1. Simulation in Operational Research form Fine Details to System Analysis

2. Operational Research as DST A system (mainly systems of system) are a composition of many small interacting fine details Operations Analysis is a tool to support decision making and as such should provide realistic and accurate evaluation Both God and the Devil are in the fine details

3. Large System Characteristics It is impossible to provide a generic representation of all systems Descriptive characteristics include: – Many individual components – Some components react asynchronously – There is no single “motivation” for all components – Interaction time vary And it is not RANDOM

4. System of Systems Representation Representing Large Systems as Systems of Systems is a “simplification approach” Individual “encapsulated” components with a singled controlled motivation can be represented as an individual system Large number interactions cannot be collected to a single representation unless we go to Thermodynamics which is much larger numbers

5. Large Scale & Complex Systems Large scale long acting systems are “difficult” to formulate Interactions of Systems over time with accumulating varying feedbacks constantly change and are difficult to formulate The Mathematical approaches left are – Numerical analysis – Simulation

6. The Advantage of Simulation Simulation as a form of numerical analysis Simulation has several advantages: – Easy to visualize – Can be interactive – Simple to understand the effects Therefore easy to control and modify

7. Warfare Management an Example of a complex System of Systems

8. The Combat Theater The Combat Theater is a large ever-changing system Multi dimensional interaction change the behavior over time Advance command and control systems, precision collection assets, and precision weapon constantly affect behavior Targets Behavior Collection Assets Targets for Attack Fire AssetsBDA Targets Behavior Collection Assets Targets for Attack Fire AssetsBDA Target Doctrine Own Force Doctrine New Target Doctrine New Own Force Doctrine

9. High Resolution Simulation The multiple interaction and the changing environment over time requires high resolution simulation of all elements in the “system” – High resolution yes – High fidelity sometimes Only the high resolution simulation can account for all interactions and the changing interactions

10. Simulating Bottom Up Simulation of all interactions requires the simulation of: – All entities: Systems, Platforms, Commanders – Behaviors The simulation represents all mapped interactions and therefore considers changes over time

11. Representation of the Entities The Bottom up simulation requires for the representation of all entities: – Specific systems (Sensors, Weapons, communication) – Individual platforms (Size, maneuverability, visibility, carried systems) – Behavior (How to use the capabilities) Also groups are represented and have a dedicated behavior

12. Hierarchical Representation of Systems Interacting systems may be represented as systems of systems Knowledge representation can be easily represented as interacting State Machines Each machine represents a single entity but affects directly and indirectly others

13. Using Our Knowledge The difficulty in representing the individual “behavior” of each system is simple Knowledge can be gathered to represent each individual system: – Objectives – Means of operations – Reactions – Affects on others

14. Simulating the Whole Arena The Combat Theater is represented by: – Multiple parallel asynchronous interactions – Interactions are repeated – The arena and elements in the arena change as part of the interactions – There are constant feedbacks between the interactions – Knowledge is learned so effects and behaviors are different The only way to evaluate the arena is to fully simulate it

15. Behavior Knowledgebase The Complete Simulation Cycle Actions Controllers The Simulated Arena Situation Perception “Brain” Own Platform Knowledge Motion Model Sensor Activation ECM Activation Weapon Discharge Communication Weapons ECM Target Selection Sensors Motion Directive Own Platform Knowledge Own Platform Knowledge

16. Supporting Operations Research Aspects of the simulated arena are exported to offline analysis Analysis can consider individual scenarios, multiple re-runs, specific aspects of the scenario

17. Summary Simulation is a tool providing the data for Operational Analysis: – Computing individual effects – Enabling visualization – Enabling multiple interactions The important thing is to use simulation to realistically generate the arena and not statistically represent the arena loosing the importance of simulation