1. The Psychology of Inductive Inference Psychology 355: Cognitive Psychology Instructor: John Miyamoto 5/26/2016: Lecture 09-4 Note: This Powerpoint presentation may contain macros that I wrote to help me create the slides. The macros aren’t needed to view the slides. You can disable or delete the macros without any change to the presentation.

2. Outline Finish: What promotes analogical transfer? Deductive and inductive reasoning Expected utility theory - the normative theory of rational action The heuristics & biases research program ♦ The availability heuristic – What is it? ♦ The representativeness heuristic – What is it? Psych 355, Miyamoto, Spr ‘16 2 Lecture probably ends here The Radiation Problem and Two Versions of the Lightbulb Problem

3. Radiation Problem and Two Versions of the Lightbulb Problem Radiation Problem: How to kill a tumor with a radiation beam without killing the intervening healthy tissue? ( This was the base problem in the study of the lightbulb problem. ) Lightbulb Problem: How to mend the lightbulb filament with a laser without causing the glass to shatter? ( This is the test problem. ) ♦ Fragile Glass Version – shares both superficial & structural features with the Radiation Problem: ♦ Insufficient Intensity Version – shares superficial BUT NOT structural features with the Radiation Problem: Psych 355,, Miyamoto, Spr '16 3

4. Comparison of Features Among the Problems Psych 355, Miyamoto, Spr '16 4 Superficial FeatureStructural Feature Problem Medium of Action Why One Strong Beam/Attack Not Possible Analogical Transfer Successful? Radiation ProblemX-ray beam One strong x-ray beam will injure the intervening tissue. Radiation problem is the source problem Lightbulb Problem (Insufficient Intensity Version) Laser beam High intensity laser not available poor Lightbulb Problem (Fragile Glass Version) Laser beam High intensity laser will break the glass. good Same Slide with Emphasis Rectangles

5. Superficial FeatureStructural Feature Problem Medium of Action Why One Strong Beam/Line of Attack Not Possible Analogical Transfer Successful? Radiation ProblemX-ray beam One strong x-ray beam will injure the intervening tissue. Radiation problem is the source problem Lightbulb Problem (Insufficient Intensity Version) Laser beam High intensity laser not available poor Lightbulb Problem (Fragile Glass Version) Laser beam High intensity laser will break the glass. good Comparison of Features Among the Problems Psych 355, Miyamoto, Spr '16 5 What Influences the Likelihood of Analogical Transfer?

6. Psych 355, Miyamoto, Spr '16 6 Superficial Similarities + Structural Similarities Analogical Transfer Introduction to Inductive Inference

7. Introduction to Reasoning Deductive & inductive reasoning - what are they? Expected utility theory - the normative theory of rational action The heuristics & biases research program - what is it? ♦ The availability heuristic – What is it? ♦ The representativeness heuristic – What is it? Psych 355, Miyamoto, Spr '16 7 Definition - Deductive Reasoning

8. Psych 355, Miyamoto, Spr '16 8 Deductive Reasoning Deductive reasoning is reasoning.... FROM:Premises that are assumed to be true TO:Conclusions that are certain to be true if the premises are true. Examples of deductive reasoning: ♦ Math problem solving ♦ Logic problems ♦ Some aspects of physics problem solving; and other natural science problem solving ♦ Four Card Problem Definition of Inductive Reasoning

9. Psych 355, Miyamoto, Spr '16 9 Inductive Reasoning Inductive reasoning is reasoning.... FROM:Evidence TO:Strength of belief with respect to one or more conclusions (judged likelihood that a possible conclusion is true) Examples of inductive reasoning: ♦ How likely is it that it will rain tomorrow in Seattle? ♦ How likely is it that the defendant in a criminal trial is guilty? ♦ What do the results of an experiment imply about a hypothesis that is tested in the experiment? ♦ Economic forecasts: How likely is a recession in Europe during 2015/2016? ♦ Based on what we know about American history and culture, what is likely to happen in the next national elections? Why Psychologists Are Interested in Inductive Reasoning

10. Psych 355, Miyamoto, Spr '16 10 Why Psychologists Are Interested in Inductive Reasoning Most real-world questions involve uncertainties. How do people make decisions when faced with risk and uncertainty? Rational decision model: Expected utility theory ♦ Bayesian decision theory ♦ Central assumption of economic theory & business decision making: Rational decision makers obey the Bayesian decision theory. ---------------------------------- Heuristics & biases research: Cognitive critique of the rational agent model. Modern behavioral economics General issue of how humans acquire knowledge from uncertain information. Psychology of Risk – What Are Basic Issues?

11. Psychology of Risk and Likelihood – What Are Basic Issues? How do people make decisions when faced with risk and uncertainty? ♦ Example: Deciding whether to buy a house. Deciding which house to buy among the available choices. ♦ Example: Deciding what medical treatment is best for a given patient (maybe yourself; maybe for someone else). How do people judge the likelihood of events? ♦ Example: How likely is it that North Korea will sell nuclear technology to other terrorists? ♦ Example: How likely is it that you will find a good job if you pursue a career in X, e.g., marketing? How do people judge how much they like or dislike particular possibilities? How do people predict their future preferences? Psych 355, Miyamoto, Spr '16 11 Basic Elements of a Rational Decision Model

12. All decisions can/should be represented as choices between gambles. Every possible action should be represented as a specific gamble. Mathematicians, economists and philosophers have identified rules of reasoning that govern how a rational agent would choose a best course of action (best gamble) from the available actions. -------------------------------------------------------- Psychological Issues that Arise in the Critique of Rational Decision Models (fix this) How do humans perceive risks? How do humans respond to risks? How do humans evaluate uncertainties? How do humans evaluate the relative strength of preference for different outcomes. Psych 355,, Miyamoto, Spr '16 12 Rational Decision Model & JDM

13. Rational decision model: Expected utility theory ♦ Bayesian decision theory ♦ Central assumption of economic theory & business decision making: Rational decision makers obey the Bayesian decision theory. ---------------------------------- Judgment & Decision Making (JDM) – a branch of cognitive psychology; generally critical of the rational decision model ♦ Human cognitive processes lead to counterproductive (suboptimal) judgments and decisions Heuristics & biases research: Cognitive critique of the rational agent model. ♦ Heuristics & biases research program is a major part of JDM research. Psych 355, Miyamoto, Spr '16 13 Definition - Heuristic Reasoning Strategies

14. Psych 355, Miyamoto, Spr '16 14 Heuristic Reasoning Strategies Heuristic reasoning strategies – reasoning strategies that are useful because they are easy and generally effective, even though they can sometimes lead to errors. Main Claims of the Heuristics & Biases Movement

15. Psych 355, Miyamoto, Spr '16 15 Main Claims of the Heuristics & Biases (H&B) Movement Human cognitive processes do not follow the pattern of a rational model. ♦ (Rational model = expected utility theory & Bayesian decision model) Human decision making uses heuristic strategies that are useful, but they can lead to systematic errors. Heuristic reasoning strategies.... ♦.... are often fast and effective, ♦.... place low demands on cognitive resources. ♦.... but they can lead to errors in particular situations. Behavioral economics – the application of cognitive psychology to the analysis of economic behavior. Heuristic Reasoning Strategies - Definition

16. Psych 355,, Miyamoto, Spr '16 16 Thursday, May 26, 2016 : The Lecture Ended Here

17. Psych 355, Miyamoto, Spr '16 17 Some Heuristics in Inductive Reasoning Availability Representativeness Anchoring & Adjustment Confirmation bias Focusing illusion Framing effects Mental accounting Only some of the more important heuristics are listed here. There are many more. Availability Heuristic