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2008 McGraw-Hill Construction Outlook Cliff Brewis Senior Director Editorial McGraw-Hill Construction
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2 U.S. Macroeconomic Picture
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3 World Growth Remains Strong Source: Global Insight and S&P Real GDP, % change
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4 U.S. Material Prices
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5 Points of Perspective -- U.S. Construction
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6 Major U.S. Construction Sectors (Starts)
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7 U.S. Single Family Housing
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8 Default Rates Highest In Midwest And South Source: Mortgage Bankers’ Association 2.48% to 3.47% Over 3.47% Under 2.47% Seriously Delinquent Rate, Q2
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9 California: Single Family
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10 California: Single Family Los Angeles San Diego
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11 U.S. Multifamily Housing
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12 U.S. Income Prop.-- Multifamily Housing Major metropolitan areas Multifamily Housing Top 10 Metros -- ranked by new dwelling units Year 2007 YTD %ch 07/06 1. New York -49% 2. Chicago -34% 3. Seattle +44% 4. Miami -54% 5. Orlando FL +13% 6. Atlanta -10% 7. Houston +41% 8. Los Angeles -35% 9. Washington DC -19% 10. Boston +1% Year 2006, %ch 06/05 1. New York -0- 2. Miami -22% 3. Chicago +27% 4. Los Angeles +20% 5. Dallas-Ft.Worth +32% 6. Washington DC -22% 7. Atlanta -13% 8. Orlando FL +22% 9. Seattle +41% 10. Las Vegas +22%
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13 California: Multifamily Housing
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14 California: Multi-Residential Los Angeles San Diego
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15 U.S. Commercial Bldgs. -- Stores
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16 Borrowing Against Your Home Source: Freddie Mac
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17 California: Retail
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18 California: Retail Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CALos Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA STORESSTORES $853,760$853,760 $715,120$715,120 $542,711$542,711 $569,578$569,578 $566,829$566,829 $477,127$477,127 $583,649$583,649 $649,478$649,478 $753,616$753,616 $783,511$783,511 $606,693$606,693 $756,462$756,462 $629,364$629,364 $467,441$467,441 $446,947$446,947 $715,999$715,999 $659,170$659,170 $699,170$699,170 $601,170$601,170 Los Angeles San Diego
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19 U.S. Commercial Bldgs.-- Hotels
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20 California: Hotel
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21 California: Hotel Los Angeles San Diego
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22 U.S. Commercial Bldgs. -- Offices
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23 U.S. Commercial Bldgs. -- Offices Office Building Factors
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24 California: Office
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25 California: Office Los Angeles San Diego
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26 U.S. Institutional -- Educational Bldgs. 2006 2007 YTD Primary, Jr. Highs +1% -7% High Schools +15% -6% Colleges/Univ. +6% +5% Libraries -1% -7% Laboratories -24% +20% Museums +2% -7% Comm. Colleges +43% -12% Vocational Schools +35% -50%
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27 U.S. Institutional -- Educational Bldgs.
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28 California: Education
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29 California: Education Los Angeles San Diego
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30 U.S. Institutional -- Healthcare Buildings
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31 California: Healthcare
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32 U.S. Institutional Buildings
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33 California: Public ex Schools
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34 U.S. Manufacturing Buildings
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35 California: Manufacturing
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36 Governor’s Strategic Growth Plan First Five Years Transportation$42 Bil Education $24 Bil Flood Control/Water Supply$11 Bil Public Safety/Courts$10.5 Bil Total$$86.5 Bil Bond Measures Passed$43 Bil Requires Passage in the Legislature and Referendums
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37 California Legislation on Off-Road Diesel Emissions Product is NOT Available Reduce Capacity and Increase Unemployment Spike in 2008/Declines in 2009 Federal Legislation/Regulation on Non-Matching Documentation Tied Up in the Courts Availability of Federal Highway Funds
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38 U.S. Public Works -- Highways & Bridges
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39 California: Highways
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40 U.S. Public Works -- Environmental
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41 California: Water Supply
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42 U.S. Total Construction Starts for 2008 Billions of Dollars 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Total Construction593.0668.9682.5626.7614.1 +11%+13%+2%-8% -2% Single Family Housing 282.7315.5272.4204.0197.8 +17%+12%-14%-25% -3% Multifamily Housing 50.468.369.661.4 56.4 +23%+35%+2%-12% -8% Commercial Bldgs.67.272.091.497.3 91.1 +14%+7%+27% +7% -6% Institutional Bldgs.89.1 99.7109.8114.0118.7 -1% +12%+10%+4% +4% Manufacturing Bldgs.8.010.013.318.616.5 +17%+24%+33%+40% -11% Public Works88.295.8112.2117.9121.0 +6%+9%+17%+5% +3%
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43 California
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44 Questions? Cliff Brewis Senior Director Editorial McGraw-Hill Construction Cliff_brewis@mcgraw-hill.com
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