1. Rising to the challenge of adaptation Bill Gething Sustainability + Architecture University of the West of England Building a Resilient Future London February 2014

2. Twin Challenges Mitigation Reduce emissions Adaptation Design for a changing climate Exploit the overlap Avoid the conflicts

3. Hotter drier summers Wetter warmer winters Extreme events more likely Sea level rise Headlines

4. Design agenda: Regional variation + geographic specifics Low carbon imperative. Timing Scale Tactics: Context: Comfort and overheating Controlling heat gains Cooling strategies Construction Comfort Water

5. Comfort: a balancing act People Ventilation Conduction Equipment Balance point: May/ September Lighting Solar gain Active heating Winter Recent construction

6. Comfort: a balancing act Solar gain Lighting Equipment People Ventilation Conduction Active heating Ventilation Conduction Active heating Winter Balance point: March/ November New construction

7. Comfort: a balancing act Solar gain Lighting Equipment People Ventilation Conduction Active Cooling? Summer New construction Conduction Solar gain

8. Comfort: a balancing act Solar gain Lighting Equipment People Ventilation Conduction Minimise Consider Control Fabric storage + Climate change Summer New construction

9. Modelling as a design tool… not just for verification Gale and Snowden

10. Lots of climate information … but it needs “translation” …and there are gaps but probabilistic approach adds complexity … it needs “translation”

11. 2020s 2050s 2080s Summer mean daily maximum temperature (ºC) 32 30 28 26 24 22 20 Which Climate? CIBSE/ UKCIP ProCLiP charts Baseline (1961-90) Central estimate Likely 33% 67% Very Likely 10% 90% MediumLowHigh

12. Summer man daily maximum temperature (ºC) 2030s2050s2080s 32 30 28 26 24 22 20 Baseline (1961-90) Scenarios used (using Summer Mean Daily Max Temperature ProCliP format as base for a relative indicator) =Low 50%=Med 50% =High 50% Prometheus: CIBSE (2002 data):=Low=Med-High =Med Arup Morphed 2009 data):=High 90% =High 10 & 90% =Med 66% Manchester: Climates chosen by Design for Future Climate teams

13. 2030s2050s2080s 32 30 28 26 24 22 20 Summer man daily maximum temperature (ºC) Baseline (1961-90) Scenarios used (using Summer Mean Daily Max Temperature ProCliP format as base for a relative indicator) =Low 50%=Med 50% =High 50% Prometheus: CIBSE (2002 data):=Low=Med-High =Med Arup Morphed 2009 data):=High 90% =High 10 & 90% =Med 66% Manchester: Climates chosen by Design for Future Climate teams CONSENSUS? 2º London, Tokyo, New York threatened 4º Now

14. CIBSE TM48 (UKCIP02) 14 locations PROMETHEUS (UKCP09) Exeter43 locations CIBSE (UKCP09)14 locations COPSE (UKCP09) Manchester2 (+) locations Low Carbon Futures (UKCP09) Herriot Watt2 locations TranslationsWeather files for dynamic simulation CONSISTENT?

15. Gale and Snowdon Design your way out of the problem?

17. Triangle Architects

18. Performance in practiceDevil in the detail Windows – will they be opened? Before it’s too late… Noise Rain Security Dirt Pets/ children Blinds for privacy/ dim-out Ventilation systems – will they work/ keep working? Installation – rigid, insulated, big ducts Commissioning Noise Controls - intelligible and responsive Maintenance –screwdriver free

19. GapsRainfall intensity 1 Year 5 Years 50 Years 500 Years 2 min duration, l/sec/ m² ? 7%/ ºC rise –rough rule of thumb Prof Sir Brian Hoskins, Director, Grantham Institute for Climate Change, Imperial College

20. £ Costs and benefits:Pay-back, Self Interest and the Common Good Need it cost more? Who pays and who gets the benefit? Design costs? Construction costs? Can the market deliver on its own?

21. Trigger events? Daily Mail 23 Feb 2014 Impact – duration, magnitude, recovery, recurrence

22. http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20130221185318/http://www.innovateuk.org/ourstrategy/innovationplatforms/lowimpactbuilding/design-for-future-climate-report-.ashx Information sources

23. https://connect.innovateuk.org/web/design-for-future-climate/projects-outputs

24. The Sequel…. http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20130221185318/http://www.innovateuk.org/ourstrategy/innovationplatforms/lowimpactbuilding/design-for-future-climate-report-.ashx Information sources