1. On the Universal Cooperation on the Standardization of the Drought Severity – by Hi-Ryong Byun In IFMS (2010,1.20), hrbyun@pknu.ac.kr 1.Necessity a. Catastrophes by Droughts have been so severe and so frequent in history. (The only disaster that can destroy Dynasty and/or Culture) b. The Catastrophe along with global warming will have the biggest possibility in drought. c. Recent years, so many droughts have occurred worldwide. 2. Poor Preparedness a. There are no Universal Def. of drought. (Classified into 3, meteorological, agricultural and hydrological droughts.) b. There are no drought index known to be usable worldwide. (About 70 kind of drought indexes are available now). c. Each country has its own method to detect drought severity. (Big needs of the Universally Standardized Index on drought severity) 3. “Lincoln Declaration on Drought Indices” has been coming out.

2. Lincoln Declaration on Drought Indices (Copenhagen, Geneva, 15 December 2009) Experts agree on a universal drought index to cope with climate risk. 1.The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) should be used to characterize meteorological droughts by all National meteorological and Hydrological Services around the world. 2.The experts decided to undertake a similar, comprehensive review of agricultural and hydrological droughts in order to develop common indices for better early warnings in the agricultural and water sectors. 3. WMO will develop a user manual on SPI and will establish two working groups with the objective of recommending, by the end of 2010, indices for global use to cope with agricultural and hydrological droughts. *. Gooood Idea, however, let’s see the weaknesses of SPI shortly.

3. The weakness of SPI in long term drought In case of 5 years precipitation deficit, SPI1,3,6,9 and 12 cannot detect drought, but EDI detect. SPI24 is similar to EDI But …. 0. SPI is not one index, but many indices with sliding drought durations. (EDI can detect the start and the end date of drought of itself.) 0. SPIs cannot detect the time dependent consumption of water resources, therefore, the effect of evaporation, runoff cannot take into acount. (Effective Drought Index (EDI) use time dependent reduction function to calculate Available Water Resource Index(AWRI) and drought severity.

4. The weakness of SPI in short term drought a)In case of 6 month’s precipitation deficit, 1. SPI12 and 24 cannot detect it, and SPI1 and 3 overestimate the situation 2. But EDI and SPI6 detect the situation. b) In case of short no rain in rainy season 1. EDI detect the drought but most of SPIs do not. REFS) J. hydrol. 378(2009),1-12.

5. Conclusion and discussion 1.We welcome the “Lincoln declaration on drought indices.” 2. However, we prefer EDI to SPI because 0. EDI can detect drought duration of itself but SPI has sliding time scales. 0. EDI is one index a day but SPI is many and many indices a day. 0. EDI is the index for global use to cope with meteorological, agricultural and hydrological droughts but SPI is only for meteorological drought. 0. EDI shows not only the drought condition but also the deficit of water resources with help of AWRI. ----- The End -- Thanks ------

7. Relationship between meteorological and geophysical societies Scholarships –International Cooperative/joint scientific recommendations Promoting best practices Policy advice & advocacy Domestic outreach Multi-sector collaboration & cooperation Financial viability; 2x Membership -- retention and development; 2x Research support Assistance/Support for –Climate change assessments in the tropics –Website development –Technical and scientific efforts Technical and financial support for advanced observations (e.g. radar and radiosoundings) International outreach – identifying needs and addressing missed opportunities Integrity of the scientific review process On the needs of united efforts worldwide to increase arctic sea ice

8. A Motion to Establish an International Forum of Meteorological Societies (IFMS) -- adopted 13 January 2009) Preamble. The issues, challenges and solutions facing the meteorological societies around the world have many global commonalities. Yet, there exists no global forum for them to readily share their experiences and identify opportunities; today’s inter-society interactions are primarily bilateral (apart from those among several regional societies). A representative cross-section consisting of 20 of the world’s meteorological societies convened in a planning meeting held January 13, 2009, in Phoenix, Arizona, USA, to consider establishing an International Forum of Meteorological Societies that would address issues of common concern. One mechanism for achieving the Forum’s goals would be a series of occasional meetings of representatives of the world’s national and regional meteorological societies. Those participating in the planning meeting indicated broad and enthusiastic support for the Forum concept.

9. A Motion to Establish an International Forum of Meteorological Societies (IFMS) – adopted 13 January 2009 The Motion. It is proposed that: –an International Forum of Meteorological Societies (hereafter referred to as the ‘Forum’) be established for the broad purpose of facilitating the exchange of knowledge, experience and information among the world’s national and regional meteorological societies; -the terms of reference of the Forum will be drafted by a Steering Committee, for approval at the first meeting of the Forum, which will provide guidance and direction for the occasional meetings of the member societies and other communications mechanisms (for example, establishing a Forum website); -the first meeting of the Forum will be held in 2010 in conjunction with the 90th Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society (17-21 January 2010, in Atlanta, Georgia); -the Forum will not have official or legal status; it will function primarily to facilitate communication among the member societies, and encourage follow- through on action items identified by the member societies; and - membership in the Forum will be voluntary and open to all national and regional meteorological and closely related professional/scientific societies.