2. 1.Background 2.Approach 3.Methodology 4.Outcomes 5.Summary & conclusion 6.Acknowledgement

3. Metropolitan Region Scheme Grew out of Stephenson Hepburn PlanPopulation 2014: 1.8 m 2031: 2.6 m 2052: 3.5 m

4. BackgroundScenarios Directions 31 sets out 3 development scenarios: Polycentric city Polycentric city Development concentrated around regional activity centres Dispersed Dispersed Business as usual – suburban sprawl Semi-polycentric Semi-polycentric Hybrid of the two

5. BackgroundUrban Economic Study DoP appointed Pracsys to deliver economic study of 3 scenarios. Main cost drivers: Water Energy Transport GHD undertook transport component

6. BackgroundUrban Economic Study Study is in two phases: 1.Proof of concept (finished) 2.More detailed analysis (under way)

7. ApproachType of model Time & budget constraints Rapid, low cost, high level output required Conventional modelling not suitable Rapid assessment approach  Rapid assessment approach Trip generation Demand per corridor Existing capacity Required infrastructure

8. MethodologyTrip generation DoP and Pracsys generated 621 employment zones 175 residential zones Home – work trips (gravity model) GHD generated 56 zones mapped to the Pracsys zones Total morning peak trip numbers

9. MethodologyTravel corridors Spiderweb diagram Travel corridors v planning corridors Adjust trips to corridors

10. MethodologyScreenlines Screenlines placed strategically across corridors 42 screenlines in proof of concept study 140 screenlines in detailed study

11. MethodologyCapacity and shortfall At each screenline: a)Calculate demand From spiderweb diagram b)Calculate existing capacity Road, rail, bus c)Shortfall = demand – existing capacity

12. MethodologySpreadsheet model

13. MethodologyRequired infrastructure Infrastructure recommendations informed by: 2031 Public Transport Master Plan Moving People Moving Freight Other forward planning

14. MethodologyRequired infrastructure New infrastructure suggested 1.Additional road and freeway lanes where already planned 2.Better utilisation of existing roads 3.Improved heavy rail capacity 4.Bus lanes and bus rapid transit 5.New light rail 6.New heavy rail

15. MethodologyRequired infrastructure

16. OutcomesPT mode share Proof of concept 201120312052 Current10% Modelling outcome40%60% Agency target14%19%

17. OutcomesCosts Scenario Population Polycentric ($ billion) Semi- polycentric ($ billion) Dispersed ($ billion) Current to 2.6 million 14.8617.0114.18 2.6 to 3.5 million 17.9021.6034.84 Total 32.7638.6149.02

18. OutcomesSome key points CBD environs will remain largest employment centre Up to 2.6 M population, current PT planning is adequate After 2.6 M, new links needed rapidly Northern suburbs railway will hit capacity before 2031 – new East Wanneroo railway required North / central corridor (Mirrabooka to CBD) is a weak link

19. OutcomesSome key points Legacy railways have excess capacity Extra capacity needs to be achieved from existing roads Spatial location of population and employment is key to good transport outcomes.

20. ConclusionProof of concept Rapid, low cost, high level assessment of infrastructure requirement Three development scenarios with two population targets Method relies on simple arithmetic and engineering judgement – agreed with transport agencies Proof of concept model is coarse-grained but results pass sanity test Mode share skewed to PT

21. ConclusionNext steps More fine-grained analysis under way Revised population / employment distribution More zones, corridors and screenlines Mode share needs attention

22. Acknowledgements Department of Planning, Western Australia Pracsys Department of Transport Public Transport Authority Main Roads Western Australia

23. Email: paul.fisher@ghd.com www.ghd.com