1. © Federal Statistical Office Germany Measuring Globalisation: Do we have the right numbers? Astana Economic Forum May 2012

2. © Federal Statistical Office Germany 22.06.2016 Folie 2 Globalization has led to a strong increase of international trade …. Data Source: WTO

3. © Federal Statistical Office Germany 22.06.2016 Folie 3 Expanding trade between Kazakhstan and Germany, German imports increased six-fold during the last decade ! Data source: Federal Statistical Office Germany

4. © Federal Statistical Office Germany 22.06.2016 Folie 4 AIRBUS FRANCE AIRBUS GERMANY AIRBUS UNITED KINGDOM AIRBUS ESPANA Rolls Royce or Engine Alliance Main aspect of globalization: the fragmentation of production processes Airbus A380

5. © Federal Statistical Office Germany 22.06.2016 Folie 5 Langon > Toulouse (Itinéraire Grand Gabarit) Broughton > Mostyn (River Dee) Pauillac > Langon (River Garonne) river transport road transport sea-transport air transport Different countries and means of transport involved… Each border crossing is registrated „gross“  Double counting!

6. © Federal Statistical Office Germany 22.06.2016 Folie 6 Measuring gross value and value added The iPhone-example USACHN OTHER GER KOR JPN $60.6 $22.96 $30.15 $48.04 Assembly: $6.50 Components $10.75 iPhone: $179.00 Source: United Nations Statistics Division Input from other countries

7. © Federal Statistical Office Germany 22.06.2016 Folie 7 Measuring gross value and value added The iPhone-example USA trade balance 2009 in iPhones with… (Mn. US-$) CHNJPNKORGEROTHERWORLD Gross value-1901.20000 Value added-73.4-684.8-259.4-340.7-542.9-1901.2 Source: United Nations Statistics Division  Trade balance between USA and China is changing dramatically if the calculation is based on trade in value added

8. © Federal Statistical Office Germany 22.06.2016 Folie 8 Characteristics of Globalization(1) International global value chains  Measurement of gross commodity flows may paint a distorted picture Global operating enterprise groups  increasing share of intra firm trade; How to get information? National exports/imports by foreign enterprises (7% of total export value and 9% of total import value in Germany is related to companies registered outside Germany!) Is it still possible to collect statistics within national boundaries?

9. © Federal Statistical Office Germany 22.06.2016 Folie 9 Characteristics of Globalization(2) Disappearance of customs borders Implementation of customs unions (e.g. European Union) Use of other data sources (direct data collection by survey) Simplification of customs formalities Examples: within the EU enterprises are free to lodge customs declarations anywhere („centralized clearing“):  country where the declaration is lodged can differ from the country of actual export/country of destination Simplified classification of goods allowed by customs Loss of information for statistical purposes!!

10. © Federal Statistical Office Germany 22.06.2016 Folie 10 Characteristics of Globalization(3) Growing importance of border crossing trade in services; trade of goods is more and more linked with services (installation, maintainance, instruction)  Rebalancing of statistics on trade in goods and statistics on trade in services? (Trade in goods statistics is available in a very detailed breakdown (at least by 5200 commoditiy codes according to the Harmonized System), while trade in services is just broken down by a very few categories)

11. © Federal Statistical Office Germany 22.06.2016 Folie 11 Global Forum on Trade Statistics Geneva, February 2011 o rganized by UNSD and Eurostat with the collaboration of WTO and UNCTAD Overarching question of the meeting: „Measuring Global trade – Do we have the right figures ?“ Download of all meeting documents and presentations: http://unstats.un.org/unsd/trade/s_geneva2011/geneva2011.htm

12. © Federal Statistical Office Germany 22.06.2016 Folie 12 Discussion Paper: International Trade Information Systems in 2020 A Vision for the Future prepared by UN, WTO, OECD and UNCTAD Starting point for a worldwide discussion

13. © Federal Statistical Office Germany 22.06.2016 Folie 13 Reaction of the EU on the „Vision paper“  Proposals for the modernisation of international trade statistics outlined in the so-called „Trade Package“

14. © Federal Statistical Office Germany 22.06.2016 Folie 14 Leading principles Balancing. Re-balance the information level between international trade in goods and international trade in services; extension of information on international trade in services; establish ITSS as a separate statistical domain (ITSS should not be seen solely as a component of Balance of Payment) Relevance. Increase relevance of international trade statistics. Collect information on intra group-trade and global value chains; international trade statistics by enterprise characteristics Integration. Integrate statistics on international trade in goods and international trade in services. Further integration of international trade statistics with business statistics on the basis of business registers Simplification. Reduce the administrative burden arising from Intra community statistics (Intrastat) The „Trade Package“

15. © Federal Statistical Office Germany 22.06.2016 Folie 15 Globalization indicators published on the website of the Federal Statistical Office of Germany: http://www.destatis.d e

16. © Federal Statistical Office Germany 22.06.2016 Folie 16 An example

17. © Federal Statistical Office Germany 22.06.2016 Folie 17 … and another one

18. © Federal Statistical Office Germany You are welcome! Dieter Sarreither Vice-President of the Federal Statistical Office Germany www.destatis.de