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Estimating U.S. Wheat 2014/15 MYA Price 2014/15 Marketing Year for U.S. Wheat  June 2014 – May 2015 MYA Price 2014/15 = Weighted average of monthly U.S.

Published byDerick Marvin Little Modified over 8 years ago

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Presentation on theme: "Estimating U.S. Wheat 2014/15 MYA Price 2014/15 Marketing Year for U.S. Wheat  June 2014 – May 2015 MYA Price 2014/15 = Weighted average of monthly U.S."— Presentation transcript:

1 Estimating U.S. Wheat 2014/15 MYA Price 2014/15 Marketing Year for U.S. Wheat  June 2014 – May 2015 MYA Price 2014/15 = Weighted average of monthly U.S. wheat $’s for June 14 -May 15 *The monthly prices in black are NASS published prices, monthly prices in red are KSU estimates and all of the weights are KSU estimates. MonthPrice* % Price Weight* 2014/15 MYA Price June 2014$6.5013.0% July$6.1619.3% August$5.9813.3% September$5.749.1% October$5.716.3% November$6.054.9% $5.98 / bu December$6.116.6% January$6.147.6% February forecast $5.515.2% March forecast $5.506.0% April forecast $5.504.6% May 2015 forecast $5.544.1%

2 Wheat Price Comparison: ARC-CO vs PLC Calculating Reference Price$ for 2014 & 2015 versus PLC Reference Price$ (=$5.50) Calculating ARC-CO Reference Prices (vs PLC Minimum $) Marketing YearMYA PriceMin Price2014 ARC $2015 ARC $ 2009/10$4.87< $5.50$5.50 2010/11$5.70> $5.50$5.70 2011/12$7.24> $5.50$7.24 2012/13$7.77> $5.50$7.77 2013/14$6.87> $5.50$6.87 2014/15$5.98 ARC-CO Reference $$6.60$6.70 After 14% deductible $5.68$5.76 ̶ PLC Reference $ Less $5.50 ARC MYA$ ̶ PLC$ + $0.18+ $0.26

3 Estimating U.S. Corn 2014/15 MYA Price U.S. Corn Marketing Year for 2014/15  September 2014 – August 2015 MYA Price 2014/15 = Weighted average of monthly U.S. corn $’s for September 2014 -August 2015 *The monthly prices in black are NASS published prices, monthly prices in red are KSU estimates and all of the weights are KSU estimates. MonthPrice* % Price Weight* 2014/15 MYA Price September 2014$3.487.5% October$3.5613.0% November$3.5811.4% December$3.789.0% January$3.8114.1% February forecast $3.877.4% $3.81 / bu March forecast $3.958.2% April forecast $3.956.1% May forecast $4.035.2% June forecast $4.035.9% July forecast $4.106.4% August 2015 forecast $4.105.8%

4 Corn Price Comparison: ARC-CO vs PLC Calculating Reference Price$ for 2014 & 2015 versus PLC Reference Price$ (=$3.70) Calculating ARC-CO Reference Prices (vs PLC Minimum $) Marketing YearMYA PriceMin Price2014 ARC $2015 ARC $ 2009/10$3.55< $3.70$3.70 2010/11$5.18> $3.70$5.18 2011/12$6.22> $3.70$6.22 2012/13$6.89> $3.70$6.89 2013/14$4.46> $3.70$4.46 2014/15$3.81 ARC-CO Reference $$5.29 After 14% deductible $4.55 ̶ PLC Reference $ Less $3.70 ARC MYA$ ̶ PLC$ + $0.85

5 Estimating U.S. Sorghum 2014/15 MYA Price U.S. Sorghum Marketing Year for 2014/15  September 2014 – August 2015 MYA Price 2014/15 = Weighted avg. of monthly U.S. sorghum $’s for September 2014 -August 2015 *The monthly prices in black are NASS published prices, monthly prices in red are KSU estimates and all of the weights are KSU estimates. MonthPrice* % Price Weight* 2014/15 MYA Price September 2014$3.205.9% October$3.5012.4% November$3.7016.6% December$4.1013.3% January$4.1411.0% February forecast $3.845.1% $3.87 / bu March forecast $3.924.7% April forecast $3.923.6% May forecast $3.992.5% June forecast $3.994.4% July forecast $4.0610.4% August 2015 forecast $4.0610.1%

6 Sorghum Price Comparison: ARC-CO vs PLC Calculating Reference Price$ for 2014 & 2015 versus PLC Reference Price$ (=$3.95) Calculating ARC-CO Reference Prices (vs PLC Minimum $) Marketing YearMYA PriceMin Price2014 ARC $2015 ARC $ 2009/10$3.22< $3.95$3.95 2010/11$5.02> $3.95$5.02 2011/12$5.99> $3.95$5.99 2012/13$6.33> $3.95$6.33 2013/14$4.28> $3.95$4.28 2014/15$3.87 ARC-CO Reference $$5.10 After 14% deductible $4.38 ̶ PLC Reference $ Less $3.95 ARC MYA$ ̶ PLC$ + $0.43

7 Estimating U.S. Soybean 2014/15 MYA Price U.S. Soybean Marketing Year for 2014/15  September 2014 – August 2015 MYA Price 2014/15 = Weighted average of monthly U.S. soybean $’s for September 2014 -August 2015 *The monthly prices in black are NASS published prices, monthly prices in red are KSU estimates and all of the weights are KSU estimates. MonthPrice* % Price Weight* 2014/15 MYA Price September 2014$10.907.3% October$9.9724.8% November$10.2011.7% December$10.309.5% January$10.3015.8% February forecast $9.757.6% $10.09 / bu March forecast $9.795.9% April forecast $9.794.2% May forecast $9.843.3% June forecast $9.843.5% July forecast $9.833.6% August 2015 forecast $9.672.7%

8 Soybean Price Comparison: ARC-CO vs PLC Calculating Reference Price$ for 2014 & 2015 versus PLC Reference Price$ (=$8.40) Calculating ARC-CO Reference Prices (vs PLC Minimum $) Marketing YearMYA PriceMin Price2014 ARC $2015 ARC $ 2009/10$9.59> $8.40$9.59 2010/11$11.30> $8.40$11.30 2011/12$12.50> $8.40$12.50 2012/13$14.40> $8.40$14.40 2013/14$13.00> $8.40$13.00 2014/15$10.09 ARC-CO Reference $$12.27 After 14% deductible $10.55 ̶ PLC Reference $ Less $8.40 ARC MYA$ ̶ PLC$ + $2.15

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