1. Game Trees-Clustering Prof. Sin-Min Lee “ All human beings desire to know” Aristotle, Metaphysics, I.1.

2. Decision Tree A decision tree is a predictive model Each interior node corresponds to a variable An arc to a child represents a possible value of that variable A leaf represents the predicted value of target variable given the values of the variables represented by the path from the root.

3. - Decision tree can be learned by splitting the source set into subsets based on an attribute value test - This process is repeated on each derived subset in a recursive manner - The recursion is completed when splitting is a singular classification which can be applied to each element of the derived subset - It is also for calculating conditional probabilities

4. Decision tree has three other names 1.Classification tree analysis is used when the predicted outcome is the class to which the data belongs. 2.Regression tree analysis is used when the predicted outcome can be considered a real number 3.CART analysis is to refer to both of the above procedures.

6. Advantage of Decision Tree simple to understand and interpret require little data preparation able to handle nominal and categorical data. perform well with large data in a short time the explanation for the condition is easily explained by boolean logic.

26. AprioriTid Algorithm The database is not used at all for counting the support of candidate itemsets after the first pass. 1.The candidate itemsets are generated the same way as in Apriori algorithm. 2.Another set C’ is generated of which each member has the TID of each transaction and the large itemsets present in this transaction. This set is used to count the support of each candidate itemset. The advantage is that the number of entries in C’ may be smaller than the number of transactions in the database, especially in the later passes.

27. Apriori Algorithm Candidate itemsets are generated using only the large itemsets of the previous pass without considering the transactions in the database. 1.The large itemset of the previous pass is joined with itself to generate all itemsets whose size is higher by 1. 2.Each generated itemset, that has a subset which is not large, is deleted. The remaining itemsets are the candidate ones.

28. Example TIDItems 1001 3 4 2002 3 5 3001 2 3 5 4002 5 Database ItemsetSupport {1}2 {2}3 {3}3 {5}3 L1L1 ItemsetSupport {1 3}*2 {1 4}1 {3 4}1 {2 3}*2 {2 5}*3 {3 5}*2 {1 2}1 {1 5}1 C2C2 ItemsetSupport {1 3 4}1 {2 3 5}*2 {1 3 5}1 C3C3

29. Example TIDItems 1001 3 4 2002 3 5 3001 2 3 5 4002 5 Database ItemsetSupport {1}2 {2}3 {3}3 {5}3 L1L1 ItemsetTID {1 3}100 {1 4}100 {3 4}100 {2 3}200 {2 5}200 {3 5}200 {1 2}300 {1 3}300 {1 5}300 {2 3}300 {2 5}300 {3 5}300 {2 5}400 C2C2 ItemsetTID {1 3 4}100 {2 3 5}200 {1 3 5}300 {2 3 5}300 C3C3

30. Example TIDItems 1001 3 4 2002 3 5 3001 2 3 5 4002 5 Database ItemsetSupport {1}2 {2}3 {3}3 {5}3 L1L1 ItemsetSupport {1 2}1 {1 3}*2 {1 5}1 {2 3}*2 {2 5}*3 {3 5}*2 C2C2 ItemsetSupport {2 3 5}*2 C3C3 {1 2 3} {1 3 5} {2 3 5}

31. Example TIDItems 1001 3 4 2002 3 5 3001 2 3 5 4002 5 Database ItemsetSupport {1}2 {2}3 {3}3 {5}3 L1L1 ItemsetSupport {1 2}1 {1 3}*2 {1 5}1 {2 3}*2 {2 5}*3 {3 5}*2 C2C2 ItemsetSupport {2 3 5}*2 C3C3 100{1 3} 200{2 3}, {2 5}, {3 5} 300{1 2}, {1 3}, {1 5}, {2 3}, {2 5}, {3 5} 400{2 5} C’ 2 200{2 3 5} 300{2 3 5} C’ 3

32. No practicable methodology has been demonstrated for reliable prediction of large earthquakes on times scales of decades or less –Some scientists question whether such predictions will be possible even with much improved observations –Pessimism comes from repeated cycles in which public promises that reliable predictions are just around the corner are followed by the equally public failures of specific prediction methodologies. Bad for science!

33. COMPLEX PLATE BOUNDARY ZONE IN SOUTHEAST ASIA Northward motion of India deforms all of the region Many small plates (microplates) and blocks Molnar & Tapponier, 1977

36. Mission district — San Francisco Earthquake, 1906 Short-term prediction (forecast)  Frequency and distribution pattern of foreshocks  Deformation of the ground surface: Tilting, elevation changes  Emission of radon gas  Seismic gap along faults  Abnormal animal activities

38. 强烈地震顷刻间将唐山夷 为一片平地。图为唐山市区 震后废墟

39. Freeway Damage — 1994 CA Earthquake

40. Sand Boils after Loma Prieta Earthquake

41. California Earthquake Probabilities Map

42. Clustering Group data into clusters –Similar to one another within the same cluster –Dissimilar to the objects in other clusters –Unsupervised learning: no predefined classes Cluster 1 Cluster 2 Outliers

44. What is Cluster Analysis? Cluster analysis –Grouping a set of data objects into clusters Clustering is unsupervised classification: no predefined classes Typical applications –to get insight into data –as a preprocessing step

45. What Is A Good Clustering? High intra-class similarity and low inter- class similarity –Depending on the similarity measure The ability to discover some or all of the hidden patterns

46. General Applications of Clustering Pattern Recognition Spatial Data Analysis –create thematic maps in GIS by clustering feature spaces –detect spatial clusters and explain them in spatial data mining Image Processing Economic Science (especially market research) WWW –Document classification –Cluster Weblog data to discover groups of similar access patterns

47. Examples of Clustering Applications Marketing: Help marketers discover distinct groups in their customer bases, and then use this knowledge to develop targeted marketing programs Land use: Identification of areas of similar land use in an earth observation database Insurance: Identifying groups of motor insurance policy holders with a high average claim cost City-planning: Identifying groups of houses according to their house type, value, and geographical location Earth-quake studies: Observed earth quake epicenters should be clustered along continent faults

48. What Is Good Clustering? A good clustering method will produce high quality clusters with –high intra-class similarity –low inter-class similarity The quality of a clustering result depends on both the similarity measure used by the method and its implementation. The quality of a clustering method is also measured by its ability to discover some or all of the hidden patterns.

49. Data Structures in Clustering Data matrix –(two modes) Dissimilarity matrix –(one mode)

50. Measuring Similarity Dissimilarity/Similarity metric: Similarity is expressed in terms of a distance function, which is typically metric:d(i, j) There is a separate “quality” function that measures the “goodness” of a cluster. The definitions of distance functions are usually very different for interval-scaled, boolean, categorical, ordinal and ratio variables. Weights should be associated with different variables based on applications and data semantics. It is hard to define “similar enough” or “good enough” – the answer is typically highly subjective.

51. Notion of a Cluster can be Ambiguous How many clusters? Four ClustersTwo Clusters Six Clusters

52. Hierarchy algorithms Agglomerative: each object is a cluster, merge clusters to form larger ones Divisive: all objects are in a cluster, split it up into smaller clusters

53. Types of Clusters: Well-Separated Well-Separated Clusters: –A cluster is a set of points such that any point in a cluster is closer (or more similar) to every other point in the cluster than to any point not in the cluster. 3 well-separated clusters

54. Types of Clusters: Center-Based Center-based – A cluster is a set of objects such that an object in a cluster is closer (more similar) to the “center” of a cluster, than to the center of any other cluster –The center of a cluster is often a centroid, the average of all the points in the cluster, or a medoid, the most “representative” point of a cluster 4 center-based clusters

55. Types of Clusters: Contiguity-Based Contiguous Cluster (Nearest neighbor or Transitive) –A cluster is a set of points such that a point in a cluster is closer (or more similar) to one or more other points in the cluster than to any point not in the cluster. 8 contiguous clusters

56. Types of Clusters: Density-Based Density-based –A cluster is a dense region of points, which is separated by low- density regions, from other regions of high density. –Used when the clusters are irregular or intertwined, and when noise and outliers are present. 6 density-based clusters

57. Types of Clusters: Conceptual Clusters Shared Property or Conceptual Clusters –Finds clusters that share some common property or represent a particular concept.. 2 Overlapping Circles

58. Hierarchical Clustering Traditional Hierarchical Clustering Non-traditional Hierarchical ClusteringNon-traditional Dendrogram Traditional Dendrogram

59. Hierarchical Clustering Produces a set of nested clusters organized as a hierarchical tree Can be visualized as a dendrogram –A tree like diagram that records the sequences of merges or splits

60. Starting Situation Start with clusters of individual points and a proximity matrix p1 p3 p5 p4 p2 p1p2p3p4p5......... Proximity Matrix

61. Intermediate Situation After some merging steps, we have some clusters C1 C4 C2 C5 C3 C2C1 C3 C5 C4 C2 C3C4C5 Proximity Matrix

62. We want to merge the two closest clusters (C2 and C5) and update the proximity matrix. C1 C4 C2 C5 C3 C2C1 C3 C5 C4 C2 C3C4C5 Proximity Matrix

63. After Merging The question is “How do we update the proximity matrix?” C1 C4 C2 U C5 C3 ? ? ? ? ? C2 U C5 C1 C3 C4 C2 U C5 C3C4 Proximity Matrix

64. How to Define Inter-Cluster Similarity Similarity? Proximity Matrix p1 p3 p5 p4 p2 p1p2p3p4p5......... MIN MAX Group Average Distance Between Centroids Other methods driven by an objective function

65. p1 p3 p5 p4 p2 p1p2p3p4p5......... Proximity Matrix l MAX MIN

66. Group Average  l Distance Between Centroids

67. Cluster Similarity: MIN or Single Link 12345 Similarity of two clusters is based on the two most similar (closest) points in the different clusters Determined by one pair of points, i.e., by one link in the proximity graph.

68. Hierarchical Clustering: MIN Nested ClustersDendrogram 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 2 3 4 5

69. Cluster Similarity: MAX or Complete Linkage Similarity of two clusters is based on the two least similar (most distant) points in the different clusters –Determined by all pairs of points in the two clusters 12345

70. Hierarchical Clustering: MAX Nested ClustersDendrogram 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 2 5 3 4

71. Cluster Similarity: Group Average Proximity of two clusters is the average of pairwise proximity between points in the two clusters. Need to use average connectivity for scalability since total proximity favors large clusters 12345

72. Nested ClustersDendrogram 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 2 5 3 4 Hierarchical Clustering: Group Average

73. Hierarchical Clustering: Time and Space requirements O(N 2 ) space since it uses the proximity matrix. –N is the number of points. O(N 3 ) time in many cases –There are N steps and at each step the size, N 2, proximity matrix must be updated and searched –Complexity can be reduced to O(N 2 log(N) ) time for some approaches

74. Hierarchical Clustering: Problems and Limitations Once a decision is made to combine two clusters, it cannot be undone No objective function is directly minimized Different schemes have problems with one or more of the following: –Sensitivity to noise and outliers –Difficulty handling different sized clusters and convex shapes –Breaking large clusters