1. CariCOF Probabilistic Rainfall Outlook February-March-April 2015 and May-June-July 2015 CIMH Coordination – Dr. Cédric J. Van Meerbeeck NMHS’s acknowledged for rainfall data delivery and participation in modelling efforts! Antigua & Barbuda, Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Cayman Islands, Cuba, Curaçao, Dominica, Dominican Republic, French Guiana, Grenada, Guadeloupe, Guyana, Jamaica, Martinique, Puerto Rico, St. Barth’s, St. Lucia, St. Maarten/St. Martin, St. Vincent & the Grenadines, Suriname, Trinidad & Tobago and the US Virgin Islands

2. FMA rainfall

3. CPT probabilistic FMA rainfall forecast CCA experiments: 1) Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over October (data source: NOAA ERSSTv3b, obtained from the IRI data library) 2) Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over October 3) Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over DJF (data source: NOAA CPC CFSv2, October initialisation) 4) Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic 5) Predictor is predicted rainfall totals over the Caribbean (data source: ECHAM4.5 ensemble24, obtained from the IRI data library) Besides the major control of ENSO (here represented by Pacific tropical SST anomalies) and tropical north Atlantic SSTs on Caribbean rainfall variability, these experiments take the contrast between Pacific and Caribbean/trop. N Atlantic SSTs into account, as those factors are regarded as the most important drivers of rainfall throughout the Caribbean.

4. Experiment 1

5. CPT rainfall forecast Data: Predictor = January SST observations 1982-2015 140E-20W and 30N-20S (i.e. Tropical Pacific & Atlantic) [Source: ERSSTv3b, from IRI data library] Predictand = FMA rainfall for 474 Caribbean stations 1982-2014 Parameters: CCA modes: max = 5; optimum = 2 X modes: max = 8; optimum = 7 Y modes: max = 8; optimum = 3 Missing Y data threshold: 20% missing values, 10% missing stations, leading to 426 stations included in hindcast and forecast Goodness index (transformed Y) = !!0.084 Very Limited!!

6. ROC area maps

7. CCA modes

8. Experiment 1 FMA Rainfall Forecast Tercile maps NORMAL BELOW ABOVE

10. Experiment 2

11. CPT rainfall forecast Data: Predictor = January SST observations 1982-2014 90-20W and 0-30N (i.e. tropical N Atl.) [Source: ERSSTv3b, from IRI data library] Predictand = FMA rainfall for 474 Caribbean stations 1982-2014 Parameters: CCA modes: max = 5; optimum = 4 X modes: max = 8; optimum = 4 Y modes: max = 8; optimum = 7 Missing Y data threshold: 20% missing values, 10% missing stations, leading to 426 stations included in hindcast and forecast Goodness index (transformed Y) = !!0.077 Very Limited!!

12. ROC area maps

13. CCA modes

14. Experiment 2 FMA Rainfall Forecast Tercile maps NORMAL BELOW ABOVE

16. Experiment 3

17. CPT rainfall forecast Data: Predictor = FMA simulated SST 1982-2014 140E-20W and 30N-20S (i.e. tropical Pacific & Atlantic) [Source: NOAA CPC – CFSv2, November initialisation] Predictand = FMA rainfall for 474 Caribbean stations 1983-2013 Parameters: CCA modes: max = 5; optimum = 1 X modes: max = 8; optimum = 5 Y modes: max = 8; optimum = 3 Missing Y data threshold: 20% missing values, 10% missing stations, leading to 184 stations included in hindcast and forecast Goodness index (transformed Y) = !!0.051 Very Limited!!

18. ROC area maps

19. CCA modes

20. Experiment 3 FMA Rainfall Forecast Tercile maps BELOW ABOVE NORMAL

22. Experiment 4

23. CPT rainfall forecast Data: Predictor = FMa simulated SST 90-20W and 0-30N (i.e. tropical N Atl.) [Source: NOAA CPC – CFSv2, November initialisation] Predictand = FMA rainfall for 474 Caribbean stations 1983-2013 Parameters: CCA modes: max = 5; optimum = 1 X modes: max = 8; optimum = 3 Y modes: max = 8; optimum = 2 Missing Y data threshold: 20% missing values, 10% missing stations, leading to 426 stations included in hindcast and forecast Goodness index (transformed Y) = !!0.038 Very Limited!!

24. ROC area maps

25. CCA modes

26. Experiment 4 FMA Rainfall Forecast Tercile maps NORMAL BELOW ABOVE

28. Experiment 5

29. CPT rainfall forecast Data: Predictor = JFM simulated rainfall 100-40W and 5S-35N (i.e. broader Caribbean) [Source: ECHAM4.5 ensemble 24 – from IRI data library] Predictand = JFM rainfall for 474 Caribbean stations 1979-2013 Parameters: CCA modes: max = 5; optimum = 1 X modes: max = 5; optimum = 3 Y modes: max = 5; optimum = 2 Missing Y data threshold: 20% missing values, 10% missing stations, leading to 430 stations included in hindcast and forecast Goodness index (transformed Y) = !!0.058 Limited!!

30. ROC area maps

31. CCA modes

32. Experiment 5 FMA Rainfall Forecast Tercile maps NORMAL BELOW ABOVE