1. 2016 ADME Conference Plenary #3 (1:00-2:15). Admissions Issues and Enrollment Shifts:. Four Trends That May Portend the Future. Tom Tanner ATS Commission Staff

2. ATS Enrollment Trends What the Last Decade Says About the Next Decade 2 “ Never be afraid to trust an unknown future to a known God.” Corrie ten Boom

3. But first … 20 Years of Change at ATS 19962016 Number of member schools196270 (up 38% or 74*) Number (%) that are evangelical 58 (30%)122 (45% or 64/74) Number (%) that are embedded 40 (21%) 95 (36%) Number (%) that are Canadian 36 (19%) 40 (15%) Number (%) dually accredited125 (64%)176 (68%) Total headcount enrollment68,70272,116 (up 5%) # (%) of racial/ethnic students18,558 (29%) 26,100 (40%) # of full-time faculty 2,885 (15/school) 3,519 (13/school) * Net gain of ATS schools added in previous 20-year period (1976-1996) was three! The 2 nd most schools added during a 20-year period was 1956-1976 (123 to 193). ATS Commission on Accrediting: 2016 ESDC

4. But first … 20 Years of Change at ATS 19962016 MDiv students (# schools)27,876 (194)29,914 (267—up 7%) Prof MA students (# schools)7,471 (100)11,988 (236—up 60%) Acad MA students (# schools)7,101 (144)10,106 (231—up 42%) DMin students (# schools)7,887 (103)8,924 (150)—up 14%) # of Degree Programs7741,475 (up 91%) # of Ext. Sites (# schools)30 (16)250 (85) # of Schools w/ Distance Ed. 0168* (1/3 of all students) # of Petitions 35120** * 168 = 63% of 270 members; 139 “comprehensive DE” (57% of 245 accredited) ** 332 petitions since 2013: 34% for new degrees, 25% for exceptions/experiments ATS Commission on Accrediting: 2016 ESDC

5. ATS Enrollment Trends What the Last Decade Says about the Next Decade Four enrollment trends that portend our future? If enrollment trends over last decade continue, during the next decade we could have for the first time… 1)More MA students than MDiv students (by 2022) 2)More minority students than white (by 2025) 3)More 50+ students than 20 somethings (by 2020) 4)More online students than on-campus? (by 2020) (meaning majority of students taking at least one class online) Next few slides show how that could happen, looking at downward, upward, and steady trends in enrollment among ATS schools 5

6. ATS Enrollment Ten-Year Trends: Downward 6 Much of professional graduate education down since 2009 recession (law down most—20%) 2015 increase is 1 st in 10 years (not due to new schools)

7. ATS Enrollment Ten-Year Trends: Downward 7 Just over half of the total decline; Since 2009, non-degree down 31% (degree completions up 3%)

8. ATS Enrollment Ten-Year Trends: Downward 8 Decline in non-degree students and MDiv students accounts for virtually all losses since 2006 What does decade-long decline in MDiv mean for future of DMin admissions?

9. ATS Enrollment Ten-Year Trends: Upward 9 1) Residency was reduced in 2012 Standards [1/2  1/3, plus 34 exceptions granted] 2) Fewer faiths requiring MDiv for ordination [80% of Prof MA students evangelical] Only degree category with more women than men (55% vs. 1/3) Women are 21% of DMin (DMin women up 13%) (DMin men down 6%)

10. ATS Enrollment Ten-Year Trends: Upward 10 Revised standards in 2012: no residency [67% of Academic MA students evangelical]

11. ATS Enrollment Ten-Year Trends: Upward 11 If trends continue, MAs may surpass MDiv by 2022 (at ca. 26,000) Does MDiv or equivalency for DMin admissions need review? DMin apps up 18%; Enrollees up 12%

12. ATS Enrollment Ten-Year Trends: Mixed 12 2012 spike mostly 2 schools (also residency reduced) 151 DMin schools (avg. = 59; median = 31): 1 has over 1,000 (1,007)23 have 50-99 (2,153) 6 have 200-500 (1,710)53 have 20-49 (1,672) 17 have 100-199 (2,453)51 have 1-19 (531) 24 (16% w/ 58%) (5,170)127 (84% w/ 42%) (4,356)

13. ATS Enrollment Ten-Year Trends: Mixed 13 THIS PAST YEAR: 74 (49%) DMin schools grew by average of 9 students 10 (7%) DMin schools stayed same 67 (44%) DMin schools declined by avg. of 10 students

14. ATS Enrollment Ten-Year Trends: Mixed 14 THE PAST 10 YEARS: Evangelical – up 7% (52% of DMin schools; 70% of students) Mainline – down 17% (40% of DMin schools; 27% of students) Cath/Orth – down 15% (8% of DMin schools; 3% of students)

15. ATS Enrollment Ten-Year Trends: Upward 15 While total enrollment declines, completions increase (DMin enrollment down 1%; DMin completions up 23%!)

16. 2015 Grads Within how many years* 75 th Percentile 50 th Percentile 25 th Percentile All Degrees Varies 70%60%45% MDiv 6 years 80%67%50% Professional MA 4 years 75%55%40% Academic MA 4 years 80%60%40% DMin 6 years 75%55%33% ThM/STM 2 years 100%75%50% PhD/ThD 8 years 67%50%40% *NOTE: Graduation rates based on 2x degree duration (e.g., 6 years for 3-year MDiv). 16 ATS Enrollment Trends: Graduation Rates

17. [Median data reported from one year prior] All Schools 2015 All Schools 2014 All Schools 2013 All Schools 2012 All Degrees77%74%75% MDiv81%78%80%78% Professional MA71%66%67%71% Academic MA70%68%66% DMin71%66%67%83% ThM/PhD/ThD71%70%72%73% NOTE: Placement rates include “placed” in (paid and unpaid) vocations + further study. 17 ATS Enrollment Trends: Placement Rates

18. ATS Enrollment Ten-Year Trends: Downward 18 Decline in white enrollment roughly equal to decline in total enrollment; but slight increase this year (?)

19. ATS Enrollment Ten-Year Trends: Upward 19 Slight decline (1.6%) since 2012 due mainly to decreases in African- American and international students If present trends continue, minority may be majority by 2025 (25% of member schools are now) DMin has had majority minority enrollment since 2012 (now 52%)

20. ATS Enrollment Ten-Year Trends: Mixed 20 20s down 12%; 40s down 21% 30s up 3%; 50+s up 6% (50+s may surpass 20s by 2020) (but may not hold due to 40s)

21. ATS Enrollment Ten-Year Trends: Upward 21 * Totals for last three years adjusted to account for obvious omissions and because the question changed last year from annual to fall enrollment; these totals reflect adjustment to annual count. * 1 in 10 1 in 5 1 in 4 1 in 3 1 in 2 by 2020? Most schools now online (168 of 270 = 63%) [139 (57%) with “Comp DE”] * *

22. ATS Enrollment Trends What the Last Decade Says about the Next Decade 22 Ten years ago typical student… white in 20s pursuing an MDiv on campus Ten years from now…? minority over 50 pursuing an MA online “Never be afraid to trust an unknown future to a known God.” Corrie ten Boom