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U.S. Research April 2016 Please read disclosure/risk information and Analyst Certification beginning on slide 77. Published by Raymond James & Associates Raymond James Energy Group (800) 945-6275 Presentation to Energy Prospectus Group Don’t Worry, Oil Won’t Stay in the $30s Forever Terry.Starling@RaymondJames.com © 2016 Raymond James & Associates, Inc., member New York Stock Exchange/SIPC. All rights reserved. International Headquarters: The Raymond James Financial Center | 880 Carillon Parkway | St. Petersburg, Florida 33716 | 800-248-8863
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© 2013 Raymond James & Associates, Inc., member New York Stock Exchange/SIPC. All rights reserved. International Headquarters: The Raymond James Financial Center | 880 Carillon Parkway | St. Petersburg, Florida 33716 | 800-248-8863 2 No excess oil capacity – first time in 40 years U.S. has become lowest cost producer for oil & gas –Most underestimate the U.S. efficiency gains –Extraction cost falling rapidly –U.S. oil supply is cheap, resilient, and substantial U.S. growth displaces offshore/international Shift has massive geopolitical considerations –Stronger $, U.S. manufacturing wins, trade balances shift, global consumers win Published by Raymond James & Associates U.S. Research © 2016 Raymond James & Associates, Inc., member New York Stock Exchange/SIPC. All rights reserved. International Headquarters: The Raymond James Financial Center | 880 Carillon Parkway | St. Petersburg, Florida 33716 | 800-248-8863 How has the Oil & Gas World Changed?
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© 2013 Raymond James & Associates, Inc., member New York Stock Exchange/SIPC. All rights reserved. International Headquarters: The Raymond James Financial Center | 880 Carillon Parkway | St. Petersburg, Florida 33716 | 800-248-8863 The Oil Truck Has No Shock Absorbers U.S. Research Published by Raymond James & Associates © 2016 Raymond James & Associates, Inc., member New York Stock Exchange/SIPC. All rights reserved. International Headquarters: The Raymond James Financial Center | 880 Carillon Parkway | St. Petersburg, Florida 33716 | 800-248-8863 3
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© 2013 Raymond James & Associates, Inc., member New York Stock Exchange/SIPC. All rights reserved. International Headquarters: The Raymond James Financial Center | 880 Carillon Parkway | St. Petersburg, Florida 33716 | 800-248-8863 4 ♦ U.S. $ surging ♦ OPEC flooding the market – (Saudi, Iraq, Iran) ♦ U.S. supply posting huge growth First time in 40 years ♦ China not a problem (yet), supply is the problem U.S. Research Published by Raymond James & Associates U.S. Research © 2016 Raymond James & Associates, Inc., member New York Stock Exchange/SIPC. All rights reserved. International Headquarters: The Raymond James Financial Center | 880 Carillon Parkway | St. Petersburg, Florida 33716 | 800-248-8863 Why Have Global Oil & Gas Prices Collapsed?
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© 2013 Raymond James & Associates, Inc., member New York Stock Exchange/SIPC. All rights reserved. International Headquarters: The Raymond James Financial Center | 880 Carillon Parkway | St. Petersburg, Florida 33716 | 800-248-8863 5 U.S. Research Published by Raymond James & Associates U.S. Research © 2016 Raymond James & Associates, Inc., member New York Stock Exchange/SIPC. All rights reserved. International Headquarters: The Raymond James Financial Center | 880 Carillon Parkway | St. Petersburg, Florida 33716 | 800-248-8863 Problem #1: Saudi Production Surging
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© 2013 Raymond James & Associates, Inc., member New York Stock Exchange/SIPC. All rights reserved. International Headquarters: The Raymond James Financial Center | 880 Carillon Parkway | St. Petersburg, Florida 33716 | 800-248-8863 6 U.S. Research Published by Raymond James & Associates U.S. Research © 2016 Raymond James & Associates, Inc., member New York Stock Exchange/SIPC. All rights reserved. International Headquarters: The Raymond James Financial Center | 880 Carillon Parkway | St. Petersburg, Florida 33716 | 800-248-8863 Problem #2: Iran Returns to Market
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© 2013 Raymond James & Associates, Inc., member New York Stock Exchange/SIPC. All rights reserved. International Headquarters: The Raymond James Financial Center | 880 Carillon Parkway | St. Petersburg, Florida 33716 | 800-248-8863 7 U.S. Research Published by Raymond James & Associates U.S. Research © 2016 Raymond James & Associates, Inc., member New York Stock Exchange/SIPC. All rights reserved. International Headquarters: The Raymond James Financial Center | 880 Carillon Parkway | St. Petersburg, Florida 33716 | 800-248-8863 Problem #3: Iraq’s Mysterious Production Surge
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© 2013 Raymond James & Associates, Inc., member New York Stock Exchange/SIPC. All rights reserved. International Headquarters: The Raymond James Financial Center | 880 Carillon Parkway | St. Petersburg, Florida 33716 | 800-248-8863 8 Efficiency Gains are Driving Growth U.S. Research Published by Raymond James & Associates U.S. Research © 2016 Raymond James & Associates, Inc., member New York Stock Exchange/SIPC. All rights reserved. International Headquarters: The Raymond James Financial Center | 880 Carillon Parkway | St. Petersburg, Florida 33716 | 800-248-8863
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© 2013 Raymond James & Associates, Inc., member New York Stock Exchange/SIPC. All rights reserved. International Headquarters: The Raymond James Financial Center | 880 Carillon Parkway | St. Petersburg, Florida 33716 | 800-248-8863 U.S. Supply Down in 2016, Rebound Big by 2018 9 U.S. Research Published by Raymond James & Associates U.S. Research © 2016 Raymond James & Associates, Inc., member New York Stock Exchange/SIPC. All rights reserved. International Headquarters: The Raymond James Financial Center | 880 Carillon Parkway | St. Petersburg, Florida 33716 | 800-248-8863 U.S. Rigs Y/Y U.S. Oil Supply
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© 2013 Raymond James & Associates, Inc., member New York Stock Exchange/SIPC. All rights reserved. International Headquarters: The Raymond James Financial Center | 880 Carillon Parkway | St. Petersburg, Florida 33716 | 800-248-8863 U.S. Oil Supply Bottoms in Late-2016 10 U.S. Research Published by Raymond James & Associates U.S. Research © 2016 Raymond James & Associates, Inc., member New York Stock Exchange/SIPC. All rights reserved. International Headquarters: The Raymond James Financial Center | 880 Carillon Parkway | St. Petersburg, Florida 33716 | 800-248-8863 Estimates * Assuming 500 Average U.S. Rigs in 2016
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© 2013 Raymond James & Associates, Inc., member New York Stock Exchange/SIPC. All rights reserved. International Headquarters: The Raymond James Financial Center | 880 Carillon Parkway | St. Petersburg, Florida 33716 | 800-248-8863 OIL DEMAND IS NOT THE PROBLEM 11 U.S. Research Published by Raymond James & Associates U.S. Research © 2016 Raymond James & Associates, Inc., member New York Stock Exchange/SIPC. All rights reserved. International Headquarters: The Raymond James Financial Center | 880 Carillon Parkway | St. Petersburg, Florida 33716 | 800-248-8863
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© 2013 Raymond James & Associates, Inc., member New York Stock Exchange/SIPC. All rights reserved. International Headquarters: The Raymond James Financial Center | 880 Carillon Parkway | St. Petersburg, Florida 33716 | 800-248-8863 12 U.S. Research Published by Raymond James & Associates U.S. Research © 2016 Raymond James & Associates, Inc., member New York Stock Exchange/SIPC. All rights reserved. International Headquarters: The Raymond James Financial Center | 880 Carillon Parkway | St. Petersburg, Florida 33716 | 800-248-8863 Yes, Long-Term Efficiency Trends Are Real
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© 2013 Raymond James & Associates, Inc., member New York Stock Exchange/SIPC. All rights reserved. International Headquarters: The Raymond James Financial Center | 880 Carillon Parkway | St. Petersburg, Florida 33716 | 800-248-8863 13 U.S. Research Published by Raymond James & Associates U.S. Research Source: IEA, Raymond James Research © 2016 Raymond James & Associates, Inc., member New York Stock Exchange/SIPC. All rights reserved. International Headquarters: The Raymond James Financial Center | 880 Carillon Parkway | St. Petersburg, Florida 33716 | 800-248-8863 Oil Demand Recovering From Crisis & $100 Oil
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© 2013 Raymond James & Associates, Inc., member New York Stock Exchange/SIPC. All rights reserved. International Headquarters: The Raymond James Financial Center | 880 Carillon Parkway | St. Petersburg, Florida 33716 | 800-248-8863 14 U.S. Research Published by Raymond James & Associates U.S. Research © 2016 Raymond James & Associates, Inc., member New York Stock Exchange/SIPC. All rights reserved. International Headquarters: The Raymond James Financial Center | 880 Carillon Parkway | St. Petersburg, Florida 33716 | 800-248-8863 Cheap Gasoline is Slowing U.S. Efficiency Trend
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© 2013 Raymond James & Associates, Inc., member New York Stock Exchange/SIPC. All rights reserved. International Headquarters: The Raymond James Financial Center | 880 Carillon Parkway | St. Petersburg, Florida 33716 | 800-248-8863 15 Driving Trends Are Changing Why the Stagnation? -Urbanization? -Demographics? -Low Employment? -High Gasoline Prices? -Internet? U.S. Research Published by Raymond James & Associates U.S. Research © 2016 Raymond James & Associates, Inc., member New York Stock Exchange/SIPC. All rights reserved. International Headquarters: The Raymond James Financial Center | 880 Carillon Parkway | St. Petersburg, Florida 33716 | 800-248-8863
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© 2013 Raymond James & Associates, Inc., member New York Stock Exchange/SIPC. All rights reserved. International Headquarters: The Raymond James Financial Center | 880 Carillon Parkway | St. Petersburg, Florida 33716 | 800-248-8863 So, U.S. Gasoline Demand Is Responding! Published by Raymond James & Associates U.S. Research © 2016 Raymond James & Associates, Inc., member New York Stock Exchange/SIPC. All rights reserved. International Headquarters: The Raymond James Financial Center | 880 Carillon Parkway | St. Petersburg, Florida 33716 | 800-248-8863 16 What ?
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© 2013 Raymond James & Associates, Inc., member New York Stock Exchange/SIPC. All rights reserved. International Headquarters: The Raymond James Financial Center | 880 Carillon Parkway | St. Petersburg, Florida 33716 | 800-248-8863 17 China Problem Overstated ! U.S. Research Published by Raymond James & Associates U.S. Research © 2016 Raymond James & Associates, Inc., member New York Stock Exchange/SIPC. All rights reserved. International Headquarters: The Raymond James Financial Center | 880 Carillon Parkway | St. Petersburg, Florida 33716 | 800-248-8863
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© 2013 Raymond James & Associates, Inc., member New York Stock Exchange/SIPC. All rights reserved. International Headquarters: The Raymond James Financial Center | 880 Carillon Parkway | St. Petersburg, Florida 33716 | 800-248-8863 18 U.S. Research Published by Raymond James & Associates U.S. Research © 2016 Raymond James & Associates, Inc., member New York Stock Exchange/SIPC. All rights reserved. International Headquarters: The Raymond James Financial Center | 880 Carillon Parkway | St. Petersburg, Florida 33716 | 800-248-8863 We Think Global Oil Demand is Stout!
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© 2013 Raymond James & Associates, Inc., member New York Stock Exchange/SIPC. All rights reserved. International Headquarters: The Raymond James Financial Center | 880 Carillon Parkway | St. Petersburg, Florida 33716 | 800-248-8863 19 U.S. Research Published by Raymond James & Associates U.S. Research © 2016 Raymond James & Associates, Inc., member New York Stock Exchange/SIPC. All rights reserved. International Headquarters: The Raymond James Financial Center | 880 Carillon Parkway | St. Petersburg, Florida 33716 | 800-248-8863 Where Does That Leave Our Global Oil Model? (Assumes No Additional Interruptions)
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© 2013 Raymond James & Associates, Inc., member New York Stock Exchange/SIPC. All rights reserved. International Headquarters: The Raymond James Financial Center | 880 Carillon Parkway | St. Petersburg, Florida 33716 | 800-248-8863 20 U.S. Research Published by Raymond James & Associates U.S. Research © 2016 Raymond James & Associates, Inc., member New York Stock Exchange/SIPC. All rights reserved. International Headquarters: The Raymond James Financial Center | 880 Carillon Parkway | St. Petersburg, Florida 33716 | 800-248-8863 When Will Oil Prices Improve? Source: IEA, Raymond James Estimates
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© 2013 Raymond James & Associates, Inc., member New York Stock Exchange/SIPC. All rights reserved. International Headquarters: The Raymond James Financial Center | 880 Carillon Parkway | St. Petersburg, Florida 33716 | 800-248-8863 U.S. Research Published by Raymond James & Associates © 2016 Raymond James & Associates, Inc., member New York Stock Exchange/SIPC. All rights reserved. International Headquarters: The Raymond James Financial Center | 880 Carillon Parkway | St. Petersburg, Florida 33716 | 800-248-8863 Our Oil Price Outlook 21
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© 2013 Raymond James & Associates, Inc., member New York Stock Exchange/SIPC. All rights reserved. International Headquarters: The Raymond James Financial Center | 880 Carillon Parkway | St. Petersburg, Florida 33716 | 800-248-8863 Bearish: Will We Run Out of Storage Capacity? Will U.S. Efficiency Gains Continue? Does Saudi Have More Capacity? Hyperbolic U.S. $ Risk? Bullish: Will OPEC Cut? Will Non-US, Non-OPEC Supply Fall More/Sooner? Middle East Production Risk Still Exists! U.S. Research Published by Raymond James & Associates © 2016 Raymond James & Associates, Inc., member New York Stock Exchange/SIPC. All rights reserved. International Headquarters: The Raymond James Financial Center | 880 Carillon Parkway | St. Petersburg, Florida 33716 | 800-248-8863 Where Could We Be Wrong on Oil? 22
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© 2013 Raymond James & Associates, Inc., member New York Stock Exchange/SIPC. All rights reserved. International Headquarters: The Raymond James Financial Center | 880 Carillon Parkway | St. Petersburg, Florida 33716 | 800-248-8863 U.S. Research Published by Raymond James & Associates Non-OPEC, Non-U.S. Oil Supply Big Wildcard! © 2016 Raymond James & Associates, Inc., member New York Stock Exchange/SIPC. All rights reserved. International Headquarters: The Raymond James Financial Center | 880 Carillon Parkway | St. Petersburg, Florida 33716 | 800-248-8863 23 Source: IEA, Raymond James Research
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© 2013 Raymond James & Associates, Inc., member New York Stock Exchange/SIPC. All rights reserved. International Headquarters: The Raymond James Financial Center | 880 Carillon Parkway | St. Petersburg, Florida 33716 | 800-248-8863 24 Global Capex Down 30+% Two Years in a Row U.S. Research Published by Raymond James & Associates U.S. Research © 2016 Raymond James & Associates, Inc., member New York Stock Exchange/SIPC. All rights reserved. International Headquarters: The Raymond James Financial Center | 880 Carillon Parkway | St. Petersburg, Florida 33716 | 800-248-8863 Source: IEA, Raymond James Research
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© 2013 Raymond James & Associates, Inc., member New York Stock Exchange/SIPC. All rights reserved. International Headquarters: The Raymond James Financial Center | 880 Carillon Parkway | St. Petersburg, Florida 33716 | 800-248-8863 ♦ Oil prices ugly in 2015/16, better in 2017/18 ♦ U.S. can find a lot of oil @ $60-$70 ♦ U.S. rig activity down 2016, surges in 2017/18 ♦ Oil Market Wildcards U.S. Research Published by Raymond James & Associates © 2016 Raymond James & Associates, Inc., member New York Stock Exchange/SIPC. All rights reserved. International Headquarters: The Raymond James Financial Center | 880 Carillon Parkway | St. Petersburg, Florida 33716 | 800-248-8863 Conclusion 25
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© 2016 Raymond James & Associates, Inc., member New York Stock Exchange/SIPC. All rights reserved. International Headquarters: The Raymond James Financial Center | 880 Carillon Parkway | St. Petersburg, Florida 33716 | 800-248-8863 26
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© 2016 Raymond James & Associates, Inc., member New York Stock Exchange/SIPC. All rights reserved. International Headquarters: The Raymond James Financial Center | 880 Carillon Parkway | St. Petersburg, Florida 33716 | 800-248-8863 27
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© 2016 Raymond James & Associates, Inc., member New York Stock Exchange/SIPC. All rights reserved. International Headquarters: The Raymond James Financial Center | 880 Carillon Parkway | St. Petersburg, Florida 33716 | 800-248-8863 28
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© 2016 Raymond James & Associates, Inc., member New York Stock Exchange/SIPC. All rights reserved. International Headquarters: The Raymond James Financial Center | 880 Carillon Parkway | St. Petersburg, Florida 33716 | 800-248-8863 29
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