1. Parental socioeconomic influences on filial educational attainment An investigation of Scottish young people and patterns of school level educational performance 7 th /8 th September 2015 Dr Chris Playford, Prof Vernon Gayle, Dr Roxanne Connelly & Dr Susan Murray

2. Contents Introduction to study Previous research Research questions Scottish Longitudinal Study Sample construction Measures SQA Educational data Models Conclusions 2

3. Scotland Northern Ireland England Wales Different educational systems in Scotland (compared to England and Wales) Map of the United Kingdom 3

4. Introduction to study Standard Grades are most widely taken qualifications in year S4 at end of compulsory schooling (Brisard & Menter, 2008) Subject level attainment has implications for future educational and economic opportunities for young people (Jin, Muriel & Sibieta 2011) Previous work has looked at GCSE attainment in England and Wales No singular measure of attainment (Playford and Gayle 2015) Measures are largely aggregate or agglomerate and do not explore subject-level attainment 4

5. Previous Research Attainment in England & Wales Two previous studies using agglomerate measures in England and Wales did not identify a clearly defined middle attainment group Connelly, Murray & Gayle (2013) using the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) Gayle, Murray and Connelly (2014) using the Youth Cohort Study (YCS) However, Playford and Gayle (2015) did identify patterns of subject-specific attainment in combinations of subjects in England and Wales using the YCS Four Latent Groups were identified Not just in individual subjects but in combinations of subjects Two middle attainment groups Differences in attainment in Science & Maths and English & Humanities 5

6. Previous Research Attainment in Scotland Persistent differentials in overall attainment by parental occupation (Croxford 2009) Pupils from managerial/professional backgrounds had the highest achievement Differences in participation in sciences (Croxford 1994 & Croxford 1997) Girls less likely to study sciences, particularly chemistry and physics Participation in biology, chemistry and physics was lower among pupils with manual than non-manual families Maintenance of positional advantage by middle class parents (Croxford 2015) Scottish School Leavers Survey 1977-2005 Subsequently discontinued by Scottish Government Reduction in inequalities in educational attainment at the compulsory stage but increased inequalities at the end of post-compulsory education for pupils from managerial/professional backgrounds 6

7. Research Questions What is the relationship between parental socio-economic positions and subject specific patterns of filial standard grade attainment in contemporary Scotland? Are there empirical regularities between attainment in combinations of Standard Grade subjects in Scotland? How does this compare with England and Wales (see Playford & Gayle 2015)? Sociological Context ‘Missing Middle’ in youth research (Roberts 2012) Appeal to better document experiences of ordinary young people using large scale datasets (Roberts 2011) 7

8. Scottish Longitudinal Study 8 Source: Boyle et al. (2009: 388) – Table 2

9. Education Data in the SLS Education data linked from ScotXed (2007-2011) Schools Census SQA Attainment Absences Exclusions http://sls.lscs.ac.uk/guides-resources/what-data-are- included/education-data/ See Raab (2013) Over 90% of qualifications studied in year S4 are Standard Grades Source: Raab (2013: 23) 9

10. Sample construction Scottish Qualifications Authority (SQA) data for those gaining Standard Grades in S4 in school years 2007/8 – 2010/11 n = 10,768 Information on SLS member (Census 2001) Parental Information (Census 2001) Data included in analysis n = 9,032 8,691 in models including CAMSIS 8,466 in models including NS-SEC 10

11. Central qualifications undertaken by pupils in secondary schools in Scotland (historically) Levels of Pass 1-2Credit 3-4 General 5-6Foundation No single recognised measure of school attainment at Standard Grade level Standard Grades 11 Example of Standard Grade Certificate

12. Figures 1 & 2 12 Standard Grade Points Score (inverted) - see Croxford et al. (2007) 7 points = Grade 1 (Highest) 1 point = Grade 7 (Lowest) Number of Credit Passes (Standard Grades 1 & 2)

13. Figure 3 13

14. Table 1 14 Table 1: Agglomerate Measures of Standard Grade Attainment Source: SLS, n=9,032, Unweighted data. Summary Measures(%) 0 Standard Grade Passes at Grades 1-39% 1-4 Standard Grade Passes at Grades 1-335% 5+ Standard Grade Passes at Grades 1-355% 0 Standard Grade Credit Passes (grades 1-2)27% 1-4 Standard Grade Credit Passes (grades 1-2)40% 5+ Standard Grade Credit Passes (grades 1-2)32% Mean Standard Grades Points Score (a)32.5 Mean Number of Standard Grades Studied (b)6.2 Mean Standard Grade Points Score per Standard Grade Studied (a/b)5.3 Grade of Mean Standard Grade Points Score per Standard Grade Studied3 Mean number of Standard Grade Passes at Grades 1-34.5 Mean number of Standard Grade Credit Passes (grades 1-2)3.0

15. Modes of StudySubject Courses Minimum Time Language and CommunicationEnglish360 hours modern language Mathematical studies and applicationsmathematics200 hours Scientific studies and applicationsbiology160 hours or chemistry or physics or science Social and environmental studiesclassical studies160 hours or contemporary social studies or economics or geography or history or modern studies Religious and moral educationreligious studies80 hours religious and moral education Physical educationphysical education80 hours Creative and aesthetic activitiesart and design80 hours drama music Technological activities and applicationscomputing studies80 hours craft and design home economics office and information studies technological studies Croxford (1994) describes development of curriculum in Scotland Analytical decisions: Separated modern languages from English Included religious studies within Humanities Grouped physical education with Other Subjects Subject Choice at Standard Grade 15 Source: SCCC 1989, Croxford 1994

16. An example of Standard Grade choices 16 Source: Dundee High School

17. Table 2 Subject GroupsStandard Grades Number of pupils gaining grades 1-7 English 7,725 Mathematics 6,959 SciencesBiology; Chemistry; Physics; Science6,479 Humanities Classical Studies; Contemporary Social Studies; Economics; Geography; History; Latin; Modern Studies; Religious Studies 7,527 Languages French; Gaidhlig; Gaelic (Learner); German; Italian; Spanish; Urdu 5,761 Creative ArtsArt; Drama; Music3,840 Other Subjects Physical Education; Accounting and Finance; Administration; Computing Studies; Craft and Design; Graphic Communication; Home Economics; Social and Vocational Studies; Technological Studies; Business Management 7,295 Total 9,032 17 Table 2: Year S4 School Standard Grade Subjects Source: SLS, n=9,032, Unweighted data.

18. Table 3 EnglishMathematicsSciencesHumanitiesLanguagesCreative Arts Other Subjects English 1.00 Mathematics 0.691.00 Sciences 0.660.811.00 Humanities 0.700.710.761.00 Languages 0.680.71 0.681.00 Creative Arts 0.470.360.370.43 1.00 Other Subjects 0.440.490.500.510.390.111.00 18 Table 3: Year S4 School Standard Grade Attainment: Tetrachoric Correlations Source: SLS, n=9,032, Unweighted data.

19. Table 4 19 Table 4: Latent Educational Group Models (Goodness of Fit Statistics) Source: SLS, n=9,032, Unweighted data. ModelLLDevianceΔ DevianceDFAdj. BICEntropy R-Squared 2 Group-32886.71500.0-1121588.50.85 3 Group-32418.9563.9936.1104700.30.72 4 Group-32294.8315.6248.396499.50.70 5 Group-32243.3212.7102.988444.00.69 6 Group-32212.8151.760.080430.50.63 7 GroupModel did not converge

20. Figure 4 20

21. Table 5 21 Latent Group 1 Low 2 Mid 3 Mid 4 High 5 High 6 HighAll Mean number of Standard Grade Passes at Grades 1-3 2.15.06.06.86.97.34.5 Mean number of Standard Grade Credit Passes (grades 1-2) 0.42.54.35.46.26.93.0 Mean Standard Grades Points Score (a)21.333.037.442.544.747.732.5 Table 5: Agglomerate measures of School Standard Grade Attainment by Latent Group Source: SLS, n=9,032, Unweighted data.

22. Table 6a Latent Group 1 “Low 0.4” (Posterior Probabilities) % Assigned to Group 40% (Prior Probabilities) English Credit1% Maths Credit1% Science Credit1% Humanities Credit0% Languages Credit1% Creative Arts Credit7% Other Subjects Cred.19% N (based on posterior)3,654 22 Table 6: Latent Group Model Results (Six Group Model) School Standard Grade Attainment – Posterior Probabilities and Prior Probabilities (percentages) Source: SLS, n=9,032, Unweighted data.

23. Table 6b Latent Group 1 “Low 0.4” 2 “Mid 2.5” 3 “Mid 4.3” (Posterior Probabilities) % Assigned to Group 40%19%14% (Prior Probabilities) English Credit1%37%43% Maths Credit1%3%38% Science Credit1%12%74% Humanities Credit0%39%67% Languages Credit1%11%28% Creative Arts Credit7%33%17% Other Subjects Cred.19%49%85% N (based on posterior)3,6541,6891,267 23 Table 6: Latent Group Model Results (Six Group Model) School Standard Grade Attainment – Posterior Probabilities and Prior Probabilities (percentages) Source: SLS, n=9,032, Unweighted data.

24. Table 6c Latent Group 1 “Low 0.4” 2 “Mid 2.5” 3 “Mid 4.3” 4 “High 5.4” 5 “High 6.2” 6 “High 6.9” (Posterior Probabilities) % Assigned to Group 40%19%14%3%6%18% (Prior Probabilities) English Credit1%37%43%100%76%89% Maths Credit1%3%38%48%51%87% Science Credit1%12%74%0%83%100% Humanities Credit0%39%67%78%86%90% Languages Credit1%11%28%66%72%76% Creative Arts Credit7%33%17%50%85%43% Other Subjects Cred.19%49%85%92%32%81% N (based on posterior)3,6541,6891,2673055251,592 24 Table 6: Latent Group Model Results (Six Group Model) School Standard Grade Attainment – Posterior Probabilities and Prior Probabilities (percentages) Source: SLS, n=9,032, Unweighted data.

25. Table 7 Latent Group 1 Low 0.4 2 Mid 2.5 3 Mid 4.3 4 High 5.4 5 High 6.2 6 High 6.9 All 0 Standard Grade Credit Passes (grades 1-2) 68%0% 27% 1-4 Standard Grade Credit Passes (grades 1-2) 32%96%52%21%12%2%40% 5+ Standard Grade Credit Passes (grades 1-2) 0%4%48%79%88%98%32% 25 Table 7: Benchmark School Standard Grade Attainment by Latent Group (Column Percentages) Source: SLS, n=9,032, Unweighted data.

26. Continuation Ratio Models 26 LG 1 Latent Groups 2 - 6 LG 2Latent Groups 3 - 6 LG 3 Latent Groups 4 - 6 LG 4Latent Groups 5 - 6 LG 5LG 6 Higher Attainment Lower Attainment Middle Attainment Latent Groups

27. Explanatory Variables Sex CAMSIS / NS-SEC (Sensitivity Analysis) Parental Highest Qualification Child Lives With Both parents Mother only Father only Additional Controls Long Term Illness Father Long Term Illness Mother Long Term Illness 27

28. Patterns of Attainment Latent Group model fitted to aggregated data Assignment Modal assignment Weighting using posterior membership probability (see Vermunt 2010) Assignment to Latent Groups 28 SubjectAttainment EnglishNo Credit Pass MathsNo Credit Pass SciencesNo Credit Pass HumanitiesNo Credit Pass LanguagesNo Credit Pass Creative ArtsNo Credit Pass Other SubjectsNo Credit Pass

29. Table 9 Parental CAMSIS (Male Scale, Semi-Dominance) Modal AssignmentPosterior Probability Assignment Latent GroupCoefficientStandard ErrorCoefficientStandard Error 2-6 vs. 1 (Low 0.4)0.03 *** (0.00)0.02 *** (0.00) 3-6 vs. 2 (Middle 2.5)0.02 *** (0.00)0.02 *** (0.00) 4-6 vs. 3 (Middle 4.3)0.01 *** (0.00)0.01 *** (0.00) 5-6 vs. 4 (High 5.4)0.01(0.01)0.00(0.00) 6 (High 6.9) vs. 5 (High 6.2)-0.01 * (0.01)-0.00(0.00) n8,691 29 Table 11: Continuation Ratio Logistic Regression Model on Latent Group Membership Controls: Sex, Long Term Illness, Father Long Term Illness, Mother Long Term Illness, Child Lives With, Parental Highest Qualification Source: SLS, Unweighted data.

30. Table 6c Latent Group 1 “Low 0.4” 2 “Mid 2.5” 3 “Mid 4.3” 4 “High 5.4” 5 “High 6.2” 6 “High 6.9” (Posterior Probabilities) % Assigned to Group 40%19%14%3%6%18% (Prior Probabilities) English Credit1%37%43%100%76%89% Maths Credit1%3%38%48%51%87% Science Credit1%12%74%0%83%100% Humanities Credit0%39%67%78%86%90% Languages Credit1%11%28%66%72%76% Creative Arts Credit7%33%17%50%85%43% Other Subjects Cred.19%49%85%92%32%81% N (based on posterior)3,6541,6891,2673055251,592 30 Table 6: Latent Group Model Results (Six Group Model) School Standard Grade Attainment – Posterior Probabilities and Prior Probabilities (percentages) Source: SLS, n=9,032, Unweighted data.

31. Figure 5.1 31

32. Figure 5.2 32

33. Figure 5.3 33

34. Figure 5.4 34

35. Table 6c Latent Group 1 “Low 0.4” 2 “Mid 2.5” 3 “Mid 4.3” 4 “High 5.4” 5 “High 6.2” 6 “High 6.9” (Posterior Probabilities) % Assigned to Group 40%19%14%3%6%18% (Prior Probabilities) English Credit1%37%43%100%76%89% Maths Credit1%3%38%48%51%87% Science Credit1%12%74%0%83%100% Humanities Credit0%39%67%78%86%90% Languages Credit1%11%28%66%72%76% Creative Arts Credit7%33%17%50%85%43% Other Subjects Cred.19%49%85%92%32%81% N (based on posterior)3,6541,6891,2673055251,592 35 Table 6: Latent Group Model Results (Six Group Model) School Standard Grade Attainment – Posterior Probabilities and Prior Probabilities (percentages) Source: SLS, n=9,032, Unweighted data.

36. Figure 6.1 36 Controls: Long Term Illness, Father Long Term Illness, Mother Long Term Illness, Child Lives With, CAMSIS, Parental Highest Qualification

37. Figure 6.2 37 Controls: Long Term Illness, Father Long Term Illness, Mother Long Term Illness, Child Lives With, CAMSIS, Parental Highest Qualification

38. Conclusions Analysis of Latent groups has identified two latent groups of middle attainment This would be concealed by traditional agglomerate measures of attainment The patterns of attainment in combinations of subjects are similar to those identified in England and Wales (see Playford and Gayle 2015) Improved attainment in Mathematics and Science would be most effective at raising overall attainment for those in the lower of the middle attainment groups Latent group membership differs by: Parental occupation - measured using CAMSIS and NS-SEC Sex – Boys are much more likely to be in the upper of the middle attainment groups (who do relatively well at Mathematics and Science) The data analysed cover a period in Scotland where survey data are not available The model has been tested for sensitivity to assumptions about assignment to latent groups 38

39. Reflections Number of latent groups Individual subjects are not compulsory Iannelli and Klein (2015) identify that differentiation at the end of post-compulsory education tends to occur through a combination of subject choice and attainment However, failure to gain a Credit pass at Standard Grade (for either reason) represents a potential barrier to future routes Other qualifications Intermediates 1 & 2 introduced in 2000 More likely to be studied by lower attainment and working class students (Howieson, Raffe & Tinklin 2004) Account for less than 10% of qualifications studied in the linked SQA attainment data 39

40. Next steps Write paper Future work Compare latent class models with factor analysis Potentially examine processes of choice versus attainment in subjects Explore different qualifications New Scottish qualifications (Curriculum for Excellence reforms) Other British datasets 40

41. With thanks to chris.playford@ed.ac.uk The help provided by staff of the Longitudinal Studies Centre – Scotland (LSCS) is acknowledged. The LSCS is supported by the ESRC/JISC, the Scottish Funding Council, the Chief Scientist’s Office and the Scottish Government. The authors alone are responsible for the interpretation of the data. Census output is Crown copyright and is reproduced with the permission of the Controller of HMSO and the Queen’s Printer for Scotland. Funder: Economic and Social Research Council Project: Administrative Data Research Centre - Scotland Grant number: ES/L007487/1

42. References (1) Brisard, E., & Menter, I. (2008). Compulsory Education in the United Kingdom. In D. Matheson (Ed.), An Introduction to the Study of Education (3rd ed., pp. 240-265). Abingdon, Oxon: Routledge. Connelly, R., Murray, S., & Gayle, V. (2013). Young People and School GCSE Attainment: Exploring the 'Middle'. Sociological Research Online, 18(1), 6. Croxford, L. (1994). Equal Opportunities in the Secondary ‐ School Curriculum in Scotland, 1977 ‐ 91. British Educational Research Journal, 20(4), 371-391. doi: 10.1080/0141192940200402 Croxford, L. (1994). Trends in the Scottish Curriculum Framework for the S3-S4 Stages, 1983-1990. Scottish Educational Review, 26(2), 97-109. Croxford, L. (1997). Participation in science subjects: the effect of the Scottish curriculum framework. Research Papers in Education, 12(1), 69-89. doi: 10.1080/0267152970120105 42

43. References (2) Croxford, L. (2009). Change Over Time in the Context, Outcomes and Inequalities of Secondary Schooling in Scotland, 1985-2005. Edinburgh: The Scottish Government. Croxford, L. (2015). Inequalities. In D. Murphy, L. Croxford, C. Howieson, & D. Raffe (Eds.), Everyone's Future: Lessons from fifty years of Scottish comprehensive schooling (pp. 110- 138). London: IOE Press. Gayle, V., Murray, S., & Connelly, R. (2014). Young people and school General Certificate of Secondary Education attainment: looking for the ‘missing middle’. British Journal of Sociology of Education, 1-21. doi: 10.1080/01425692.2014.935292 Howieson, C., Raffe, D., & Tinklin, T. (2004). The use of New National Qualifications in S3 and S4 in 2002-03. Scottish Educational Review, 36(2), 177-190. Iannelli, C., & Klein, M. (2015). Subject choice and inequalities in access to higher education. AQMeN Research Briefing 7. University of Edinburgh. Retrieved from https://www.aqmen.ac.uk/sites/default/files/RB7-subject-choice.pdf 43

44. References (3) Jin, W., Muriel, A., & Sibieta, L. (2011). Subject and course choices at ages 14 and 16 amongst young people in England: Insights from Behavioural Economics Research Report DFE-RR160. London: Department for Education. Playford, C. J., & Gayle, V. (2015). The concealed middle? An exploration of ordinary young people and school GCSE subject area attainment. Journal of Youth Studies, 1-20. doi: 10.1080/13676261.2015.1052049 Raab, G. M. (2013). Education data available within the Scottish Longitudinal Study Scottish Longitudinal Development & Support Unit Technical Working Paper (Vol. 6). Vermunt, J. K. (2010). Latent Class Modeling with Covariates: Two Improved Three-Step Approaches. Political Analysis, 18(4), 450-469. doi: 10.1093/pan/mpq025 For details of the two stage modelling process, see: http://www.psychometrics.cam.ac.uk/studentsteaching/tutorial-materials/slidesprezis/mplus--mar-09 http://www.psychometrics.cam.ac.uk/uploads/documents/ESRC_RDI_Mar09/HeronJ/cross-sectional-smoking-3.ppt Prof Tim Croudace (University of Dundee) and Dr Jon Heron (University of Bristol) 44