1. CalNex Forecast Prepared Sunday 27 June 2010

2. Anticipated Flights NOAA Twin Otter Sun: two flights Mon: potentially one flight? Tue: transit to LA Wed: Mexico flight CARES DOE G-1 and NASA B200 Sun: AM/PM flights likely Mon: AM/PM flights likely Tue: MISSION ACCOMPLISHED

3. Local Features - Sac area focus Sunday - synoptic flow weakens significantly, terrain driven flow with light W delta inflow coupled with upslope flow; pollutant concentrations build (Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups forecast); CANSAC appears better solution than COAMPS today; weak flow to east in Sac (downtown to T0 flow doubtful; urban flow toward T1 with long transport time) but bulk of urban flow south of T1; winds <5 kts. Monday - high pressure ridge lingering - primarily terrain driven flow; light NW to W wind coupled with upslope flow in foothills; no or limited Delta inflow; with light winds, Sac air flows south of T1; USG air quality likely. Tuesday - smoke possible from prescribed burns in Yosemite and Sequoia National Parks.

4. Synoptic Overview NOTE: FORECAST NOT UPDATED FROM SATURDAY'S CALL (only change is that ridge slower to break down and Monday will be similar to Sunday) Sunday June 27 High Pressure peaks Light and variable flow Onshore gradient weakens Monday June 28 High Pressure breaks down as Trof approaches Transport flow SW north, Southerly south Marine layer deepens in the north Light and variable flow S.CA Tue – Thurs Tue: Deep Trof approaches, SW flow throughout Wed: Trof axis over N.CA late aftn-eve, SW flow, deeper marine layer Thurs: Trof axis over Ca, W-NW flow in N.CA, W-SW in S.CA

5. GFS and ECMWF Updated Sunday, June 27, 2010

6. Analysis GFS – 00 Z Sunday – Sat 17 PDT

7. 12 hour GFS – 12 Z Sunday – 05 PDT

8. 24 hour GFS – 00 Z Monday – Sun 17 PDT

9. 36 hour GFS – 12 Z Monday – 05 PDT

10. 48 hour GFS – 00 Z Tuesday – Mon 17 PDT

11. 60 hour GFS – 12 Z Tuesday – 05 PDT

12. GFS 3 day – 00 Z Wednesday – Tue 17 PDT

13. ECMWF 3 day – 00 Z Wednesday – Tue 17 PDT

14. 3.5 day GFS – 12 Z Wednesday – 05 PDT

15. 4 day GFS – 00 Z Thursday – Wed 17 PDT

16. 4 day ECMWF – 00 Z Thursday – Wed 17 PDT

17. 5 day GFS – 00 Z Friday – Thu 17 PDT

18. 5 day ECMWF – 00 Z Friday – Thu 17 PDT

19. 1430 UTC

20. Large Scale Transport RAQMS FX updated Sunday, June 27

21. Large Scale Transport focus on Sacramento area 500m RDF FX 00Z 06/27 (Sun Afternoon) Clean air wrt transport over area (low levels of BC_OC, SO4, PM2.5, CO and O3). Moderate (5- 10ppbv/day) background O3 P-L. Minimal vertical displacement of air (descent near coast). 500m RDF FX 00Z 06/28 (Mon Afternoon) Clean air wrt transport over area (clean to low levels of BC_OC, SO4, PM2.5, CO and O3). Low (0- 5ppbv/day) background O3 P-L. Strong descent of air. focus on San Joaquin Valley 500m RDF FX 00Z 06/29 (Tue Afternoon) Generally clean air wrt transport over area (clean to low levels of BC_OC, SO4, PM2.5, CO); O3, BC_OC, and SO4 slightly higher in Kern County). Low (0-5ppbv/day) background O3 P-L. Moderate descent of air; more descent in southern portion of valley. focus on Mexico 500m RDF FX 00Z 06/30 (Wed Afternoon) Generally clean air wrt transport over area (clean to low levels of BC_OC, SO4, PM2.5, CO); Note: SO4 very high to SW and E of northern Mexico; moderate O3 levels. Low (0-5ppbv/day) background O3 P- L. Minimal vertical displacement of air.

22. 500m Black and Organic C - Sunday afternoon

23. 500m PM2.5 - Sunday afternoon

24. 500m CO - Sunday afternoon

25. 500m O3 - Sunday afternoon

26. 500m O3 Prod-Loss - Sunday afternoon

27. 500m Vertical Displacement - Sunday afternoon

28. 500m Black and Organic C - Monday afternoon

29. 500m PM2.5 - Monday afternoon

30. 500m CO - Monday afternoon

31. 500m O3 - Monday afternoon

32. 500m O3 Prod-Loss - Monday afternoon

33. 500m Vertical Displacement - Monday afternoon

34. 500m Black and Organic C - Tuesday afternoon

35. 500m PM2.5 - Tuesday afternoon

36. 500m CO - Tuesday afternoon

37. 500m O3 - Tuesday afternoon

38. 500m O3 Prod-Loss - Tuesday afternoon

39. 500m Vertical Displacement - Tuesday afternoon

40. 500m Black and Organic C - Wednesday afternoon

41. 500m PM2.5 - Wednesday afternoon

42. 500m CO - Wednesday afternoon

43. 500m O3 - Wednesday afternoon

44. 500m O3 Prod-Loss - Wednesday afternoon

45. 500m Vertical Displacement - Wednesday afternoon

46. Sulphate Large Scale Transport

47. 500m SO4 - Sunday afternoon

48. 500m SO4 - Monday afternoon

49. 500m SO4 - Tuesday afternoon

50. 500m SO4 - Wednesday afternoon

52. Northern California Observed, Model-Interpolated Winds for SF Bay http://sfports.wr.usgs.gov/cgi-bin/wind/windbin.cgi and COAMPS fine grid plots 10 M WINDS AND 10 M TRACER FROM N SF BAY THE COAMPS LOOPS PROVIDE MORE INFORMATION http://www.sccoos.org/data/coamps/coamps.html

53. http://sfports.wr.usgs.gov/cgi-bin/wind/windbin.cgi

54. 10-m wind 12 Z Sun

55. 10-m wind 18 Z Sun

56. 10-m wind 00 Z Mon

57. 10-m wind 06 Z Mon

58. 10-m wind 12 Z Mon

59. 10-m wind 18 Z Mon

60. 10-m wind 00 Z Tue

61. 10-m wind 06 Z Tue

62. 10-m wind 12 Z Tue

63. 10-m wind 18 Z Tue

64. 10-m wind 00 Z Wed

65. 205m tracer 12 Z Sun

66. 205m tracer 18 Z Sun

67. 205m tracer 00 Z Mon

68. 205m tracer 06 Z Mon

69. 205m tracer 12 Z Mon

70. 205m tracer 18 Z Mon

71. 205m tracer 00 Z Tue

72. CANSAC Initialized 00 Z Sunday

73. 10-m wind 12 Z Sun

74. 10-m wind 18 Z Sun

75. 10-m wind 00 Z Mon

76. 10-m wind 06 Z Mon

77. 10-m wind 12 Z Mon

78. 10-m wind 18 Z Mon

79. 10-m wind 00 Z Tue

80. 10-m wind 06 Z Tue

81. 10-m wind 12 Z Tue

82. 10-m wind 18 Z Tue

83. 10-m wind 00 Z Wed

85. Walnut Grove Tower Ozone Data http://tbsys.serveftp.net/wg/wgup/wgtower_o3.htm

86. Sacramento Valley (old 6/26 forecast) Sunday AM: Weak onshore flow continues to die down, generally S and below 4kt in Sac Cnty in early AM; onshore flow nonexistent; stagnation in mid morning and Sac Cnty becomes SSW2kt in late morning Early PM: Onshore flow starts to resume W10kt in the Bay; greater upslope flow in the valley - Sac Cnty at W4kt; wind shift between late morning and early afternoon provides opportunity for Downtown plume to move to T0 and T1, may miss T1 because southerly wind not strong enough Late Aftn: Onshore flow makes it way into lower Sac Cnty; upper Sac Cnty and Cool still under thermal upslope effect Evening: Onshore flow reaches the foothills, but not strong enough to go upslope to Cool PBL 500 to 1000ft in AM; PM PBL 5,000ft (S.SV) MBL below 500ft; Max aftn temp: 38C/100F; USG air quality

87. Sacramento Valley (old 6/26 forecast) Monday AM: Weak onshore flow, almost nonexistent; stagnation (SSW2kt) in Sac Cnty until thermally driven upslope flow draws W flow in late morning; W3kt flow to Cool, Sac Cnty at W2kt in late AM; Early PM: Sign of onshore flow starting up, upslope flow stronger from the W; Downtown plume brush by just south of T0 and misses T1 Late Aftn: Onshore flow reaches the delta; Downtown plume gets close to T0 (under a bit of delta wind influence) but still misses T1; T1 still experiences upslope flow from the W CANSAC transport wind shows plume will stay in Sac foothills, more northern than GFS tranjectories AM PBL 500ft; PM PBL 5,000ft MBL below 500ft; Max aftn temp: 35C/95F; USG air quality

88. Sacramento Trajectory (Sun)

89. Sacramento Trajectory (Mon)

90. San Joaquin Valley - updated June 27, 2010 Sunday June 27 Surface Winds: The surface observations this morning show thermally driven wind flow across the SJV. The Chowchilla and Visalia wind profilers indicate light and variable wind flow throughout the atmospheric profile. 0Z CANSAC shows weak onshore flow, wtih afternoon thermally driven northwesterly winds across the entire District this afternoon. Winds will become light and variable this evening. Onshore flow will weaken overnight. Boundary Layer Mixing: 0Z CANSAC indicates maximum mixing depths will be between 2,000 and 3,000 feet this afternoon. Air Quality: Moderate air quality will dominate from Madera county northward. USG air quality will prevail for Fresno, Kings, Tulare, and Kern Counties. Monday June 28 Surface Winds: Thermally driven wind flow will continue tomorrow. Northwesterly winds will be stronger tomorrow as compared to Sunday. Boundary Layer Mixing: Slightly deeper mixing depths will occur tomorrow under a little more afternoon heating. Air Quality: Moderate air quality will dominate from Madera county northward. USG air quality will prevail for Fresno, Kings, Tulare, and Kern Counties. Note: RX Burn Scheduled on Tuesday in Sequoia Kings Canyon National Park (Bobcat)

91. Central Coast NO FORECAST until operations in SoCal

92. Southern Coastal Waters NO FORECAST until operations in SoCal

93. South Coast Air Basin NO FORECAST until operations in SoCal