1. Contacts: Lenox.Carol@epa.gov Loughlin.Dan@epa.gov Energy, environment and climate assessment using the MARKAL energy system model U.S. EPA Office of Research and Development, National Risk Management Research Laboratory EPA: Rebecca Dodder, Cynthia Gage, Tim Johnson, Ozge Kaplan, Carol Lenox, Dan Loughlin, Tai Wu and Will Yelverton Post-Docs: Bela Deshpande, Tyler Felgenhauer and Pamela Schultz Student Interns: Colin Cameron and Aaron Lu Research activities As part of EPA ORD’s efforts to develop an understanding of the potential environmental impacts of future changes in energy use, the Energy and Climate Assessment Team has developed a database representation of the U.S. energy system for use with the MARKet ALlocation (MARKAL) model. Scenario analyses, incorporating drivers of emissions such as population growth, land-use change, energy utilization, technological advance, and adaptation and mitigation responses to climate change are performed using this MARKAL modeling framework to investigate future energy technology pathways and their associated GHG and criteria pollutant emissions, providing decision-makers with a better understanding of how a changing energy landscape will impact future air quality and contribute to meeting mitigation targets and adaptation goals. MARKAL simulates the dynamics of an energy system, representing the flow of energy and technology adoption associated with the extraction or import of resources, the conversion of these resources into useful forms, and the use of energy in meeting end-use demands. The U.S. EPA database is a set of baseline assumptions for representing U.S. energy supplies, demands, and technologies through the year 2055 in 5-year increments. The MARKAL model is used to optimize the technologies and fuels that meet energy demands within the baseline and to evaluate the effects of alternative future technology scenarios on criteria pollutant and greenhouse gas emissions. Current Scenario Analyses  Investigate the impacts of future energy and technology options on air quality and climate change  Evaluate which future energy technology pathways at a national, regional, or state scale could most effectively mitigate climate change and minimize unintended consequences  Identify key interactions between energy technology choices and adaptation policies  Illustrate how the energy system could evolve to reduce multi-media impacts and move towards sustainability  Research the effects of human choice on demand side energy use. Energy efficiency in the buildings sector Research question : How much might reduced energy use (through technology change and/or behavior change in the residential and commercial sectors) contribute to a system-wide CO 2 emissions reduction? Contribution (%) to policy-induced system CO 2 reduction Future work: Analyses of the impacts of building shell changes, energy efficient choices, and human behavior on human health and the environment. Energy Efficiency and Conservation Scenario Policy Induced CO2 Reduction Reference Scenario Water demands of future energy portfolios under a changing climate Research question : How do changes in future energy and technology options affect water consumption and withdrawals across the US? Are there trade-offs or synergies between climate mitigation strategies and water? Baseline scenario CO 2 target and light- duty vehicle electrification Net interregional embodied water flows (Bgal/yr) in 2035 for ethanol and electricity transfers Net interregional ethanol (green) and electricity (red) flows (PJ) in 2035 Future work: Examining additional energy scenarios including RPS, renewable fuels and alternative biomass/bioenergy options, changes in cooling options, etc.. Assessing the impact of water availability constraints on the evolution of the energy system and system-wide technology/fuel choices. Water consumption by sectors (Bgal/yr) Interregional trading of fuels and embodied water Key areas:  Electric power mix and cooling technology  Biomass use and production  Fossil resource extraction CO 2 reductions in heavy duty transportation Research question : What are the impacts of improved efficiency, low carbon fuels, and demand reductions on CO 2 emissions from heavy duty transportation? New light duty (TLD) regulations will shift heavy duty (THD) to be the major cause of CO 2 emissions from transportation. Future work: Analyze pathways to reduce CO 2 below 2005 levels through advanced technologies, low or zero carbon fuels, and additional demand reduction options. THD emissions can be held flat through significant efficiency gains, modest increases in lower carbon fuels (CNG & biofuels) and minor demand reductions including mode shifts. Emissions and market implications of new natural gas supplies Research question : Which end-use sectors will absorb most of the increased domestic natural gas supplies ? How do these energy- market transformations influence carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions? Future work: Analysis to consider uncertainties in supply of natural gas, emissions from supply chain, and demand. Breakthrough technology assessment Research question : What role might new and advancements in existing technologies play in meeting future energy system goals? How do the complex relationships between sectors respond to technological breakthroughs (e.g. fuel competition, load shifting) and under what conditions are certain advanced technologies most viable? Electricity output in 2050 (billion kWh) Areas of Interest:  Electricity generation  Fuel production and pathways  Energy storage Future Work: Analyzing potential breakthroughs such as advanced nuclear and renewables, energy storage, fuels production (e.g. natural gas), and novel technology combinations. Evaluating their market viability and potential for mitigating system-wide emissions, health risks, and climate change. “Straight-line” LCOE analysis Primary energy Processing and conversion of energy carriers End-use sectors MARKAL model and US EPA 9-region database - 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 20052010201520202025203020352040204520502055 Electricity production (PJ) by fuel & type Solar Wind Hydro Geothermal Municipal Solid Waste Biomass Nuclear Oil Natural Gas w/CCS Natural Gas Coal w/CCS Coal Outputs - 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 20052010201520202025203020352040204520502055 Fuel use (PJ) by sector Electricity Industry Commercial Residential Transportation Natural gas - 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 20052010201520202025203020352040204520502055 Technology penetration by end-use demand Hydrogen fuel cells Battery electric Advanced diesel Advanced E85 Plugin hybrid Hybrid gasoline-electric Advanced gasoline Conventional gasoline Light-duty vehicles (bln-VMT) 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000 20052010201520202025203020352040204520502055 Emissions (Ktonnes) by pollutant species CO2 (Mtonnes) NOx SO2 PM10 PM2.5 VOC N2O CH4 BC OC Assumptions 9-region resolution Technologies Economic growth Population & land use Climate change Policy System-wide CO 2 emissions Emissions (Mtonnes) Reference scenario Policy-induced CO 2 scenario Energy efficiency and conservation scenario Modeling framework