1. ALASKA IN THE 21ST CENTURY: MORE DIVERSITY, MORE COMPLEXITY, MORE CHALLENGING Scott Goldsmith Institute of Social and Economic Research University of Alaska Anchorage Alaska Housing Finance Corporation Training Institute February 27, 2006 Anchorage, Alaska

2. Economic Trends to Watch More Service Jobs More Urban Lower Wage More Non-Wage Income Slowdown in Federal $ Future is Petroleum Alaska in the 21 st Century

6. Young Adults Median Earnings of High School Dropouts as a % of College Graduates Alaska in the 21 st Century

10. Groups of Interest: How Are They Doing? Alaska in the 21 st Century Workers Women Families Other Households Low Income Alaska Natives Other Minorities Children Young Adults Baby Boomers Seniors Cheechakos Sourdoughs Military

11. Demographic Trends to Watch We Are Older We Are More Urban-Suburban We Are More Racially Diverse We Continue to Move Around Alaska in the 21 st Century

12. Alaska Senior Rankings #50 Share of Population #2 Growth Rate in Seniors #1 Baby Boomer Share of Population Alaska in the 21 st Century

18. Median Income 2000: Senior Headed HH All US HH over 65$26,600 All Anchorage HH over 65$45,000 Anchorage Married Couples over 65$67,700 Anchorage Non-Family HH over 65$21,600 Alaska in the 21 st Century

19. Anchorage/Matsu Population Growth Alaska in the 21 st Century

20. Matsu Growth Driver: Commuters Alaska in the 21 st Century

21. Commuters to Anchorage Earn More Alaska in the 21 st Century

22. Selected Characteristics of the Region ANCH MATSU Extra Females 65+1,7066 White72%88% Owner Occupied60%79% College +29%18% “Born in the USA”90%96% In Labor Force74%66% Children<6, Parents Work61%53% Median HH Income (000$)$55.5$51.2 Families with Kids<5 in Poverty11%17% Alaska in the 21 st Century

23. Native Women Outnumber Men in Anchorage in 2000 Alaska in the 21 st Century

24. Native Household Composition: Urban vs Rural Alaska in the 21 st Century

25. Gross Migration: Who Came and Went 1995 to 2000? Overall 35% more left Race 52% more Whites left 60% more Asians arrived Income Movers had lower incomes Household Type 61% more Married Couples Left Education More folks in the “middle” left Age Baby boomers & their kids left Alaska in the 21 st Century

26. Families and Other Households Alaska in the 21 st Century

27. A Measure of Diversity Alaska in the 21 st Century

28. Recent Immigrants Are Different Alaska in the 21 st Century

29. Racial Composition of Anchorage Civilian Population Share Growth in 2000 from 1990 TOTAL 19% White 73.3% +4% Ak Native 10% ??? Asian 5.2%+27% Black 5.2%+20% Mixed 5% na Pacific Islander 1.3%415% Alaska in the 21 st Century

30. Age Distribution of Anchorage Population in 2000 <10 Boomer (36-54) White 15% 46% Asian 17%40% Black 19%37% Ak Native 25%31% Pacific Islander 27%26% Alaska in the 21 st Century

31. Share of Households with Children in 2000 White 39% All HH42% Asian 51% Black 53% Ak Native48% Pacific Islands 69% Alaska in the 21 st Century

32. Racial Diversity in the Schools Alaska in the 21 st Century

33. Median HH Income in 2000 White $61,800 All HH$57,000 Asian$47,000 Black $43,000 Pacific Islander$36,600 Ak Native$36,000 US Total$41,800 Alaska in the 21 st Century

34. Below Poverty Threshold in 2000 ($17,500 for Family of 4 ): Total Persons Children Total Persons Children White 4%5.8% All HH5%9.3% Asian10%21.3%* Black 11%13.8 Pacific Islander14%21.3%* Ak Native9%16.3% US Total12.4%16.6% Alaska in the 21 st Century

35. Who was in the Bottom 20% of HHs in 2000? Children being raised by single mothers51% People 65+24% Full Time Workers7% Adults with College Educations7% Residents by Race White 12% Asian19% Pacific Islander21% Ak Native27% Black29% Alaska in the 21 st Century

36. Take Away Message Diversity is Increasing—And it is concentrated among younger residents People are still coming to Alaska to look for opportunity—And finding it Economic opportunity means different things to different people Ak Natives remain the largest minority—With women finding more opportunities than men Non-wage income and high LFPR have offset declining wage rates—So household income remains high Our income distribution is more equitable than most places and the poverty rate lower—Thanks in part to the PFD Watch the Boomers—What they decide to do will impact us all We have matured to the point of having a suburb—And it looks different than we do Young adults today face a tougher job market than their parents Alaska in the 21 st Century

37. For additional information on this and other topics related to Alaska’s economy: www.alaskaneconomy.uaa.alaska.edu www.iser.uaa.alaska.edu ALASKA IN THE 21ST CENTURY: MORE DIVERSITY, MORE COMPLEXITY, MORE CHALLENGING