1. George Wright Society Denver, CO March 11, 2013 Greg Wathen, Gulf Coastal Plains & Ozarks LCC The Southeast Conservation Adaptation Strategy: Defining a Future Conservation Landscape in the Southeastern United States

2. “The world we’re in today is undergoing as rapid a change as any in the history of mankind. Everything necessary to support the world’s population is changing at incredible rates causing increased pressure on the planet, environment, society and individuals in general,” comments Admiral Samuel J. Locklear, Commander Allied Joint Force Command, Naples. Sept 2011

3. “The conservation community faces unprecedented issues of scale, pace, and complexity in sustaining our Nation’s natural resources.” “The conservation challenges of the 21 st Century represent a force of change more far-reaching and consequential than any previously encountered.” “The world we’re in today is undergoing as rapid a change as any in the history of mankind. Everything necessary to support the world’s population is changing at incredible rates causing increased pressure on the planet, environment, society and individuals in general,” comments Admiral Samuel J. Locklear, Commander Allied Joint Force Command, Naples. Sept 2011

4. SECAS – A Future Conservation Landscape in the Southeast The Need The Process The Expectation

5. The Need: Large Disruptive Changes Impacting Conservation Urban Growth and Projections 1940 and 2030 If we had known in 1940 what we know in 2013, would we have done anything differently?

6. SLEUTH Models Slope, Land cover, Exclusion, Urbanization, Transportation, andHillshade In Tipton County, TN, urban land is projected to increase from 3% to 14% by 2060.

7. Wind PotentialUrban Patterns Solar Potential Climate Change Shale/Coal Beds Water Stress The Need: Large Disruptive Changes are Impacting Conservation

8. Given future climate projections, to what extent will mangrove forests replace salt marshes in the southeastern U.S.?

9. Resource management challenges usually transcend political and jurisdictional boundaries; particularly at a landscape scale The goals and objectives for sustainable landscapes exceed the operational reach of individual programs, agencies and organizations Complex management challenges will require a collaborative approach to develop new techniques, to share resources and expertise, and to leverage capacity Success will require transformational change from a model of competition for resources to one of collaboration in developing a desired future condition The Need: Organizational Challenges

10. Landscape Conservation Cooperatives Appalachian Caribbean Gulf Coast Prairie Gulf Coastal Plains & Ozarks Peninsular Florida South Atlantic

11. Climate Science Centers

12. SECAS – A Future Conservation Landscape in the Southeast The Need The Process – Define and Assess Ecological Systems – Define and Assess the Conservation Communities – Define the Process The Expectation

13. The Process: Define and Assess Ecological Systems Gulf Coastal Plains & Ozarks Beaches and dunes Bogs, fens, seeps Caves-karst-springs Estuarine systems Forested wetlands (mineral soils) Forested wetlands (organic soils) Freshwater aquatic Freshwater transitional Grasslands Marine Open pine woodlands and savannas Scrub-shrub Upland hardwoods and montane conifers Florida Panhandle Beach Vegetation East Gulf Coastal Plain Dune and Coastal Grassland Southeastern Coastal Plain Interdunal Wetland East Gulf Coastal Plain Interior Shrub Bog Southern Coastal Plain Herbaceous Seep and Bog West Gulf Coastal Plain Herbaceous Seep and Bog Ozark-Ouachita Fen North Floridian Caves and Karst Ozark Caves and Karst Southern Coastal Plain Spring-run Stream Aquatic Vegetation Mississippi Sound Salt and Brackish Tidal Marsh Northern Gulf of Mexico Seagrass Bed Southern Coastal Plain Blackwater River Floodplain Forest East Gulf Coastal Plain Freshwater Tidal Wooded Swamp East Gulf Coastal Plain Large River Floodplain Forest South-Central Interior Large Floodplain Mississippi River Low Floodplain (Bottomland) Forest Mississippi River High Floodplain (Bottomland) Forest Mississippi River Bottomland Depression Red River Large Floodplain Forest West Gulf Coastal Plain Large River Floodplain Forest Southern Coastal Plain Blackwater River Floodplain Forest East Gulf Coastal Plain Freshwater Tidal Wooded Swamp East Gulf Coastal Plain Large River Floodplain Forest Mississippi River Bottomland Depression Red River Large Floodplain Forest West Gulf Coastal Plain Large River Floodplain Forest South-Central Interior / Upper Coastal Plain Wet Flatwoods Lower Mississippi River Flatwoods West Gulf Coastal Plain Nonriverine Wet Hardwood Flatwoods Southern Coastal Plain Nonriverine Cypress Dome East Gulf Coastal Plain Small Stream and River Floodplain Forest Mississippi River Riparian Forest Ozark-Ouachita Riparian West Gulf Coastal Plain Small Stream and River Forest Southern Coastal Plain Seepage Swamp and Baygall East Gulf Coastal Plain Northern Seepage Swamp Interior Highlands Forested Acidic Seep West Gulf Coastal Plain Seepage Swamp and Baygall Central Interior Highlands and Appalachian Sinkhole and Depression Pond Southern Coastal Plain Nonriverine Basin Swamp East Gulf Coastal Plain Depression Pondshore (adjacent deep water) East Gulf Coastal Plain Sandhill Lakeshore Depression (adjacent deep water) Central Interior Highlands and Appalachian Lakes Central Interior Highlands and Appalachian Sinkhole and Depression Pond (adjacent deep water) Lower Mississippi River Dune Pond (adjacent deep water) Lower Mississippi Valley and West Gulf Coastal Plain Lakes West Gulf Coastal Plain Flatwoods Pond (adjacent deep water) Medium-Low-Gradient streams and Medium- sized Rivers of the Gulf Coastal Plain Mississippi River-Arkansas-Red Rivers High-gradient streams of the Ozarks-Ouachita mountains Mississippi Sound Fresh and Oligohaline Tidal Marsh East Gulf Coastal Plain Sandhill Lakeshore Depression East Gulf Coastal Plain Depression Pondshore Lower Mississippi River Dune Pond West Gulf Coastal Plain Flatwoods Pond East Gulf Coastal Plain Savanna and Wet Prairie East Gulf Coastal Plain Jackson Plain Prairie and Barrens Southern Coastal Plain Blackland Prairie and Woodland Lower Mississippi Alluvial Plain Grand Prairie Arkansas Valley Prairie and Woodland Ozark Prairie and Woodland West Gulf Coastal Plain Northern Calcareous Prairie West Gulf Coastal Plain Southern Calcareous Prairie Gulf of Mexico Pelagic East Gulf Coastal Plain Interior Upland Longleaf Pine Woodland West Gulf Coastal Plain Upland Longleaf Pine Forest and Woodland East Gulf Coastal Plain Near-Coast Pine Flatwoods West Gulf Coastal Plain Wet Longleaf Pine Savanna and Flatwoods Florida Longleaf Pine Sandhill West Gulf Coastal Plain Stream Terrace Sandyland Longleaf Pine Woodland East Gulf Coastal Plain Interior Shortleaf Pine- Oak Forest East Gulf Coastal Plain Southern Loblolly- Hardwood Flatwoods Crowley's Ridge Sand Forest Ozark-Ouachita Shortleaf Pine-Oak Forest and Woodland Ozark-Ouachita Shortleaf Pine-Bluestem Woodland West Gulf Coastal Plain Sandhill Oak and Shortleaf Pine Forest and Woodland West Gulf Coastal Plain Pine-Hardwood Flatwoods West Gulf Coastal Plain Pine-Hardwood Forest Panhandle Florida Limestone Glade Central Interior Highlands Dry Acidic Glade and Barrens Central Interior Highlands Calcareous Glade and Barrens Ouachita Novaculite Glade and Woodland West Gulf Coastal Plain Weches Glade South-Central Saline Glade West Gulf Coastal Plain Catahoula Barrens West Gulf Coastal Plain Nepheline Syenite Glade East Gulf Coastal Plain Dry Chalk Bluff Southern Coastal Plain Sinkhole Central Interior Acidic Cliff and Talus Central Interior Calcareous Cliff and Talus East Gulf Coastal Plain Maritime Forest Southern Coastal Plain Hydric Hammock East Gulf Coastal Plain Northern Loess Bluff Forest East Gulf Coastal Plain Southern Loess Bluff Forest Mississippi River Alluvial Plain Dry-Mesic Loess Slope Forest Crowley's Ridge Mesic Loess Slope Forest East Gulf Coastal Plain Maritime Forest South-Central Interior Mesophytic Forest Southern Coastal Plain Oak Dome and Hammock Southern Coastal Plain Dry Upland Hardwood Forest East Gulf Coastal Plain Northern Loess Plain Oak-Hickory Upland East Gulf Coastal Plain Northern Dry Upland Hardwood Forest Southern Coastal Plain Limestone Forest South-Central Interior / Upper Coastal Plain Flatwoods Lower Mississippi River Dune Woodland and Forest Ouachita Montane Oak Forest Ozark-Ouachita Dry Oak Woodland Ozark-Ouachita Dry-Mesic Oak Forest East Gulf Coastal Plain Northern Mesic Hardwood Slope Forest Southern Coastal Plain Mesic Slope Forest Ozark-Ouachita Mesic Hardwood Forest West Gulf Coastal Plain Mesic Hardwood Forest SE Gap Level 3 Classification Broadly Defined Ecological Systems

14. The Process: Define and Assess Conservation Communities, Other Communities of Practice Some Traditional Conservation Communities – State F&W Agencies – Federal Land Managing Agencies – LCCs – Joint Ventures – Fish Habitat Partnerships – NGO’s – Coop Units – Universities – Land Trusts – Cultural Resources Expanding to other Communities of Practice – Community Planning (APA) – Transportation Sector – Energy Sector – Others?

15. Defining the Process – Build a decision framework, allowing for adaptive responses to alternative futures – Develop conceptual models which demonstrate system functionality, including drivers and stressors on system integrity. – Establish measurable outcomes of system sustainability and viability (conservation targets). – Incorporate global change (urbanization, climate, etc.) processes, and assess vulnerability of systems – alternative scenarios.

16. Defining the Process – Establish thresholds for systems, and assess system vulnerability to stressors. – Design spatially explicit, sustainable systems. – Incorporate social sciences into the process (decision theories, value of ecosystem services, etc.). – Focus on both natural systems, and coupled human-natural systems, engaging other communities of practice (community planning, transportation, energy, etc.) into the conservation planning process.

17. SECAS – A Future Conservation Landscape in the Southeast The Need The Process The Expectation – A Way of Working, Thinking, and Making Decisions

18. Current Conservation Estate SECAS is not about a map

19. Defining a Sustainable Landscape For 2060 Southern Forest Futures Project Florida 2060

20. The Future is Not Always Clear What is your risk tolerance?

21. Southeast Conservation Adaptation Strategy Want to get involved? – http://griffingroups.com/groups/profile/1500/secas http://griffingroups.com/groups/profile/1500/secas