1. Canadian International Council Ottawa City Hall October 15, 2015 John M. Curtis

2. Trade Agreements are both:  Geopolitical – foreign policy  Economic – structural (competitiveness, efficiency) 2

3.  TPP began as a P-4 in 2004  US joined in 2009, changing the scope and objectives of the negotiations  Canada, Mexico, and Japan joined the negotiations in 2011-2012  Group that completed the negotiations on October 5 th numbered 12; China, Indonesia, Korea, Thailand and Taiwan not party to the agreement  Ratification/implementation issues 3

4.  No version yet; some leaks  Overall, Agreement appears broad, but shallow  Traditional elements included – tariff reductions/elimination (affecting preference margins); NTBs; services (including movement of persons); intellectual property; dispute settlement  Innovative elements – electronic commerce; development (including capacity building); environment, labour standards 4

5.  Minimally positive for Canada, USA (0.2/0.3% of GDP per year); other participants up to 1-1.5% of GDP per year)  Negative impact (up to –0.5% of GDP per year) had we not signed on  Overall, gains for agricultural sector (beef, wheat, canola, etc.), industrial inputs, business and transportation services, government procurement, losses for auto and supply management sectors. Consumers/taxpayers gain and lose! 5