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Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University What is Driving Food Prices? Corinne Alexander Purdue University August 16,

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Presentation on theme: "Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University What is Driving Food Prices? Corinne Alexander Purdue University August 16,"— Presentation transcript:

1 Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University What is Driving Food Prices? Corinne Alexander cealexan@purdue.edu Purdue University August 16, 2013 cealexan@purdue.edu

2 Weather Often Impacts Individual Items 2011 drought in GeorgiaPeanut Butter up 40% 2011 flooding in North DakotaPasta up 10% 2011 issues in Columbia Coffee up 35 to 40% and Brazil 2009 too wet in Illinois Canned Pumpkin availability Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University

3 Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University

4 Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University Changes in Food Price Indexes Item RelativeForecast imp.2008200920102011 2012 2013 2014 Consumer Price IndexesPercentPercent change All food100.0 5.51.80.83.72.6 1.5 to 2.5 2.5 to 3.5 Food away from home39.6 4.43.51.31.92.8 2.0 to 3.0 2.5 to 3.5 Food at home60.4 6.40.50.34.82.5 1.5 to 2.5 2.5 to 3.5 Meats, poultry, and fish12.9 4.20.51.97.43.6 1.5 to 2.5 2.5 to 3.5 Meats8.4 3.5-0.62.88.83.4 1.0 to 2.0 2.5 to 3.5 Beef and Veal3.8 4.52.910.26.4 2.0 to 3.0 2.5 to 3.5 Pork2.6 2.3-2.04.78.50.3 0.0 to 1.0 2.0 to 3.0 Other meats1.9 3.12.3-0.16.41.7 2.0 to 3.0 Poultry2.3 51.7-0.12.95.5 3.0 to 4.0 Fish and seafood2.2 63.61.17.12.4 2.0 to 3.0 2.5 to 3.5 Eggs0.8 14-14.71.59.23.2 2.5 to 3.5 2.0 to 3.0 Dairy products6.4 8-6.41.16.82.1 2.0 to 3.0 2.5 to 3.5 Fats and oils1.8 13.82.3-0.39.36.1 1.0 to 2.0 1.5 to 2.5

5 Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University Changes in Food Price Indexes Item Relativ e Forecast imp.2008200920102011 2012 20132014 Consumer Price Indexes Percen tPercent change Fruits and vegetables9.06.2-2.10.24.1 -0.6 2.0 to 3.02.5 to 3.5 Fresh fruits & vegetables6.95.2-4.60.64.5 -2.0 2.5 to 3.5 Fresh fruits3.54.8-6.1-0.63.3 1.0 2.0 to 3.02.5 to 3.5 Fresh vegetables3.35.6-3.42.05.6 -5.1 2.5 to 3.52.0 to 3.0 Processed fruits & vegetables2.19.56.6-1.32.9 3.8 1.0 to 2.02.5 to 3.5 Sugar and sweets2.15.55.62.23.3 0.0 to 1.02.0 to 3.0 Cereals and bakery products8.710.23.2-0.83.9 2.8 1.5 to 2.52.0 to 3.0 Nonalcoholic beverages6.74.31.9-0.93.2 1.1 0.0 to 1.02.5 to 3.5 Other foods11.95.23.7-0.52.3 3.5 1.5 to 2.52.0 to 3.0 Source: USDA Economic Research Service http://ers.usda.gov/data-products/food-price-outlook.aspx

6 Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University

7 Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University

8 2014 US Food Price Inflation ERS predicts (July 25, 2013) 1.5 to 2.5% for 2013 2.5 to 3.5% for 2014 For 2013, year-to-date is about 1.5% Expect 2014 to have low/normal food price inflation Retailers can rebuild profit margins Big drivers are: Recovery in livestock sector Consumer incomes Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University

9 Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University

10 Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University

11 Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University

12 Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University Food at home 2011: $654.4 Billion Food away 2011: $588.9 Billion

13 Questions?

14 Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University http://www.ers.usda.gov/Publications/ERR114/ERR114.pdf

15 Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University http://ers.usda.gov/data-products/food-dollar-series/food-dollar-application.aspx

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