1. conferenceboard.ca Marie-Christine Bernard Associate Director, Provincial and Territorial Forecast Service, The Conference Board of Canada November 17, 2015 Employment Outlook for Canada and Alberta: Opportunities in the Resource Sector

2. 2 With this project the Conference Board of Canada assessed labour market demand associated with Canada’s major resource development projects over the next 10 years We identified projected future job openings by occupation and by region This information can help inform Aboriginal leaders and policymakers to ensure that the Aboriginal labour force has access to the training required to take advantage of the upcoming opportunities in Canada’s resource sector Our analysis focused solely on labour market needs in resource extraction We did not include occupations related to the development phase of resource extraction projects Background Information on Research Project

3. 3 The Conference Board compiled a list of close to 115 of Canada’s largest and most important proposed natural resource projects. Not a full list of every project that will move ahead over the next decade but they represent the majority of likely new major investment spending given current and expected market conditions. Value of the major projects –In total, investment spending is estimate to be $342 billion over the next ten years. –About $240 billion are energy related projects and will occur mainly in Alberta –About $68 billion are mineral mines. –$17 billion (energy and minerals) are in the territories. Major Natural Resource Projects

4. 4 Investment Distribution by Region Source: The Conference Board of Canada

5. 5 Investment on Major Projects by Sector Source: The Conference Board of Canada; Public Information Released by Companies

6. 6 To derive labour demand, we estimated the economic impact of the major projects expected to get underway in the resource sector. We used our detailed econometric forecasting models for each of the 10 provincial economies and three territories to establish a forecast for the resource sector from 2015 to 2025. With a forecast for output in hand we were able to derive an employment forecast. We broke out the employment forecast in two groups: expansion and replacement demand. Finally we broke down the forecast results even further by estimating the demand for workers by occupation. Methodology

7. 7 I will be presenting the results for Canada and Alberta. We want to know where labour demand pressures are going to be felt. This will help to establish what trades and skills will be most in demand as a result of the expansion in the resource sector and the ageing of the workforce. Results

8. 8 Results for Canada

9. 9 Where are oil prices headed? WTI Crude Price, US$ per barrel Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis The Conference Board of Canada. 46 % drop

10. 10 Canada: Oil Production. (million of barrels per day) Source: Statistics Canada; The Conference Board of Canada.

11. 11 Canada: Natural Gas Production. (billion cubic feet per day) Source: Statistics Canada; The Conference Board of Canada.

12. 12 Metals and Precious Metals Prices (2015=100) Sources: The Conference Board of Canada ; World Bank.

13. 13 Canada: Metal Mining Output has favourable prospects. (metal mining output, $2007 billions) Source: Statistics Canada; The Conference Board of Canada.

14. 14 Canada: Non Metal Mining Output Expected to Rise Over Long Term. (non-metallic mineral mining output, $2007 billions) Source: Statistics Canada; The Conference Board of Canada.

15. 15 Sources: Statistics Canada; The Conference Board of Canada. Canada’s Forestry and Fishing Sector Forecast ($2007 billions)

16. 16 Canada: Extraction Employment Outlook, by Industry (in 000’s) Source: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada

17. 17 Canada: Employment by Industry and Skill Level - 2014 Source: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada

18. 18 Canada: Top Occupations in the Resource Extraction Sector – 2015 to 2025 Source: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada

19. 19 Canada: Top Occupations in the Resource Extraction Sector – 2015 to 2025 Source: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada

20. 20 Canada: Top Occupations in the Resource Extraction Sector – 2015 to 2025 Source: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada

21. 21 Canada: Job Openings in the Resource Sector from 2015 to 2025, by Cause and Skill Level Source: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada

22. 22 Employment in the resource extraction sector in Canada is expected to grow just 0.2 per cent between 2014 and 2025. The oil downturn is dampening the results. Most of the new 65,000 job oppportunities in the resource extraction sector over the next decade are projected to come from workers retiring. Our long term outlook for occupations suggest that there will be demand for occupations in a diverse range of skills but the majority will require formal training or education. In many provinces, Aboriginal people are underrepresented in the resource sector workforce. Conclusion for Canada

23. 23 Results for Alberta

24. 24 Alberta: Assumptions for Mining Forecast

25. 25 Source: Statistics Canada. Employment in Alberta’s Mining Sector (number of people)

26. 26 Sources: Statistics Canada; The Conference Board of Canada. Alberta’s Mining Sector Forecast (millions, $2007)

27. 27 Source: Statistics Canada. Employment in Alberta’s Forestry Sector (number of people)

28. 28 Sources: Statistics Canada; The Conference Board of Canada. Alberta’s Forestry Sector Forecast (millions, $2007)

29. conferenceboard.ca Alberta: Occupation Breakdown of Hiring Needs in Resource Sector, 2015 – 2025 Aged 55 or over Expansion Interprovincial Migration Other Replacement Demand Job Openings (per cent)(sum) Occupation 20112015-2025 SKILL 1. Financial auditors and accountants15781,1189962,193A 2. Heavy equipment operators (except crane) 16-749541,2132,092C 3. Petroleum engineers1111,1868272,013A 4. Contractors and supervisors, oil and gas drilling and services 13-3111,0691,2311,989B 5. Transport truck drivers23-1387691,3491,979C 6. Managers in natural resources production and fishing 15-209736901,644M 7. Petroleum, gas and chemical process operators 13-928578301,595B 8. Geoscientists and oceanographers211036907191,512A 9. Senior managers - construction, transportation, production and utilities 26954135941,103M 10. Purchasing agents and officers16454835651,094B

30. conferenceboard.ca Alberta: Occupation Breakdown of Hiring Needs in Resource Sector, 2015 – 2025 Aged 55 or over Expansion Interprovincial Migration Other Replacement Demand Job Openings (per cent)(sum) Occupation 20112015-2025 SKILL 11. Administrative officers20-31345560873B 12. Administrative assistants22-34332573871B 13. Oil and gas well drillers, servicers, testers and related workers 6-877993706822B 14. Construction millwrights and industrial mechanics 18-145378522754B 15. Accounting technicians and bookkeepers 24-12236526750B 16. Accounting and related clerks18-28327421719C 17. Power engineers and power systems operators 1331329342702B 18. Geological and mineral technologists and technicians 12-60348333621B 19. General office support workers19-41270391620C 20. Oil and gas well drilling and related workers and services operators 5-552738422607C

31. conferenceboard.ca Alberta: Occupation Breakdown of Hiring Needs in Resource Sector, 2015 – 2025 Aged 55 or over Expansion Interprovincial Migration Other Replacement Demand Job Openings (per cent)(sum) Occupation 20112015-2025 SKILL 21. Information systems analysts and consultants 1136312185534A 22. Inspectors in public and environmental health and occupational health and safety 17-29235320527B 23. Heavy-duty equipment mechanics15-75279320524B 24. Mechanical engineers1216278212505A 25. Welders and related machine operators13-156289310443B 26. Supervisors, petroleum, gas and chemical processing and utilities 22 150220392B 27. Industrial electricians15-46192236382B 28. Chemical engineers12-5224155374A 29. Financial managers1924176164363M 30. Steamfitters, pipefitters and sprinkler system installers 13-174242290358B

32. 32 Share of Alberta Workers that is Aboriginal – 2011 (per cent) Source: Statistics Canada Source: Statistics Canada

33. 33 Alberta’s Workers Age Group Distribution Source: Statistics Canada.

34. 34 Mining industry is a major employer of First Nations, Inuit and Métis people. The mining industry still tends to under-utilize this talent group. Pressure to replace retiring workers. Resource sector must compete against other sectors for talent. Conclusion

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