1. INCORPORATING ENVIRONMENTAL VARIABILITY INTO THE MANAGEMENT OF A LARGE MARINE ECOSYSTEM – THE BCLME AS AN EXAMPLE Johann Augustyn Marine and Coastal Management Department of Environmental Affairs and Tourism South Africa Acknowledgements: Lesley Staegemann, Tony van Dalsen

2. THE BENGUELA IS A HIGHLY VARIABLE SYSTEM The Benguela ecosystem is naturally adapted to a highly variable environment, but sustained transboundary events, e.g. –Benguela Niños –widespread hypoxia –Agulhas Current intrusions –changes in winds can impact on the whole system, compounding negative effects of fishing It is necessary to understand the impact of this variability on fish distribution and abundance, and to predict major environmental events and their likely ecosystem consequences in order to manage effectively system-wide

3. BOUNDARIES AND SURFACE CURRENTS OF THE BENGUELA

4. KEY COMPONENTS OF ENVIRONMENTALVARIABILITY WHICH HAVE SYSTEM-WIDE IMPACTS ON LIVING RESOURCES 1. BENGUELA NIÑOS

5. MODELLING Subsurface propagation of warm and cold subsurface anomalies along the coast in March 1984 and 1997. Acknowledgement: Pierre Florenchie

6. HYPOXIA & ANOXIA IN THE BCLME

7. EASTERN TROPICAL SOUTH ATLANTIC CYCLONIC CIRCULATION Acknowledgements: P Monteiro, A. van der Plas and others. In press

8. ROCKLOBSTER WALKOUT

9. RED TIDES

12. HAKE STOCKS STRADLE THE BORDER BETWEEN SOUTH AFRICA AND NAMIBIA NAMIBIA SOUTH AFRICA Acknowledge M. Lipinski

13. Circulation in the Namibia/South Africa boundary area deduced from models Schematic circulation reproduced by the model at (a) 230m, (b) 350m and at (c) 575m depths.

14. STATE OF ENVIRONMENT INFORMATION AND EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS 1999 TDA identified uncertainty regarding ecosystem status and yields in a highly variable environment as a major transboundary problem. Development of a viable monitoring and early warning system and improving predictability of extreme events seen as cornerstones of SAP Policy Action C “Assessing Environmental Variability, Ecosystem Impacts and Improvement of Predictability” SOE information and EWS have accordingly been priorities for EVAG

15. SOME ELEMENTS OF THE SOE SYSTEM DEVELOPED IN NAMIBIA 0 1500 3000 4500 Jan.00 Jul.00 Jan.01 Jul.01 Jan.02 Jul.02 Jan.03 Jul.03 numbers/m³ Vertical extent of low oxygen off central Namibia Copepod abundance off central Namibia

16. SST in January 2005: The warmest in two decades: Global climate change?

17. DEVELOPMENT OF EWS FOR THE BCLME The BCLME Programme has invested in:  Re-interpretation of existing data and information  Cost-effective in situ monitoring  Application of satellite remote sensing  Modelling  Developing a predictive capacity Proper understanding of processes supported by appropriate measurements and modelling with a view to predicting, are the essential elements of the emerging EWS

18. THE BENGUELA: PREDICTING A LARGE MARINE ECOSYSTEM  Definitive peer-reviewed book to be published by Elsevier  Captures the combined wisdom of more than 100 international experts who met in Cape Town in November 2005 to address forecasting and data assimilation in the Benguela and comparable systems  Shows that we ARE now ready to design an operational system for forecasting in the Benguela.  Includes a comprehensive assessment of environmental and resource variability in the BCLME and latest developments in model applications.  Relevant for sustainable management of the Benguela  Blueprint for application in other comparable ecosystems around the World.

19. CONCLUSION The BCLME Programme is making excellent progress in addressing promised Output 3 Strategy viz. “Environmental variability, its ecosystem impacts are assessed, and predictability is improved for enhancing the management of living marine resources” when I judge it against its stated OVIs and MOVs. It really is making a difference for sustainable integrated management of the ecosystem.

20. THE CHALLENGE To incorporate our knowledge of environmental variability and change, its predictability and its impacts on living marine resources into viable system-wide EAF (Ecosystem Approaches to Fisheries) management in the BCLME