1. E. Bazile, C. Soci, F. Besson & ?? UERRA meeting Exeter, 25-27 March 2014 Surface Re-Analysis and Uncertainties for

2. UERRA meeting Exeter, 25-27 March 2014  Lessons from EURO4M  Observation  Downscaling  Surface analysis and UERRA domain  Uncertainties :  background  surface parameters  Deliverables OUTLINE

3. UERRA meeting Exeter, 25-27 March 2014 Correction of analysis due to the pre-processing of the precip observations (2007) MESCAN reanalysis (v1) Too dry Too much rain MESCAN reanalysis (v0)

4. UERRA meeting Exeter, 25-27 March 2014 Lessons from Euro4M 2007-2008 nb days with snow_depth > 5 cm 2008-2009 nb days with snow_depth > 5 cm 2009-2010 nb days with snow_depth > 5 cm RR24 analysis Winter 2009-2010 Suspicious features not detected in the RR24 analysis. The snow depth computed with SURFEX driven by MESCAN can reveal “suspicious data“ but the question is: which data is responsible ? Precipitation or temperature analysis or both ? From M. Coustau-Guilhou D2.11

5. UERRA meeting Exeter, 25-27 March 2014 Observation Network for Precipitation A merge of all database with a homogeneous and “clever” QC must be done before to start the 50 years re- analysis For high resolution re-analysis we expect to capture correctly the extreme precipitation event Observation available and useful for re-analysis for the 15th December 2009 from ECA&D.

6. UERRA meeting Exeter, 25-27 March 2014 #Work on observations was underestimated especially for the precipitation : merging several database organized in different ways is a difficult work and the quality control must be done carefully before running the 50 year re-analysis. #Additional data from partners will be very useful : #To improve the surface analysis #To better estimate the uncertainties due to the observation network #Downscaling is an issue especially over mountains, for the wind, the temperature and surface pressure Lessons from Euro4M

7. UERRA meeting Exeter, 25-27 March 2014 3D-Var Re-analysis at 22 km, 60 Levels over Europe (SMHI) 2D analysis at  x ~5.5 km Downscaling with GL (SMHI) More observations MESCAN over Europe: domain, downscaling …  x ~ 5.5 km over Europe 1080x1000 Within EURO4M the downscaling was “static” eg. the wind and temperature were not really adapted to the new orography

8. UERRA meeting Exeter, 25-27 March 2014 EURO4M : Surface assimilation and SURFEX off-line Background Hirlam file at 22km Background field at 5.5km Static Downscaling Surface analysis at 5.5km MESCAN + Obs SURFEX Off-line Every 6h T2m, Rh2m, RR SWd, LWd, Wind, Ps time Snow depth, soil moisture, evaporation, heat fluxes etc … Background Hirlam file at 22km Background field at 5.5km Static Downscaling Surface analysis at 5.5km MESCAN + Obs T2m, Rh2m, RR SWd, LWd, Wind, Ps

9. UERRA meeting Exeter, 25-27 March 2014 UERRA : Surface assimilation and SURFEX off-line HARMONIE analysis at 11km Analysis field at 5.5km Static Downscaling Background at 5.5km 6h-Forecast at 5.5km SURFEX Off-line time Snow depth, soil moisture, evaporation, heat fluxes etc … SURFEX variables from the previous fc SURFEX variables MESCAN + Obs Surface analysis at 5.5km T2m, Rh2m, RR SWd, LWd, Wind, Ps SURFEX variables for the next fc

10. UERRA meeting Exeter, 25-27 March 2014 UERRA Domain 1.UERRA domain should include the CORDEX domain 2.HARMONIE is the system used by SMHI for the 3Dvar re-analysis based on ARPEGE/IFS/ALADIN/ALARO/AROME software  MESCAN is a small part of this system  so less or simpler problem than in EURO4M (file format, variables, physics, observation database etc …) 3.HARMONIE and the 2D surface analysis domain should be the same and differ only by the resolution. 4.2D “dynamical” downscaling and surface analysis at 5.5km (1128*1070 ) (EURO4M domain 1080*1000)

11. UERRA meeting Exeter, 25-27 March 2014 CORDEX Domain

12. UERRA meeting Exeter, 25-27 March 2014 UERRA Domain

13. UERRA meeting Exeter, 25-27 March 2014 How to estimate the surface re-analysis uncertainties ?! HARMONIE analysis at 11km Analysis field at 5.5km Static Downscaling Background at 5.5km 6h-Forecast at 5.5km SURFEX Off-line time Snow depth, soil moisture, evaporation, heat fluxes etc … SURFEX variables from the previous fc SURFEX variables MESCAN + Obs Surface analysis at 5.5km T2m, Rh2m, RR SWd, LWd, Wind, Ps SURFEX variables for the next fc

14. UERRA meeting Exeter, 25-27 March 2014 How to estimate the surface re-analysis uncertainties ?! Ens HARMONIE analysis at 11km Analysis field at 5.5km Static Downscaling Background at 5.5km 6h-Forecast at 5.5km SURFEX Off-line time Snow depth, soil moisture, evaporation, heat fluxes etc … SURFEX variables from the previous fc SURFEX variables MESCAN + Obs Surface analysis at 5.5km T2m, Rh2m, RR SWd, LWd, Wind, Ps SURFEX variables for the next fc

15. UERRA meeting Exeter, 25-27 March 2014 How to estimate the surface re-analysis uncertainties ?! Ens HARMONIE analysis at 11km Analysis field at 5.5km Static Downscaling Background at 5.5km 6h-Forecast at 5.5km multi physics SURFEX Off-line time Snow depth, soil moisture, evaporation, heat fluxes etc … SURFEX variables from the previous fc SURFEX variables MESCAN + Obs Surface analysis at 5.5km T2m, Rh2m, RR SWd, LWd, Wind, Ps SURFEX variables for the next fc

16. UERRA meeting Exeter, 25-27 March 2014 How to estimate the surface re-analysis uncertainties ?! Ens HARMONIE analysis at 11km Analysis field at 5.5km Static Downscaling Background at 5.5km 6h-Forecast at 5.5km multi physics SURFEX Off-line time Snow depth, soil moisture, evaporation, heat fluxes etc … SURFEX variables from the previous fc SURFEX variables MESCAN + Obs Surface analysis at 5.5km T2m, Rh2m, RR SWd, LWd, Wind, Ps SURFEX variables for the next fc

17. UERRA meeting Exeter, 25-27 March 2014 How to estimate the surface re-analysis uncertainties ?! Ens HARMONIE analysis at 11km Analysis field at 5.5km Static Downscaling Background at 5.5km 6h-Forecast at 5.5km multi physics SURFEX Off-line time Snow depth, soil moisture, evaporation, heat fluxes etc … SURFEX variables from the previous fc SURFEX variables MESCAN + Obs Surface analysis at 5.5km T2m, Rh2m, RR SWd, LWd, Wind, Ps SURFEX variables for the next fc

18. UERRA meeting Exeter, 25-27 March 2014 How to estimate the surface re-analysis uncertainties ?! Ens HARMONIE analysis at 11km Analysis field at 5.5km Static Downscaling Background at 5.5km 6h-Forecast at 5.5km multi physics SURFEX Off-line time Snow depth, soil moisture, evaporation, heat fluxes etc … SURFEX variables from the previous fc SURFEX variables MESCAN + Obs Surface analysis at 5.5km T2m, Rh2m, RR SWd, LWd, Wind, Ps SURFEX variables for the next fc

19. UERRA meeting Exeter, 25-27 March 2014 How to estimate the surface re-analysis uncertainties ?! Ens HARMONIE analysis at 11km Analysis field at 5.5km Static Downscaling Background at 5.5km 6h-Forecast at 5.5km multi physics SURFEX Off-line time Snow depth, soil moisture, evaporation, heat fluxes etc … SURFEX variables from the previous fc SURFEX variables MESCAN + Obs Surface analysis at 5.5km T2m, Rh2m, RR SWd, LWd, Wind, Ps SURFEX variables for the next fc ECOCLIMAP database (Veg, d2, Alb, etc..)

20. UERRA meeting Exeter, 25-27 March 2014 Validation over the France of the Analyzed T2m at European scale MESCAN-EUROPE DEC2009 (HIRLAM GUESS) MESCAN-FRANCE DEC2009 (ALADIN GUESS) Diff. between MESCAN-EU and MESCAN-FR for the monthly T2m: Same observations, only the background is different  gives an idea where the uncertainties are ?

21. UERRA meeting Exeter, 25-27 March 2014 Deliverables #UERRA-MESC-EE : ensemble surface re-analysis 5 years M36 # Report on the ensemble re-analysis M30 #UERRA-MESC-EU : 1961  2010 (present) M45 #MESCAN-SURFEX-TRIP same period #Report on the evaluation of the MESCAN-SURFEX-TRIP

22. UERRA meeting Exeter, 25-27 March 2014 Conclusion Uncertainties at high resolution =? estimation of errors (without the reality) Uncertainties should be time and space dependent In regions with sparse observations uncertainties should more depend on the background than on the observation perturbation or analysis tuning.