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Sunshine Coast Destination Limited March 12 Quarter Report REPORT STATUS : FINAL Issued : 19th April 2012 Pacific Tower 737 Burwood Road Hawthorn Melbourne 3122 Tel : 61 03 98300612 1March 12 Quarterly Report FINAL
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Section 1 : Introduction Introduction The purpose of this report is to provide a relevant, timely and concise report on Tourism trends on the Sunshine Coast for the Industry Operators and other Stakeholders. The scope of the report includes the following :- Section 1: Introduction. Section 2 : The external environment and tourism trends. Section 3 : Sunshine Coast overview. Section 4 : Domestic overnight trends. Section 5 : International trends. Section 6 : Visitor Outlook. Section 7 : Key Point summary. Note : Data used in the charts is trended data unless stated otherwise. Trending refers to a 12 month moving average. 2March 12 Quarterly Report FINAL
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Section 1 : Introduction Data Sources This report uses a number of data sources. Roy Morgan Research Single Source (Dec. 2011). A annual sample of 51,000 Australians Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Data (March 2012). An annual sample of 51,000 Australians. International Visitor Survey (Dec. 2011). An annual sample of 40,000 visitors aged over 15 conducted at departure lounges at airports. Domestic Visitor Survey (Dec 2011). An annual sample of 120,000 Australians aged over the age of 15. Australian Bureau of Statistics - Tourist Accommodation (Sept. 2011). A survey by the ABS of accommodation establishments of 15 or more rooms sourced through AAA tourism Pty Ltd and other sources. Australian Bureau of Statistics – Arrivals / Departures data (Jan 2012). Data obtained from immigration cards. 3March 12 Quarterly Report FINAL
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Australian GDP and Consumer Confidence The Australian economy is growing again and is close to growing at trend rates in Dec. 2011. Consumer (and Business) Confidence is well up from the GFC induced lows of 2008 and consumer confidence is growing again with the cuts in interest rates. Section 2 : External Environment 4March 12 Quarterly Report FINAL
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State Final Demand (% quarterly growth)* WA and Qld are leading thanks to the strength in the Mining Sector and recovery in Qld. after the floods. Vic. is flat, NSW growing, SA is slowing down. Section 2 : External Environment Source : ABS * State Final Demand (SFD) is an important measure of economic activity. It is an estimate of the level of spending in the local economy by the private and public sectors. Spending is reported on the basis of consumption of goods and services, and capital investment. 5March 12 Quarterly Report FINAL
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Inbound and outbound travel (12mma) With the high $A – Australians are jumping on planes for OS holidays although growth has slowed with the economic uncertainty and the increase costs of airfares. Inbound numbers are now static:- New Zealand arrivals (+0.6%), with growth slowing. The German market is declining (-4.6%), also the UK market (-6.0%) and also the USA (-2.7%). Section 2 : External Environment Source : ABS 6March 12 Quarterly Report FINAL
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Total Sunshine Coast Visitor Spending Sunshine Coast Visitors (Day trippers, domestic overnight and inbound), spent just over $2.3B on the Coast. This provides 17% of the gross regional product :- Total spending grew by 5.2% due to a recovery in day trip spending which grew 21.8% and also the overnight market (+2.0%). Share of Queensland spending has softened but is still a healthy 12.3% and is well up from Dec 10 share of 11.5%. Day Trips Overnight (Inbound / Domestic) Total ($)% p.a.($)% p.a.($)% p.a. Dec-08 425,000,000-15.81,996,000,0004.32,421,000,0000.1 Dec-09 383,000,000-9.92,028,000,0001.62,411,000,000-0.4 Dec-10 358,000,000-6.51,830,000,000-9.82,188,000,000-9.2 Dec-11 434,000,00021.21,867,000,0002.02,301,000,0005.2 Share of Spending (%) - RHS Total Visitor Spending ($M) - LHS Section 3 : Sunshine Coast Overview Source :NVS / IVS 7March 12 Quarterly Report FINAL
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Total Sunshine Coast Visitors Total visitation to the Sunshine Coast (Day trippers, Domestic overnight and International overnight) is now 7.9M visits in a year. Visitation overall up overall (+6.7%), thanks to an increase in the domestic overnight and day trip markets. Day trippers are the largest segment in terms of people (4.9M visitors in 2011), but they spend much less per trip than overnight visitors. Total Visitors International Overnight Domestic OvernightDay Trips Visitors% p.a. % of total Visitors% p.a. % of total Visitors% p.a. % of total Visitors% p.a. % of total Dec -08 7,817,000-11.4 100 279,000-3.63.62,800,000-7.435.84,738,000-14.060.6 Dec-09 7,97,0002.0 100 277,000-0.73.52,680,000-4.333.65,013,0005.862.9 Dec-10 7,402,000-7.1 100 283,0002.43.82,604,000-2.835.24,515,000-9.961.0 Dec-11 7,896,0006.7 100 236,000-16.53.02,727,0004.734.54,933,0009.362.5 Total Visitors Source :NVS / IVS Section 3 : Sunshine Coast Overview 8March 12 Quarterly Report FINAL
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Sunshine Coast Visitors Total Inbound has trended up over the long term but has slowed with the slowdown caused by more global financial turmoil. The domestic overnight visitors are showing continued signs of improvement. Day trippers are the most numerous by far and numbers are rising again. Source :NVS / IVS Section 3 : Sunshine Coast Overview 9March 12 Quarterly Report FINAL
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Visitor Trends –Summary Table (excludes Day Trippers) The Sunshine Coast has been impacted by the global uncertainty, but with spending up 2.0% the region is holding up well. Business has recovered and domestic business is now larger than International visitors and domestic visiting friends and relatives is growing as well. Year Ended Dec 2011 VISITORSHOLIDAYVFRBUSINESS EXPENDITURE ($) Domestic Overnight 2,727,0001,508,000872,000254,0001,653,000,000 Annual Change % 4.7-2.16.657.84.0 International Overnight 236,414171,61655,0099,739214,000,000 Annual Change % -16.5-23.76.362.1-10.8 TOTAL 2,963,414 1,679,616927,000263,739 1,867,000,000 Annual Change % 2.6-4.96.657.9 2.0 Section 3 : Sunshine Coast Overview 10March 12 Quarterly Report FINAL
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Sunshine Coast – Accommodation Occupancy Rates Note : Data is from the ABS and is a sample of accommodation establishments with 15 or more rooms. Sunshine Coast Occupancy levels rose in Dec 11 compared with Dec 10). Gold Coast has softened. TNQ doing a little better and so to is the Whitsundays. Room Occupancy Rates (%) 15 rooms or more Sunshine Coast Gold Coast WhitsundaysTNQQld. Dec-08 61.868.959.457.965.5 Dec-09 64.071.357.3n.a.63.9 Dec-10 60.6 72.157.555.764.8 Dec 11 61.470.958.558.066.9 Source : ABS (establishments with 15 or more rooms) Section 3 : Sunshine Coast Overview 11March 12 Quarterly Report FINAL
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The Australian and Qld. Domestic Market A soft performance, against some strong headwinds, characterises the Aus. Domestic holiday market (year to Dec 2011) :- Although total visitors increased by 4%, with the biggest increase in VFR up 6% and business up 6%, while holiday visitors were flat. Overall spending increased only 2% as people continued to tighten their belts in efforts to increase their household savings. Holiday spending was down 4% in the year to Dec 11. Queensland was flat compared with Australia. The overall holiday market was flat, with Business falling 5% and VFR rising 6%. Overall spending was flat, with the fall in holiday spending continuing -3%. This reflect the continued belt tightening by consumers in response to the global economic concerns. Section 4 : Domestic Overnight Market 12March 12 Quarterly Report FINAL
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Air Capacity (As at Jan 12) Sunshine Coast airport is experiencing a softening in seat numbers. Expected seats in April 2012 is well down from March 2011. WEEKLY DOMESTIC SEATS Number March 2011 Number June 2011 Number Sept 2011 Number Jan. 2011 April 2012 Brisbane 130,857129,497130,783132,790135,266 Gold Coast 54,23651,09051,06062,47157,789 Cairns 38,87834,10937,86736,60540,559 Townsville 16,69310,48915,75714,79915,033 Mackay 12,50810,61112,61012,23212,636 Sunshine Coast 12,19311,2059.08911,5219,850 Section 4 : Domestic Overnight Market 13March 12 Quarterly Report FINAL
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Sunshine Coast – Domestic Visitor Spending Share of Spending (%) - RHS Visitor Spending ($M) - LHS Domestic Overnight SC Spending $ % Change p.a. Market Share of Qld. (%) Dec-08 1,811,000,0006.214.6 Dec-09 1,806,000,000-0.315.5 Dec-10 1,590,000,000-12.013.9 Dec-11 1,653,000,0004.014.4 Spending by domestic overnight visitors to the Sunshine Coast increased by +4.0%. Overnight visitors are now spending an impressive $1,653M on the Coast. Sunshine Coast market share of spending increased from Dec 10 by 0.5%. Source :NVS Section 4 : Domestic Overnight Market 14March 12 Quarterly Report FINAL
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Sunshine Coast – Total Visitors and Visitor Nights Domestic Visitor Nights (‘000) - LHS Domestic Overnight Visitors (‘000) - RHS Domestic Overnight SC Visitors % Change p.a. Domestic Nights % Change p.a. Dec-073,025,00013.411,919,00015.2 Dec-082,800,000-7.412,216,0002.5 Dec-092,680,000-4.311,593,000-5.1 Dec-102,604,000-2.810,186,000-12.1 Dec-112,727,0004.710,459,0002.7 Visitor numbers are up compared to last year (+4.7%) and nights are up as well (+2.7%). Looking at the long term trends, visitor numbers are about the same as they were 10 years ago and visitor nights are slightly lower. Source :NVS Section 4 : Domestic Overnight Market 15March 12 Quarterly Report FINAL
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Sunshine Coast – Interstate and Intrastate INTER- state Visitors % Change p.a. INTER- state Nights % Change p.a. INTRA- state Visitors % Change p.a. INTRA- state Nights % Change p.a. Dec- 07 805,0000.15,404,0009.12,220,00019.16,515,00020.8 Dec- 08 759,000-5.76,197,00014.72,041,000-8.16,019,000-7.6 Dec- 09 719,000-5.35,069,000-18.21,961,000-3.96,524,0008.4 Dec-10 718,000-0.14,384,000-13.51,886,000-3.85,802,000-11.1 Dec-11 719,0000.14,652,0006.12,008,0006.55,807,0000.1 Main reason for the lift in spending is the increase in Interstate Visitor Nights. Source : NVS Section 4 : Domestic Overnight Market 16March 12 Quarterly Report FINAL
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SC – Domestic Market Share (%) Share of Visitor Nights (%) Share of Visitors (%) SC Share of QLD Visitors (%) SC Share of QLD nights (%) Gold Coast Share of QLD Visitors (%) Whitsun days Share of QLD Visitors (%) Tropical North Qld. Share of QLD Visitors (%) Dec- 07 16.815.520.62.98.1 Dec- 08 16.816.920.13.39.0 Dec- 09 17.016.620.42.69.7 Dec-10 15.714.320.53.07.9 Dec-11 16.415.219.33.18.6 Both the Sunshine Coast’s share of nights and visitors improved in the year ended Dec 11 compared with Dec. 10. Share of visitors peaked in 2005 when the domestic economy was particularly strong, then held quite well during the GFC. In 2010 shares softened but now market shares are improving. Source :NVS Section 4 : Domestic Overnight Market 17March 12 Quarterly Report FINAL
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SC – Average Length of Stay (Nights) SC Average Length of Stay (nights) Gold Coast Average Length of Stay (nights) Whitsun days Average Length of Stay (nights) Tropical North Qld. Average Length of Stay (nights) Qld Average Length of Stay (nights) Dec- 07 3.94.44.95.64.3 Dec- 08 4.4 4.94.3 Dec- 09 4.34.2 5.44.4 Dec-10 3.94.14.36.44.3 Dec-11 3.84.04.85.24.1 Sunshine Coast visitors average length of stay steadied in the Dec 11 quarter. The average length of stay is remarkably stable, the exception being in 2003 when the Queensland economy really boomed and consumers enjoyed longer holidays. Average length of stay is also lower than the overall Queensland average of 4.1 nights. Sunshine Coast Queensland Source :NVS Section 4 : Domestic Overnight Market 18March 12 Quarterly Report FINAL
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Sunshine Coast – Source Markets of Visitors NSW QLD NSWVic Rest of Australia Visitors% p.a.Visitors% p.a.Visitors% p.a.Visitors% p.a. Dec- 07 2,220,00019.1415,000-1.4263,000-2.6127,00012.4 Dec- 08 2,041,000-8.1408,000-1.7239,000-9.1112,000-11.8 Dec- 09 1,961,000-3.9374,000-8.3242,0001.3103,000-8.0 Dec-10 1,886,000-3.8363,000-2.9230,000-5.0125,00021.4 Dec-11 2,008,0006.5345,000-5.0256,00011.3118,000-5.6 VIC. Rest of Aus. The Queensland market is showing signs of recovery after the GFC and the floods :- Queenslanders make up the biggest component of the domestic overnight market. The NSW market is soft, while Vic. is recovering. Rest of Aus. is trending up. Source :NVS Section 4 : Domestic Overnight Market 19March 12 Quarterly Report FINAL
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Sunshine Coast – Source Markets % of total visitors NSW QLD NSWVic Rest of Australia % Total% p.a.% Total Dec- 07 73.413.78.74.2 Dec- 08 72.914.68.54.0 Dec- 09 73.214.09.03.8 Dec-10 72.413.98.84.8 Dec-11 73.612.79.44.3 VIC. Rest of Aus. Of all the domestic overnight visitors to the Sunshine Coast, Queenslanders are by far the most important. They comprise 73.6 % of visitors currently and this level has been fairly stable over 10 years. Source :NVS Section 4 : Domestic Overnight Market 20March 12 Quarterly Report FINAL
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Sunshine Coast – Brisbane and Regional Qld. visitors Brisbane Brisbane (43.8% of total) Regional Qld. (29.8% of total) Visitors% ChangeVisitors% Change Dec- 07 1,418,00022.9803,00013.1 Dec- 08 1,292,000-8.9748,000-6.8 Dec- 09 1,205,000-6.7756,0001.1 Dec-10 1,208,0000.2678,000-10.3 Dec-11 1,195,000-1.1813,00019.9 Regional Qld. The Brisbane market is the most important, providing 43.8% of all domestic overnight visitors. This market is showing some signs of stability. The Queensland regional market is also significant, and is now close to the 2005 peak. Source :NVS Section 4 : Domestic Overnight Market 21March 12 Quarterly Report FINAL
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Sunshine Coast – Visitor Nights from origin markets QldBrisbaneRegional QldNSWVic Rest of Australia Total Sunshine Coast Visitor Nights Visitor Nights Dec- 07 6,515,0003,788,0002,727,0002,329,0002,233,000842,00011,919,000 Dec- 08 6,019,0003,718,0002,300,0002,239,0003,143,000815,00012,216,000 Dec- 09 6,524,0004,132,0002,392,0001,880,0002,368,000821,00011,593,000 Dec-10 5,802,0003,432,0002,370,0001,882,0001,533,000969,00010,186,000 Dec-11 5,807,0003,499,0002,307,0001,911,0001,752,000989,00010,459,000 The Brisbane market is the most important market overall in terms of visitor nights to the Coast as well. Visitor nights are now recovering. Nights from the Victorian market had really softened but they are starting to improve again. Source :NVS Section 4 : Domestic Overnight Market 22March 12 Quarterly Report FINAL
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Sunshine Coast – Source Markets Share of Qld. NSW QLD NSWVic Rest of Australia (%) Dec- 07 18.312.416.413.7 Dec- 08 18.213.016.412.8 Dec- 09 18.413.217.212.6 Dec-10 16.911.715.615.0 Dec-11 17.811.617.613.3 VIC. Rest of Aus. This measures the Sunshine Coast’s market share - for example the Sunshine Coast’s share of the Victorians that travel to Queensland. The Sunshine Coast has its highest market share amongst Queenslanders and this share has improved in Dec. 11 The Sunshine Coast also wins a strong share amongst the Victorians. The warmer weather is a particularly strong appeal to this group. Market share is gradually picking up. Share of the rest of Australia has softened and NSW share is also steady. Source :NVS Section 4 : Domestic Overnight Market 23March 12 Quarterly Report FINAL
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Sunshine Coast - Purpose of Visit Visiting Friends and Relatives Holiday/Leisure (55% of total ) Friends and Relatives (32% of total) Business (9.3% of total ) Education (2.7% of total) Visitors% p.a.Visitors% p.a.Visitors% p.a.Visitors% p.a. Dec- 07 1,747,0006.31,005,00019.2182,00014.5 Dec- 08 1,754,0000.4785,000-21.9211,00015.9 Dec- 09 1,712,000-2.4751,000-4.3153,000-27.5 Dec-10 1,541,000-10.0818,0008.9161,0005.2 Dec-11 1,508,000-2.1872,0006.6254,00057.8 16,000*14* Business Other The holiday / leisure market is the most important market for the Sunshine Coast, by far, accounting for 55% of overnight domestic visitors :- As the local population increases, more VFR visitors are coming to the coast and their proportion of total visitors is increasing, now they are 32% of all domestic visitors, however, they are lower spenders. Business visitors are at near record levels, thanks to the growth in the resources sector and a recovery in business travel after the GFC. Source : NVS and * TQ estimate Dec 10 Source :NVS Section 4 : Domestic Overnight Market 24March 12 Quarterly Report FINAL
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Sunshine Coast - Sub regional visitor numbers The Southern Sub-region has been trending up slowly over the last 10 years and experienced a very good year to Dec. 2011. The Hinterland has been increasing visitors as the cooler climate and Hinterland offer have become more appealing. The Central Sub-region has been trending down for years but in the year to Dec. 11 the region is showing an improvement. The Northern Sub-region has been trending up slowly over the years and has weathered the GFC. In fact the Northern Sub-region is close to record levels in the year ended Dec.11. The Cooloola sub-region also had a very good year. SouthernHinterlandCentralNorthernCooloola Visitors% p.a.Visitors% p.a.Visitors% p.a.Visitors% p.a.Visitors% p.a. Dec- 07 486,00037.3259,00019.4888,00040.5667,0008.8332,00014.5 Dec- 08 503,0003.5242,000-6.6870,000-2.0701,0005.1280,000-15.7 Dec- 09 452,000-10.1239,000-1.2584,000-32.9882,00025.8301,0007.5 Dec-10 461,0002.0349,00046.0523,000-10.4919,0004.2287,000-4.7 Dec-11 521,00013.0366,0004.9535,0002.3912,000-0.8353,00023.0 Source :NVS Section 4 : Domestic Overnight Market 25March 12 Quarterly Report FINAL
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Sunshine Coast - Sub regional visitor numbers This charts shows the long term trends in Sub regional numbers from the previous page. Northern Central Southern Hinterland Cooloola Section 4 : Domestic Overnight Market 26March 12 Quarterly Report FINAL Source : NVS
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Sunshine Coast - Sub regional visitor numbers (Qld) The Northern Sub-region has been performing well from the Qld. market with visitor numbers increasing. Hinterland sub region as well has been trending up. The Central Sub-region and Cooloola Sub-region are picking in up a little as well. The Central region was the most impacted by the softening Sunshine Coast preference, weaker Qld. economy and the GFC. Southern Sub-region is steady. SouthernHinterlandCentralNorthernCooloola Visitors Dec- 07 367,000207,000674,000400,000271,000 Dec- 08 408,000200,000630,000423,000247,000 Dec- 09 365,000193,000418,000559,000264,000 Dec-10 351,000291,000334,000638,000237,000 Dec-11 393,000277,000365,000624,000305,000 Source :NVS Northern Central Southern Hinterland Cooloola Section 4 : Domestic Overnight Market 27March 12 Quarterly Report FINAL
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Sunshine Coast - Sub regional visitor numbers (NSW) The Northern Sub region had been performing well from the NSW market since 2005 with visitor numbers trending up, but numbers are softening. Hinterland Sub-region continues to grow. The Southern Sub-region and Cooloola Sub-region are now up from low points. The real loss again has been with the Central Sub-region, since 2004, but numbers continue to show signs of stabilising. SouthernHinterlandCentralNorthernCooloola Visitors Dec- 07 63,00031,000112,000113,00038,000 Dec- 08 59,00026,000107,000157,00024,000 Dec- 09 39,00031,00076,000179,00015,000 Dec-10 60,00042,00078,000141,00024,000 Dec-11 53,00054,00079,000122,00028,000 Source :NVS Northern Central SouthernHinterland Cooloola Section 4 : Domestic Overnight Market 28March 12 Quarterly Report FINAL
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Sunshine Coast - Sub regional visitor numbers (Vic) The Southern Sub-region visitor numbers are trending up again. The Northern Sub-region is better. The Central area is steady. For the Hinterland and Cooloola this is a very small market. SouthernHinterlandCentralNorthernCooloola Visitors Dec- 07 36,00015,00057,000118,00017,000 Dec- 08 25,0006,00079,00093,0007,000 Dec- 09 27,0009,00067,000109,00016,000 Dec-10 31,0008,00068,00097,00014,000 Dec-11 39,00015,00070,000126,00017,000 Source :NVS Northern Central Southern Hinterland Cooloola Section 4 : Domestic Overnight Market 29March 12 Quarterly Report FINAL
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Sunshine Coast - Sub regional visitor numbers (rest of Aus) The Northern Sub-region has improved after the GFC. The Southern Sub-region visitors are trending up and visitor numbers from the rest of Australia are at near record numbers. The Central Sub-region is still struggling. Numbers are increasing at the Hinterland, while for Cooloola this is a very small market. SouthernHinterlandCentralNorthernCooloola Visitors Dec- 07 20,0006,00044,00036,0006,000 Dec- 08 11,00010,00054,00028,0002,000 Dec- 09 20,0007,00023,00035,0006,000 Dec-10 18,0009,00043,000 12,000 Dec-11 36,00020,000 40,0003,000 Source :NVS Northern Central Southern Hinterland Cooloola Section 4 : Domestic Overnight Market 30March 12 Quarterly Report FINAL
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Sunshine Coast Preference Sunshine CoastGold CoastWhitsundays Tropical North Qld. P reference Share (%)* Dec- 07 2,350,00030.843.523.525.4 Dec- 08 2,411,00031.244.023.224.9 Dec- 09 2,368,00030.343.924.123.9 Dec-10 2,270,00029.043.721.625.2 Dec-11 2,166,00027.841.821.425.1 Preference measures where Australian consumers would like to have holiday of at least one night or more over the next 2 years. It is an important measure of the desirability of a destination and is collected via a survey conducted by Roy Morgan Research Pty Ltd. The Sunshine Coast has 2.166million people who would like to have a holiday on the Coast and this gives the Coast a 27.8% share, which is higher than the Whitsundays and Tropical North Qld. Preference has been falling for years but has it turned the corner ? The Gold Coast has the highest Preference and this Preference has remained fairly stable, although share has dropped in the last year. Share of Qld. Preference Source : Roy Morgan Holiday Tracking Study Section 4 : Domestic Overnight Market 31March 12 Quarterly Report FINAL
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Sunshine Coast Preference SydneyMelbourneBrisbane Preference Dec- 07 401,000376,000578,000 Dec- 08 360,000388,000552,000 Dec- 09 335,000383,000608,000 Dec-10 308,000327,000615,000 Dec-11 319,000311,000600,000 The Preference decline has been most significant from the Sydney market as this market has also been effected by a relatively weak economy since 2001. Preference has improved recently as the economy has started to pick-up. Brisbane has been holding up and even got a lift from the recent advertising. Melbourne has weakened under the weight of the bad weather story in the lead up to Christmas. There are indications that Preference is picking up again. Source : Roy Morgan Holiday Tracking Study Section 4 : Domestic Overnight Market 32March 12 Quarterly Report FINAL
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Sunshine Coast Preference – HH Income Segments $35K or less $35K to $80K $80K to $110K $110K Preference Dec- 07 296,000674,000390,000437,000 Dec- 08 300,000650,000381,000598,000 Dec- 09 319,000596,000382,000555,000 Dec-10 287,000529,000324,000598,000 Dec-11 271,000542,000369,000582,000 Preference levels for the Sunshine Coast vary between the income groups. Preference continues to trend up amongst the highest income groups. These consumers, when they visit, are also the biggest spenders so are very desirable. Mid Income segments are improving as well. Section 4 : Domestic Overnight Market 33March 12 Quarterly Report FINAL Source : Roy Morgan Holiday Tracking Study
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34March 12 Quarterly Report FINAL Sunshine Coast – Positioning Profile Section 4 : Domestic Overnight Market This charts the alignment of a destination (in this case the Sunshine Coast) with Lifestyle Segments. For example, while Affluent Families are 8% of the population, they account for 12% of Sunshine Coast Preference – that is this segment has a higher propensity to want to holiday on the Sunshine Coast. This Positioning Maps shows the Sunshine Coast is more aligned with the family and more affluent segments. These are the core segments. Affluent Families (8%) Affluent Empty Nesters (6%) Golden Age Lifestylers (1%) Average Age (years) Source : Roy Morgan Single Source Dec 11 (3 year average) 1020403050607080 Personal Income ($’000) 0 60 20 10 50 70 40 30 EMDA Consumer Positioning Map EMDA Lifestyle Segmentation Base :Australia TM Sunshine Coast Preferrers Students (7%) Affluent Singles (7%) Spend it All Singles (10%) Battler Families (12%) Surviving Families (8%) Struggling Retirees (5%) Mid Income Empty Nesters (10% ) Surviving Empty Nesters (10%) Grey Survivors (11%) 5% Affluent Couples (3%) Saving Couples (2%) 9% 3% 12% 8% 1% 15% 12% 5%3% 6% 7% 9% 6% C EMDA 2003
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Sunshine Coast Preference – Core Segments Affluent Families Battler Families Affluent Empty Nesters Preference Dec- 07 274,000375,000201,000 Dec- 08 313,000359,000201,000 Dec- 09 254,000333,000188,000 Dec-10 277,000334,000191,000 Dec-11 278,000327,000168,000 Preference has been trending down amongst the Affluent Families and Battler Families, but there are signs now that Preference is starting to stabilise. Preference amongst the Affluent Empty Nesters has remained solid even during the GFC, but has softened a little as the lure of that overseas trip increases. Source : Roy Morgan Holiday Tracking Study Section 4 : Domestic Overnight Market 35March 12 Quarterly Report FINAL Source : Roy Morgan Holiday Tracking Study
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Aus. and Qld- International Market Trends The International holiday market to Australia fell (year to Dec. 11) :- This market is starting to recover after the GFC but renewed uncertainty is impacting and also the high $A, holiday visitor numbers fell 4%. The New Zealand holiday market is weaker (down 8%). The European holiday market is also down 9%. In line with the rest of Australia, international visitors to Qld. declined with numbers down 7%:- The poor weather and renewed global uncertainty dragged on the Qld. holiday market and visitation fell by -13%. The NZ holiday market was especially weak is down 13%. Europe as well is well down in the holiday market (-18%). Total spending by International visitors is also down (-2%). Section 5: International Overnight Market 36March 12 Quarterly Report FINAL
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Sunshine Coast – Spending Share of Qld. Spending (%) - RHS Visitor Spending ($M) - LHS Inter- national Overnight SC Spending $* % Change p.a. (Spending) Market Share of Qld. spending (%) Dec- 08 185,000,000-11.14.6 Dec- 09 222,000,00020.05.7 Dec-10 240,000,0008.16.3 Dec-11 214,000,000-10.85.8 The International market continues to be a solid market for the Sunshine Coast, with spending and share of spending trending up since 2008. The last six months have seen a softening as the European debt crisis has impacted on discretionary holiday travel (the core International market for the Sunshine Coast):- Spending by visitors though is at near record levels. This continues to represent opportunities for the Sunshine Coast as the world economy recovers. Section 5: International Overnight Market Source : IVS, *note includes package expenditure 37March 12 Quarterly Report FINAL
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Regions – Inbound visitors Share of Spending (%) - RHS Visitor Spending ($M) - LHS The Sunshine Coast has been gaining steadily in this market for years on a long term trends basis, although the last six months have been weaker :- After the impact of the floods, the world economy looked shaky thanks to global concerns about European and US debt levels and this is dragging down visitor numbers. All holiday destinations shown have been impacted, with TNQ well down. SUNSHINE COAST GOLD COAST WHIT- SUNDAYS TROPICAL NORTH QLD Visitors% p.a.Visitors% p.a.Visitors% p.a.Visitors % p.a. Dec- 07 288,8747.6858,4433.5223,9894.9843,138-1.9 Dec- 08 278,505-3.6795,134-7.4220,177-1.7756,718-10.2 Dec- 09 276,505-0.7813,3262.3222,9611.3650,880-14.0 Dec-10 283,1812.4817,2520.5203,706-8.6685,9065.4 Dec-11 236,414-16.5718,253-12.1168,884-17.1587,324-14.4 Gold Coast TNQ Sunshine Coast Whitsundays Source : IVS Section 5: International Overnight Market 38March 12 Quarterly Report FINAL
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Regions – Inbound Visitor Nights Share of Spending (%) - RHS Visitor Spending ($M) - LHS The Sunshine Coast has been gaining inbound visitor nights steadily over the last 10 years, although numbers fell in the year to Dec. 11 :- The Gold Coast has the highest level and this has been flat over the last three years. Visitor nights have dropped in TNQ and the Whitsundays are soft. SUNSHINE COAST GOLD COAST WHIT- SUNDAYS TROPICAL NORTH QLD Visitor Nights Dec- 07 2,508,8767,458,7831,292,6696,856,476 Dec- 08 2,333,2798,318,4451,249,7016,403,218 Dec- 09 2,549,9787,714,5111,307,6326,263,829 Dec-10 2,618,1118,075,6621,167,2786,136,679 Dec-11 2,495,9018,114,7781,011,1045,122,614 Gold Coast TNQ Sunshine Coast Whitsundays Source : IVS Section 5: International Overnight Market 39March 12 Quarterly Report FINAL
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Regions – Average Length of Stay Share of Spending (%) - RHS Visitor Spending ($M) - LHS The Sunshine Coast average length of stay is on a par with the Gold Coast and is now better than Tropical North Queensland :- Across these three regions average length of stay has been trending up, although recently the average length of stay in TNQ has softened. Average length of stay is steady on the Whitsundays. SUNSHINE COAST GOLD COAST WHIT- SUNDAYS TROPICAL NORTH QLD Days Dec- 07 8.7 5.88.116.6 Dec- 08 8.410.55.78.519.8 Dec- 09 9.29.55.99.619.9 Dec-10 9.29.95.78.919.4 Dec-11 10.611.36.08.721.2 Gold Coast TNQ Sunshine Coast Whitsundays Source : IVS Section 5: International Overnight Market 40March 12 Quarterly Report FINAL
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Sunshine Coast – Inbound visitors by market Share of Spending (%) - RHS Visitor Spending ($M) - LHS The Sunshine Coast’s No. 1 inbound market is New Zealand (31.3% of inbound) :- The New Zealand market has been weak since the GFC but in the Dec. 11 year improved a little. Other markets are softening due to the global debt concerns. Asia a little better. NZUKGermany Other Europe Asia Visitors % of total Visitors % of total Visitors % of total Visitors % of total Visitors % of total Dec- 07 95,96033.258,80920.420,5587.153,88118.718,7156.5 Dec- 08 79,98828.761,37622.025,0559.053,23819.119,9157.2 Dec- 09 78,91028.562,20122.522,6438.252,73919.119,5357.1 Dec-10 84,55729.964,98622.925,0738.952,78918.616,4795.8 Dec-11 74,07231.342,71918.121,6869.248,30820.417,1057.2 UK Other Europe New Zealand GermanyAsia Source : IVS Section 5: International Overnight Market 41March 12 Quarterly Report FINAL
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Sunshine Coast – Inbound visitors by ALOS Share of Spending (%) - RHS Visitor Spending ($M) - LHS Asian visitors have the highest average length of stay and its growing again. NZ, Germany, UK and other Europe are all fairly similar. NZUKGermany Other Europe Asia Nights Dec- 07 8.47.69.37.518.8 Dec- 08 8.05.97.94.924.3 Dec- 09 8.48.59.88.413.9 Dec-10 8.69.07.5 18.5 Dec-11 9.07.58.89.528.9 UK Other Europe New Zealand Germany Asia Source : IVS Section 5: International Overnight Market 42March 12 Quarterly Report FINAL
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New Zealand Inbound visitors Share of Spending (%) - RHS Visitor Spending ($M) - LHS This is the most important inbound market for the Sunshine Coast :- The impact of the GFC and recession in New Zealand is apparent, with NZ numbers softening for the Sunshine Coast since 2007. Since 2008 numbers have been softening again due to the global uncertainty, the high Australian dollar and the major Christchurch earthquake. The Gold Coast is losing visitors from this market as well as the Whitsundays. TNQ recovering slightly. SUNSHINE COAST GOLD COAST WHIT- SUNDAYS TROPICAL NORTH QLD Visitors Dec- 07 95,960221,04010,51239,666 Dec- 08 79,988211,20010,36842,575 Dec- 09 78,910203,8347,93233,925 Dec-10 84,557194,8778,48532,949 Dec-11 74,072173,5555,45641,443 Gold Coast TNQ Sunshine Coast Whitsundays Source : IVS Section 5: International Overnight Market 43March 12 Quarterly Report FINAL
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UK Inbound visitors Share of Spending (%) - RHS Visitor Spending ($M) - LHS Even on the Sunshine Coast visitor numbers have softened from this market. A decline in the youth market, the high Aussie $, a weak source economy and the flooding in Qld. have all contributed :- Tropical North Queensland has been losing in this segment since 2006 and the recent cyclone and GFC have not helped this situation and now the global uncertainty is impacting. Now the Gold Coast and the Whitsundays are also softening. SUNSHINE COAST GOLD COAST WHIT- SUNDAYS TROPICAL NORTH QLD Visitors Dec- 07 58,80960,02861,269145,258 Dec- 08 61,37672,24063,578130,975 Dec- 09 62,20178,42167,388121,111 Dec-10 64,98668,48956,558105,324 Dec-11 42,71961,11144,29577,615 Gold Coast TNQ Sunshine CoastWhitsundays Source : IVS Section 5: International Overnight Market 44March 12 Quarterly Report FINAL
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German Inbound visitors Share of Spending (%) - RHS Visitor Spending ($M) - LHS The German market is softening slightly, thanks to the high Aussie $, the concern over European debt levels and flooding in Qld. these have all contributed. Overall the Sunshine Coast continues to grow market share. TNQ and Whitsundays are softening. Gold Coast recovering a little. SUNSHINE COAST GOLD COAST WHIT- SUNDAYS TROPICAL NORTH QLD Visitors Dec- 07 20,55817,08327,80347,270 Dec- 08 25,05518,92330,20250,151 Dec- 09 22,64317,72628,63448,098 Dec-10 25,07316,36329,78351,696 Dec-11 21,68618,16123,14941,053 Gold Coast TNQ Sunshine Coast Whitsundays Source : IVS Section 5: International Overnight Market 45March 12 Quarterly Report FINAL
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Other Europe Inbound visitors Share of Spending (%) - RHS Visitor Spending ($M) - LHS The Sunshine Coast has a fairly stable share of this market :- Tropical North Queensland has the highest share, here the warmer climate, the reef, islands and rainforests have a strong appeal, but numbers have been falling thanks to the poor weather and the global uncertainty. Numbers have also been softening on the Whitsundays and Gold Coast. SUNSHINE COAST GOLD COAST WHIT- SUNDAYS TROPICAL NORTH QLD Visitors Dec- 07 53,88062,18067,827130,976 Dec- 08 53,23956,78866,343136,581 Dec- 09 52,74064,02467,589128,608 Dec-10 52,78761,25063,233127,817 Dec-11 48,30952,84155,419100,824 Gold Coast TNQ Sunshine Coast Whitsundays Source : IVS Section 5: International Overnight Market 46March 12 Quarterly Report FINAL
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Asia Inbound visitors Share of Spending (%) - RHS Visitor Spending ($M) - LHS The Sunshine Coast wins a small number of Asian visitors as does the Whitsundays :- The Gold Coast and Tropical North Queensland have a far higher number of Asian visitors, although numbers for the Gold Coast have been trending down. Packaging has assisted the development of this market as well as catering to their needs. Gold Coast numbers have nearly halved though. This market has also been softening for TNQ as well since 2003. SUNSHINE COAST GOLD COAST WHIT- SUNDAYS TROPICAL NORTH QLD Visitors Dec- 07 18,716416,58915,063311,000 Dec- 08 19,915357,96612,992241,597 Dec- 09 19,533366,65215,556178,149 Dec-10 16,478393,07115,435230,597 Dec-11 17,105339,18914,669202,720 Gold Coast TNQ Sunshine Coast Whitsundays Source : IVS Section 5: International Overnight Market 47March 12 Quarterly Report FINAL
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Sunshine Coast - Sub regional International markets The Southern Sub-region has been softening in the last three years. The Hinterland has been increasing visitors over the last 10 years. The Central Sub-region has been trending down since 2008. The Northern Sub-region has been trending up, although the renewed global uncertainty has softened visitor numbers recently. This is also the case with Cooloola. NorthernCooloola Visitors % p.a. Visitors % p.a. 129,953-3.447,21538.5 130,9490.849,6085.1 146,62812.050,9312.7 148,5281.359,73017.3 124,966-15.943,142-27.8 Source : IVS SouthernHinterlandCentral Visitors% p.a.Visitors% p.a.Visitors% p.a. Dec- 07 38,04429.116,26114.685,3499.4 Dec- 08 31,849-16.320,33325.083,042-2.7 Dec- 09 33,3794.823,29814.660,080-27.7 Dec-10 28,147-15.724,3604.659,207-1.5 Dec-11 24,783-12.021,649-11.151,234-13.5 Northern Central Southern Cooloola Hinterland Section 5: International Overnight Market 48March 12 Quarterly Report FINAL
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Sunshine Coast - Sub regional visitor numbers (NZ) The Northern Sub-region steadied a little. The Southern Sub-region also improved slightly from Sep.11 The real loss has been with the Central Sub-region. This has suffered the most from the weaker NZ economy and the high Australian dollar, although numbers improved slightly from Sep.11 to Dec.11. SouthernHinterlandCentralNorthernCooloola Visitors Dec- 07 18,810 n.a. 44,31031,264 n.a. Dec- 08 15,956 n.a. 41,19324,646 n.a. Dec- 09 15,196 n.a. 32,85030,078 n.a. Dec-10 13,833 n.a. 33,28432,959 n.a. Dec-11 12,452 n.a. 27,55028,230 n.a. Source :IVS n.a. Sample too small to document Northern Central Southern Section 5: International Overnight Market 49March 12 Quarterly Report FINAL
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Sunshine Coast - Sub regional visitor numbers (UK) Visitor numbers have fallen for the Central and Southern Sub-regions. Cooloola is also softening after a very strong 2010. SouthernHinterlandCentralNorthernCooloola Visitors Dec- 07 n.a. 14,12132,01713,455 Dec- 08 n.a. 14,43236,09214,801 Dec- 09 n.a. 8,87637,16118,454 Dec-10 n.a. 9,63439,56721,544 Dec-11 n.a. 8,28825,93612,693 Source :IVS Northern Central Cooloola Section 5: International Overnight Market 50March 12 Quarterly Report FINAL
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Sunshine Coast - Sub regional visitor numbers (Germany) The Northern Sub-region is steady. Cooloola is also trending up over the 10 years as the appeal of Fraser Island grows. SouthernHinterlandCentralNorthernCooloola Visitors Dec- 07 n.a. 12,7866,216 Dec- 08 n.a. 13,11410,603 Dec- 09 n.a. 15,0616,548 Dec-10 n.a. 14,6469,675 Dec-11 n.a. 14,0597,123 Source :IVS Northern Cooloola Section 5: International Overnight Market 51March 12 Quarterly Report FINAL
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Sunshine Coast - Sub regional visitor numbers (Other Europe) The Northern Sub-region was growing strongly, with visitors from other parts of Europe are at near record levels, but renewed economic woes in Europe has dampened visitor numbers. Cooloola is also soft for the same reason. Asian sample is too small to show sub-regional results. SouthernHinterlandCentralNorthernCooloola Visitors Dec- 07 n.a. 30,40413,753 Dec- 08 n.a. 33,20112,647 Dec- 09 n.a. 34,08513,878 Dec-10 n.a. 34,51915,889 Dec-11 n.a. 31,12213,531 Source :IVS Northern Cooloola Section 5: International Overnight Market 52March 12 Quarterly Report FINAL
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Base Trends Assembled Demand Drivers mathematically determined Forecasts of economic drivers sourced EMDA Composite Index of Drivers Mathematically derived Forecasts of the Sunshine Coast Inbound, Overnight Domestic and Accommodation Sector The diagram right outlines the model development process. Excludes the impact of major new changes to the Sunshine Coast product. This update - Visitor numbers (International and Domestic Overnight) Model Update Process - SunMo Section 6 Demand Outlook for the Sunshine Coast 53March 12 Quarterly Report FINAL
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Section 6 Demand Outlook for the Sunshine Coast The Global Financial uncertainty is still impacting on the Australian economy, but the worst is behind us and GDP and Household Spending growing again. Both Australian GDP and Household Spending are expected to continue to recover. March 12 forecasts are slightly better than the Dec. 11 forecasts thanks to some improvement in the global economy - especially the in the US. Source : ABS / EMDA F F Economic Outlook 54March 12 Quarterly Report FINAL
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Section 6 Demand Outlook for the Sunshine Coast Source : IVS/NVS / EMDA Sunshine Coast Visitor Forecasts Inbound (RHS) Domestic (LHS) F Inbound Drivers (R2 = 0.88) NZ GDP, UK GDP, TFC Outlook, $A exchange Rate Domestic Drivers (R2 = 0.89) Aus. GDP, QLD, NSW, Vic Private Consumption., RMR Preference With Household spending growth gathering pace over 2012, the outlook is better in terms of domestic visitor numbers. Inbound growth tempered by the high Australian dollar and also the short term economic problems in Europe. In 2013, both domestic overnight (+3.6%) and inbound is now forecast to rise (+4.6%). Domestic Overnight Inbound (‘000)% p.a.(‘000)% p.a. Jun-08 2,936,000-0.4282,415-3.1 Jun-09 2,589,000-11.8275,897-2.3 Jun-10 2,439,000-5.8280,3961.6 Jun-11 2,783,00014.1259,898-7.3 Jun-12 2,882,0003.5235,000-9.8 Jun-13 2,987,0003.6245,0004.6 Jun-14 3,093,0003.5256,0004.1 Jun-15 3,205,0003.6266,0004.2 55March 12 Quarterly Report FINAL
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Key Point Summary The Australian economy continues to grow and the outlook is better now that the Euro debt crisis has eased significantly. WA and Qld are growing quite strongly, where NSW is recording moderate growth and Vic. is flat. This economic uncertainty has meant the domestic overnight holiday market is flat, both nationally and also for Qld. and holiday spending is well down as holidaymakers tighten their belts and save money. In contrast, Australians are still attracted to overseas holidays thanks to the high Aussie dollar. Against this weak domestic back drop Sunshine Coast tourism has performed well :- Domestic overnight visitors are up 4.7%, spending is up 4.0%. Domestic visitor nights are up 2.7%. Preference to holiday on the Sunshine Coast although weaker compared with last year is showing an improvement compared with Sept. 11. The International market to Aus. and Qld. has been very weak with holiday spending and visitation down, mainly due to the renewed concerns about the global financial system and the high Australian dollar. Against this weak International market, the Sunshine Coast has also softened but so too has the other holiday destinations of the Gold Coast, Whitsundays and Tropical North Queensland. In terms of the outlook, with spending growth gathering pace over 2012, the outlook is better for visitor numbers to the Coast domestically. The International market is forecast to be better in 2013 now the European debt situation has eased. Section 7 : Summary 56March 12 Quarterly Report FINAL
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Disclaimer While every effort has been made to ensure accuracy of the data in this report, EMDA has not audited the data sources and therefore does not accept any responsibility in relation to financial and/or decisions based on this information. Ownership of all Intellectual Property (modelling methods, EMDA Positioning Maps resides with EMDA). 57March 12 Quarterly Report FINAL
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