1. Vanuatu Meteorology & Geo-hazards Department Protecting Lives and Property VMGD TC Pam and El NINO Communications Timeline 1 Vanuatu Meteorology and Geo Hazards Department, MCCAMGEED Philip Malsale Manager, Climate Services Division

2. Vanuatu Meteorology & Geo-hazards Department Protecting Lives and Property Tropical Cyclone Pam  Media release on TC seasonal outlook on 17 th October 2014 2

3. Vanuatu Meteorology & Geo-hazards Department Protecting Lives and Property Tropical cyclone (TC) 2014-15 forecast  Methodology  Analog methodology  Use Regional Outlook from BOM and NIWA  Downscale to Vanuatu using the TC portal  Use CEI - and ENSO index that combines both SST and SOI (predictors) for TC prediction 3

4. Vanuatu Meteorology & Geo-hazards Department Protecting Lives and Property Tropical cyclone (TC) 2014-15 forecast  Methodology  So all May- September (CEI 5-month mean) conditions were examined  neutral ENSO conditions or a weak El Nino are most likely for 2014-15 TC season.  TC forecast was narrow to include only past ENSO neutral cyclone seasons and seasons typified by weak El Niño conditions  Similar seasons used 4

5. Vanuatu Meteorology & Geo-hazards Department Protecting Lives and Property Tropical cyclone (TC) 2014-15 forecast  Regional Analysis:  30 years (1980 -2010) average number of named TCs is 12.4 in Southwest Pacific region  8-12 name TCs are expected for this season (2014-15)  Vanuatu and New Caledonia expect to be below normal  Elevated activities for other countries; Samoa, Tuvalu, Tokelau, Niue, and the Southern Cook Islands 5

6. Vanuatu Meteorology & Geo-hazards Department Protecting Lives and Property Tropical cyclone (TC) 2014-15 forecast  Regional Analysis:  Season long forecast reflects a reduction in activities during the early season (November - January) while net increase activity in general during the late season (February - April)  2 or more cyclones can interact with Vanuatu  At least one or more severe TCs (Category 3 or higher) could occur anywhere across the Southwest Pacific during the season. 6

7. Vanuatu Meteorology & Geo-hazards Department Protecting Lives and Property Tropical cyclone (TC) 2014-15 forecast  Vanuatu analysis: 8 analog yrs  Six Analog years include (1978/79; 1979/80; 1980/81; 1990/91; 2001/02; 2012/13) typified by ENSO neutral conditions and two analog seasons (1986/87 and 2009/10) that were weak El Niños were identified using the approach above.  UMA is in the analog years 7

8. Vanuatu Meteorology & Geo-hazards Department Protecting Lives and Property Tropical cyclone (TC) 2014-15 forecast  Vanuatu Analysis: 8 analog yrs  Eight analog years with 0- 5 cyclones  During these seasons total of 12 TCs occurred  Average of 1.5 events which is around 2 cyclone events  It must also noted that we can experience up 5 TCs this season -HISTORY  Vanuatu should expects at least 2 TCs  Noted that it can reach 5 cyclones 8

9. Vanuatu Meteorology & Geo-hazards Department Protecting Lives and Property Tropical cyclone (TC) 2014-15 forecast  Summary  Southwest Pacific region  8-12 TCS  Vanuatu  2 TCs  at least one or more severe tropical cyclone (category 3 or higher) to occur anywhere across the southwest Pacific during the season.  Cyclone Uma occurred during 1986-87 analog years used in this analysis  We must remain vigilant at all times.  Noted- the forecast is based on SST and SOI forecast to exist until end of 2013-14 TC session. So if any changes to ENSO state, this will affect TC event in region and Vanuatu.  Research shows NEUTRAL conditions can help cyclone category one wander or stall causing prolong or widespread effect 9

10. Vanuatu Meteorology & Geo-hazards Department Protecting Lives and Property 2015/16 El Nino 10

11. Vanuatu Meteorology & Geo-hazards Department Protecting Lives and Property Timeline of Climate Division communications during 2015/2016 El Niño 11 25 th April 2014 Media Release and newspaper article 25 th April 2015 El Niño briefing 15 th May 2015 Second newspaper article May 2015 El Niño Social Media Campaign May 2015 First series of TV/Radio appearances 20 th May 2015 El Niño briefing for Food Security Cluster 21 st May 2015 Media release generated and distributed to all Regional Headquarters for noticeboard display 26 th May 2015 VMGD, NDMO, Agriculture, Hydrology Talkback show 29 th May 2015 Provincial stakeholders (video conference) and national stakeholders briefing

12. Vanuatu Meteorology & Geo-hazards Department Protecting Lives and Property 12 2 nd June 2015 First whole of country SMS sent (TVL/Digicel) June Provincial El Niño Briefings continue 22 nd June Talkback show with NDMO 6 th August Cluster briefing 21 st August Media release and front page news 26 th August Education sector briefing 31 st August Radio interview – Radio NZ 1 st September Radio interview – ABC Pacific Beat 1 st September Australian High Commission Briefing 16 th September NDMO El Niño scenario- building exercise September El Niño information appears alongside daily weather in newspaper

13. Vanuatu Meteorology & Geo-hazards Department Protecting Lives and Property 13 23 rd September Donor and cluster briefing and briefing for all Ministry DGs 29 th September Second whole country SMS 29 th September Health Sector briefing at MoH 19 th October First Monthly Climate Briefing 21 st October Public Information Session - Museum 23 rd October Presentation to French, Australian and New Zealand High Commissioners November TAFEA Klaod Nasara Train the Trainer Workshop 27 th November Inter-cluster meeting presentation 11 th December Inter-cluster meeting presentation 14 th January Monthly Climate Briefing

14. Vanuatu Meteorology & Geo-hazards Department Protecting Lives and Property 14 18 th February Monthly Climate Briefing including Weather Forecasting and Services Division 18 th February Talk-back radio appearance 14 – 18 March NCOF and Monthly Climate Briefing -Vanuatu Climate Summary released and distributed every month -3 month rainfall outlook developed and hosted on the website every month -A number of one-off presentations given to various other stakeholder groups including churches, Provincial Councils, schools -VMGD has also hosted a number of visiting groups for one off information sessions -Since the beginning of 2016 the Division has focused on providing the monthly briefing to allow for concentration on monitoring and forecasting (easing of El Niño)