1. The Political Background to the Migrant Crisis Eric Kaufmann, Professor of Politics Birkbeck College, University of London e.kaufmann@bbk.ac.uk

2. The Arab Spring 2011

3. Ethnic and Sectarian Faultlines Majority Sunni Arab or Berber: Tunisia, Egypt, Libya (also Morocco, Kuwait, Algeria) Majority Shia with Sunni minority: Bahrain, Iraq Majority Sunni with Shia minority: Saudi, Yemen, Syria Ethnic divisions: Jordan, Libya Ethnic plus sectarian divisions: Lebanon, Syria Dominant Minorities: Bahrain, Jordan, Syria Democratic transition = Ethnic/Sectarian transition

6. Source of refugees 60m global refugees according to UNHCR 9.5 m displaced in Syria, 6.5m to safer parts of the country, 3m to neighbouring countries Med: 1-2 pc of lives lost. According to IOM and UNHCR estimates, around one million migrants and refugees arrived in Europe till 21 December 2015, three to four times more than in 2014IOMUNHCR The vast majority arrived by sea in Greece (816,752); 150,317 arrived by sea in Italy

7. It’s not the poorest that move At $7-8,000 per capita income, flows start to subside

12. The story so far (Nov 2015)… Last election*Current averageChange Austria2432+8 Finland17.611-6.6 France (Le Pen)17.929+11.1 Hungary (Orban)2843+15 Italy4.014+10 Netherlands10.135+25 Sweden12.923+10.1 Switzerland26.6 (2011)29.4+2.8 United Kingdom12.713+0.3