1. DOA-1 Intro to ADM Dr. Gorman Seminar 6

2. Problem Solving http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1_t44siFyb4

3. Intro to ADM I Why design? Problem typologies and problem solving The Army Design Methodology – Doctrine – Underlying theory – Relationship to planning, op art, strategic thinking Potential pitfalls

4. The Art of What Works Acting Effectively Under Conditions of Uncertainty Understanding Procedural Action Pragmatic Action Flux Chaos Equivocality Purpose Learning by doing Sensemaking (Plausibility) Clausewitzean “methodism”

6. Wicked Problems No definitive formulation No stopping rules Not true or false, but good or bad No immediate and no ultimate test of a solution Every solution is a one-shot operation Do not have an enumerable set of solutions Every wicked problem is essentially unique Every wicked problem is a symptom of another problem Choice of explanation determines the nature of the problem’s resolution The planner has no right to be wrong Wicked problems are not solved but re-solved, over and over again

10. Existing Conditions Guidance (orders, policy and law) Desired Conditions Scopes framing of the operational environment Environmental Frame Actors Tendencies Potentials Relationships Difference Tensions Information Themes Patterns of : - Resistance & Opposition - Support Problem Frame Problem Statement Operational Approach Potential Actions Time Space Purpose Resources Risk Areas for Intervention Areas for Exploitation Select Boundaries for Action Design Concept Narrative and graphics Possible modification of guidance The Design Methodology Divergence & Deconstruction Transformation Convergence & Reconstruction 22

11. PROBLEM FRAME DESIGN CONCEPT ENVIRONMENTAL FRAME FRAME THE ENVIRONMENT What is the context in which the design will be implemented? What’s going on? Why has this situation developed? What does it mean? What’s the real story? FRAME THE PROBLEM(S) What problems should be addressed and what must be acted upon? What are the tensions that exist? What needs to change? What doesn’t need to change? What conditions need to exist for success? What else can happen? What are the risks? DEVISE A SOLUTION How will we respond to the problem? How might we go from existing conditions to desired conditions? What parallel and sequential actions are appropriate? Priority? Three Cognitive Spaces

12. 4 Big Ideas (Theory) Behind Design 1.Learning (adaptation requires learning) – Design creates a learning system. The learning system then creates the design 2.Difference (diversity of ideas leads to better ideas) – Design is driven by a difference engine. Difference between perspectives, theories, systems and frames in design discourse generates creative tension, which is necessary for synthesis and develops deeper understanding 3.Systems (must see things as wholes) – Complex problems are complex because they require a systemic response. The goal of design is not just holistic understanding, but rather a strategy for systemic transformation 4.Social Creation (collaborative learning for complex problems) – Problems too complex for one person to understand completely depend on shared understanding. This places a premium on the management of group dynamics. Appropriate leadership, organization, facilitated discourse, and communication are essential to effective design

13. Potential Pitfalls 1.Takes too much time, especially for a busy commander 2.Who does design? (design artists vs. MDMP planners) 3.Too intellectual (ideas based in post-modernism) 4.Vocabulary requires translation; must speak “design” 5.Can’t be taught; learned through “reflective practice” 6.Oxymoronic – a doctrinal method without process 7.No stopping point or practical output; no clear relationship to planning 8.Challenges military culture 9.Problems already framed for you

14. Strengths of Design 1.Makes us to think before we act (get the problem right) 2.Uses collaborative learning for greater understanding 3.Encourages diversity of ideas for better solutions 4.Facilitates action in the face of uncertainty; doesn’t demand certainty in assessment or solution 5.Describes what the best of us have done all along

15. Practical Exercise Divide into three groups. Each group explain and advocate for their assigned interpretive category: – Traditionalists – Complex systems advocates – Integrationists

16. DOA-2 Intro to ADM II

17. Intro to ADM II: Educating Design Thinking Argo: Iran 1979 as a Design Problem Lawson: How Designers Thinking Schoen: Learning Design – Reflection in/on action (“the ladder of reflection”) – The design studio – Coaching design Alexander: Design and Decision-making

18. Iran 1979 as a Design Problem

20. The Art of What Works Acting Effectively Under Conditions of Uncertainty Understanding Procedural Action Pragmatic Action Flux Chaos Equivocality Purpose Learning by doing Sensemaking (Plausibility) Clausewitzean “methodism”

22. Videos Kathryn Schultz on being wrong Cynefin problem solving framework

23. Schoen: Educating the Reflective Practioner Why design cannot be taught Knowing in action→ reflection in action→ reflection on action→ knowing in practice The ladder of reflection The design studio Coaching an effective practicum

24. Schoen: Reciprocal Ladders of Reflection Action Reflection on Action Reflection on Reflection on Action Coach/MentorStudent Action Reflection on Action Reflection on Reflection on Action Demonstrate Imitate Observe Critique Experiment Reciprocal reflection in action leads to convergence of meaning and competent designing Meta-level Explain Process Provide Example Apply Reflection

25. Cynefin* Framework 25 DISORDER COMPLEX COMPLICATED CHAOTIC SIMPLE Probe-Sense-Respond Act-Sense-Respond Sense-Analyze-Respond Sense-Categorize-Respond UNORDERED ORDERED Cause and effect are only coherent in retrospect and do not repeat Cause and effect separated over time and space No cause and effect relationships perceivable Cause and effect relations repeatable, perceivable, and predictable *Pronounced ku–nev-in Pattern-based management Fact-based management

26. Lawson: How Designers Think The design process – The process is endless (different than puzzling) – There is no infallibly correct process – Involves finding as well as solving problems – Inevitably involves subjective value judgements – Is a prescriptive activity – Designers work in the context of a need for action (design is not an end in itself)

27. Lawson: How Designers Think Design problems – Cannot be comprehensively stated – Require subjective interpretation – Tend to be organized hierarchically Design solutions – Inexhaustible number of different solutions – No optimal solution – Often holistic responses – Are a contribution to knowledge – Are part of other design problems

28. Lawson: How Designers Think Design thinking is a skill Designers, clients, users, legislators Functions of constraints (internal vs. external) Types of constraints (radical, practical, formal, symbolic)

29. Lawson’s Model

30. DOA-3 Intro to ADM III

31. DOA-4 Understanding the Operational Environment

32. Understanding the Operational Environment I Understanding the OE in doctrine Understanding the qualitative and subjective Historical case: Prussia 1806-1813

35. Framing the Operational Environment (from AWC Campaign Planning Handbook) What’s going on? Why has this situation developed? What is causing conflict among the actors? What are the strengths and weaknesses of the relevant actors? What does it mean? Why is the situation (or the projected future situation) undesirable? What’s the real story? What conditions need to exist for success? What are indicators that we are on the path to success? What are indicators that we are going in the wrong direction?

40. Design Concept: OE Description Text and graphics describing the operational environment. – Key guidance summary. – Systems relationships diagrams that describe the environment. – Key actor relationship diagrams. – Description of what might cause key conditions to change. – Description of the desired end state. – Description of key aspects of alternative end states.

44. Prussia, 1806-07

46. DOA-5 Understanding the Operational Environment II

47. Understanding the OE (2) Mystery of a masterpiece Narrative Wargaming as narrative PE: Scharnhorst’s narrative 1806-1815

52. DOA-6 Understanding the Operational Environment III

57. Framing the Operational Environment (from AWC Campaign Planning Handbook) What’s going on? Why has this situation developed? What is causing conflict among the actors? What are the strengths and weaknesses of the relevant actors? What does it mean? Why is the situation (or the projected future situation) undesirable? What’s the real story? What conditions need to exist for success? What are indicators that we are on the path to success? What are indicators that we are going in the wrong direction?

58. OE Products for Design Concept

59. Prussia, 1806-07

61. DOA-7 Problem Framing

62. Understanding the Problem (I) Framing the Problem: Doctrine Framing the Problem: Lawson Framing the Problem: PE – Lawrence – War in the Pacific

63. A design problem? Barnes Wallis and “The Bouncing Bomb” Test footage

69. Lawson’s Model

70. Lawson: How Designers Think The design process – The process is endless (different than puzzling) – There is no infallibly correct process – Involves finding as well as solving problems – Inevitably involves subjective value judgements – Is a prescriptive activity – Designers work in the context of a need for action (design is not an end in itself)

71. Lawson: How Designers Think Design problems – Cannot be comprehensively stated – Require subjective interpretation – Tend to be organized hierarchically Design solutions – Inexhaustible number of different solutions – No optimal solution – Often holistic responses – Are a contribution to knowledge – Are part of other design problems

72. Lawson: How Designers Think Design thinking is a skill Designers, clients, users, legislators Functions of constraints (internal vs. external) Types of constraints (radical, practical, formal, symbolic)

73. Design Traps The Category Trap The Puzzle Trap The Number Trap The Icon Trap The Image Trap

77. DOA-8 Problem Framing II

80. Wicked Problems No definitive formulation No stopping rules Not true or false, but good or bad No immediate and no ultimate test of a solution Every solution is a one-shot operation Do not have an enumerable set of solutions Every wicked problem is essentially unique Every wicked problem is a symptom of another problem Choice of explanation determines the nature of the problem’s resolution The planner has no right to be wrong Wicked problems are not solved but re-solved, over and over again

81. 4 Big Ideas (Theory) Behind Design 1.Learning (adaptation requires learning) – Design creates a learning system. The learning system then creates the design 2.Difference (diversity of ideas leads to better ideas) – Design is driven by a difference engine. Difference between perspectives, theories, systems and frames in design discourse generates creative tension, which is necessary for synthesis and develops deeper understanding 3.Systems (must see things as wholes) – Complex problems are complex because they require a systemic response. The goal of design is not just holistic understanding, but rather a strategy for systemic transformation 4.Social Creation (collaborative learning for complex problems) – Problems too complex for one person to understand completely depend on shared understanding. This places a premium on the management of group dynamics. Appropriate leadership, organization, facilitated discourse, and communication are essential to effective design

82. Five “Component Technologies” Systems thinking Personal mastery Mental models Building shared vision Team learning

83. Senge’s “Wheel of Team Learning”

84. Design (Planning) as Learning

86. The 11 Laws of the Fifth Discipline Today's problems come from yesterday's "solutions." The harder you push, the harder the system pushes back. Behavior grows better before it grows worse. The easy way out usually leads back in. The cure can be worse than the disease. Faster is slower. Cause and effect are not closely related in time and space. Small changes can produce big results...but the areas of highest leverage are often the least obvious. You can have your cake and eat it too ---but not all at once. Dividing an elephant in half does not produce two small elephants. There is no blame.

87. D409 Understanding the Problem III

88. The 11 Laws of the Fifth Discipline Today's problems come from yesterday's "solutions." The harder you push, the harder the system pushes back. Behavior grows better before it grows worse. The easy way out usually leads back in. The cure can be worse than the disease. Faster is slower. Cause and effect are not closely related in time and space. Small changes can produce big results...but the areas of highest leverage are often the least obvious. You can have your cake and eat it too ---but not all at once. Dividing an elephant in half does not produce two small elephants. There is no blame.

89. 4 Big Ideas (Theory) Behind Design 1.Learning (adaptation requires learning) – Design creates a learning system. The learning system then creates the design 2.Difference (diversity of ideas leads to better ideas) – Design is driven by a difference engine. Difference between perspectives, theories, systems and frames in design discourse generates creative tension, which is necessary for synthesis and develops deeper understanding 3.Systems (must see things as wholes) – Complex problems are complex because they require a systemic response. The goal of design is not just holistic understanding, but rather a strategy for systemic transformation 4.Social Creation (collaborative learning for complex problems) – Problems too complex for one person to understand completely depend on shared understanding. This places a premium on the management of group dynamics. Appropriate leadership, organization, facilitated discourse, and communication are essential to effective design

93. D410 Understanding the Problem IV

94. Reinforcing Loop

95. Balancing Loop

96. Reinforcing Loop with Delay

97. Balancing Loop with Delay

98. Limits to Growth

99. Shifting the Burden

101. D411 Developing an Operational Approach I

102. The Art of What Works Acting Effectively Under Conditions of Uncertainty Understanding Procedural Action Pragmatic Action Flux Chaos Equivocality Purpose Learning by doing Sensemaking (Plausibility) Clausewitzean “methodism”

111. China-Burma-India

113. D412 Developing an Operational Approach II

115. Lawson’s Model

118. Design Traps The Category Trap The Puzzle Trap The Number Trap The Icon Trap The Image Trap

119. China-Burma-India

121. DOA-15: Ukraine PE http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe- 26437359 http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe- 26437359

122. DOA-16 & 17: Mali PE

123. DOA-18: Endgame in Iraq http://video.pbs.org/video/2233722597/ http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/en dgame/view/ http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/en dgame/view/

129. GEN Casey’s “Reflections” Developing vision and strategy Creating unity of effort Continuous assessment and adaptation Influencing organizational culture Civil-military interaction Political-military integration Momentum and transitions Sustaining yourself

130. The Art of What Works Acting Effectively Under Conditions of Uncertainty Understanding Procedural Action Pragmatic Action Flux Chaos Equivocality Purpose Learning by doing Sensemaking (Plausibility) Clausewitzean “methodism”

132. Tetlock on Forecasting http://fora.tv/2007/01/26/Why_Foxes_Are_B etter_Forecasters_Than_Hedgehogs http://fora.tv/2007/01/26/Why_Foxes_Are_B etter_Forecasters_Than_Hedgehogs

133. Steps to Scenario Planning 1.Identify focal issue or decision 2.Key forces in the local environment 3.Driving forces 4.Rank by importance and uncertainty 5.Selecting scenario logics 6.Fleshing out the scenarios 7.Implications 8.Selection of leading indicators and signposts