1. French new census : method and utilization IPUMS Workshop 9 june 2006 - Paris

2. IPUMS Workshop – 9 june 2006 Plan  Methodology overview  The first new census surveys 2004 and 2005  Methodology for estimation  How to use the data ?  Some questions due to rolling surveys :  Age structure  Flow data  Migration  Economic data

3. IPUMS Workshop – 9 june 2006 Methodology overview

4. IPUMS Workshop – 9 june 2006 France numbers almost 36 000 communes under 10 000 inhabitants (almost 30 millions inhabitants). These communes have been spread into 5 groups WHEN ? WHO ? HOW ? HOW MUCH ? Each year, in january and february One group enumerated each year, More than 7 000 communes Survey on every inhabitant of the communes of the group. In 2004, every inhabitant in the communes of first group, In 2005, every inhabitant in the communes of second group, etc. Over 5 years, every inhabitant of the communes under 10 000 inhabitants is enumerated Communes under 10 000 inhab.

5. IPUMS Workshop – 9 june 2006 Communes under 10 000 inhab. › Five groups : –Regional representativity (population and dwellings) › Each year : full enumeration in the communes of the group › Including institutions

6. IPUMS Workshop – 9 june 2006 France numbers almost 900 communes over 10 000 inhabitants : near 30 millions inhabitants WHEN ? WHO ? HOW ? HOW MUCH ? Every commune every year Survey on a 8 % of the dwellings Sample each year Over 5 years, 40 % of the population Is surveyed Communes over 10 000 inhab. Each year, in january and february

7. IPUMS Workshop – 9 june 2006 Large communes (> 10 000 inhab.) › Dispatching buildings in 5 balanced groups from the inventory of located buildings (RIL) › Each year, sampling addresses in the year-group to obtain 8 % of the whole commune’s dwellings › Every dwelling of the sampled buildings is enumerated › 40 % enumerated in 5 years › Special stratum for large addresses and new ones : fully enumerated

8. IPUMS Workshop – 9 june 2006 Methodology for estimation

9. IPUMS Workshop – 9 june 2006 Population estimates : communes > 10 000 › Every year Y : pop. estimate for Y-2 › 8% sample every year Y › Mobile sum of data collected during 5 latest years (Y-4 Y) › Weighted according to the average number of dwellings ~ number of dwellings Y-2

10. IPUMS Workshop – 9 june 2006 Population estimates : communes < 10 000 › Every year Y : population estimates for Y-2 : –using extrapolation based on local tax file (evolution of the number of dwellings) : for communes enumerated in Y-4 and Y-3 –census data for communes enumerated in Y-2 –using linear interpolation for communes enumerated in Y-1 and Y › Data may be weighted according to the Y-2 estimate

11. IPUMS Workshop – 9 june 2006 How to estimate population of communes < 10 000 inhab. in Y-2 ? Y-5Y-4Y-3Y-2Y-1Y I II III IV V

12. IPUMS Workshop – 9 june 2006 Use of the data

13. IPUMS Workshop – 9 june 2006 The annual survey › Use for results at a national and regional level : –Example : results of the 2004 survey › Use to calibrate cumulated data : –The annual survey gives a dated information vs period information for cumulated data

14. IPUMS Workshop – 9 june 2006 Use of the cumulated data › Detailed results at any geographical level › Communes over 10 000 inh. : –Mobile average Y-2 › Communes under 10 000 inh. : –Enumerated one time during Y-4 Y period –Two weights : ‐ Weight according to the year of their enumeration ‐ Weight according to their population estimate for Y-2

15. IPUMS Workshop – 9 june 2006 Every year (after 2008) : › Official population for every commune and administrative district › Detailed statistical results : –At every geographical level (micro data file for tabulation) –Combining data collected during the 5 last years –Relevant for the médium year (Y-2) › Overall estimations at national and regional level : based on data collected the last year

16. IPUMS Workshop – 9 june 2006 For users (after 2008) : › This is in discussion : › An annual data base at aggregate level (national and regional) from the last annual survey › Annual data bases with cumulated data on five years : –one with data detailed at geographic level, but not detailed for other classifications (occupatio, industry, country of birth or citizenship), –One with data at aggregate geographic level, but more detailed for other classifications.