1. Que reste t’il de l’OPEP Olivier APPERT Senior adviser Ifri - Centre for Energy President of the French Energy Council Université Paris Dauphine 8 mars 2016

2. 2 Production costs

3. A financial challenge for producing countries Pump price for diesel fuel (US$ per liter) Pump price for gasoline (US$ per liter) Source: World Bank Indicators Energy subsidies weigh on fiscal balances Source: IMF, Deutsche Bank Fiscal breakeven price Source: APICORP

4. Uncertainties on future production of several OPEC members Crude oil production 2011-2015 Million barrels/day Source: BP * data for 2015 are taken from IEA OMR (September 2015)

5. Shifting alliances in the Middle East? Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iran, US… Les conflits au Moyen-Orient, Source: Ifri, Ramsès 2016

6. How will the Oil cost curve evolve? 6

7. LTO breakeven price is decreasing while conventional oil cost is increasing 7

8. US operators have responded to the current environment by slashing Capex 8

9. Monthly crude oil production and rig count in DPR regions 9

10. Initial production rates in tight oil formations continue to rise 10

11. A new paradigm for the Oil market -1928-1973 The Seven Sisters -1973-2014 OPEC -2014-? The US swing producer

12. A cyclical market Primary energy demand growth and fuel type IEA – New Policies Scenarios 2012-2040 Source: IEA- WEO 2014 4 Years Brent price cycles (Max/min/max) 100=initial cotation 09/2000 - 08/2004

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