Conclusions  If a conservation group wishes to slow population growth, there are elements that will over time stimulate out migration  The factors that lead to out-migration are already present in many rural areas  Supporting some of these elements may bring some conservation advantage