1.  Prepared by  The Center for Business and Economic Research  Lee Business School  University of Nevada, Las Vegas  May 30, 2012 1 Dr. Stephen M. Miller, Director Center for Business and Economic Research Lee Business School University of Nevada, Las Vegas February 4, 2016

2. 2 “640K ought to be enough for anybody.” Bill Gates, 1981

3. 3 “Everything that can be invented has been invented.” Charles H. Duell, Commissioner, U.S. Office of Patents, 1899

4. 4 “We don’t like their sound, and guitar music is on the way out.” Decca Records, 1962 Rejecting the Beatles

5. National Outlook 5

6. Overview  U.S. Economy Continues to Expand  Much subdued expansion  World Economic Growth Slows  China important player  Details of National Outlook  Forecasts 6

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10. Macroeconomic Policies  Fiscal Policy  Politics blocks action  Monetary Policy  Fed’s actions thwarted 10

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14. Global Growth  China’s Growth Slows  Important player at global level  Emerging Market Economies Also Slow  Linked to China  Asian Countries Lead the Pack  Japan in recession again  Developed Economies Also Slow 14

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19. Indicators of Economic Activity and Confidence  No Signal of Recession?  But, seventh year of expansion  Stock market movements indicate recession?  Other signals do not suggest recession 19

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24. Various Sectors Remain Strong  Employment Growth Relatively Strong  Need somewhat less than 100,000 jobs per month to stay even  Cannot continue the current pace much longer  Crude Oil Prices Remain Low  Housing Market a Bit Tight 24

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31. Nevada Outlook 31

32. Overview  New and Old Indices Track Nevada Economy  New coincident and leading indicators  Nevada Economy Continues to Expand  Subdued expansion  Employment Growth in Most Sectors  Forecasts 32

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42. Southern Nevada Outlook 42

43. Overview  New and Old Indices Track Southern Nevada Economy  New coincident and leading indicators  Southern Nevada Economy Continues to Expand  Subdued expansion  Employment Growth in Most Sectors  Results of CBER Quarterly Business Survey  Forecasts 43

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63. Risks to the Outlook  Changes in International Growth  China and emerging market economies  Monetary Policy  Schedule of interest rate changes  Terrorist Event 63

64. 64 Thank You

65. Knowledge within Reach http://cber.unlv.edu CBER 65