1. PACS 2500 Introduction to Peace and Conflict Studies Guy Burgess Co-Director Conflict Information Consortium, University of Colorado UCB 580, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309-0580, (303) 492-1635 burgess@colorado.edu burgess@colorado.edu Copyright © 2014 Guy Burgess and Heidi Burgess

2. Upcoming Due Dates

3. Airliner Carbon Footprint http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/every- time-you-fly-you-trash-the-planet-and- theres-no-easy-fix/?ex_cid=538fb Round trip driving distance ~3600 miles http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/every-time-you-fly-you-trash- the-planet-and-theres-no-easy-fix

4. Free Expression Cultural Differences http://www.pewglobal.org/2015/11/18/global-support-for-principle-of- free-expression-but-opposition-to-some-forms-of-speech/

5. Immigration Stats Since 2008, more immigrants have come from Asia than Latin America, and the disparity is growing. There are more Mexicans leaving the United States than coming in. Roughly 1.6 percent of immigrant males between ages 18 and 39 wind up incarcerated, compared with 3.3 percent of native-born American men The bulk of the evidence shows that immigrants have a hugely positive effect on total American G.D.P. while having little effect on overall wages. http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/19/opinion/a-little- reality-on-immigration.html

6. Peace Feeler? https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/charles-koch-this-is-the-one-issue-where-bernie-sanders-is- right/2016/02/18/cdd2c228-d5c1-11e5-be55-2cc3c1e4b76b_story.html?hpid=hp_no-name_opinion-card- e%3Ahomepage%2Fstory

7. Core & Overlay

8. Overlay Problems: Escalation Escalation Relationship Communication Collaboration Core

9. Escalation Thresholds Copyright 2003 © by Guy and Heidi Burgess

10. Pre-Polarization Conflicts

11. Polarizing Conflicts

12. Polarized Identity Conflicts

13. Polarized Identity Groups Republicans / Democrats Hutus / Tutsis Protestants / Catholics Shia / Sunni Palestinians / Israelis

14. Escalation Conflict Intensification Beginnings Out-Group Identity Worst Case Bias Victim Bias Grievances Enmity Reinforcement Self-Fulfilling Prophecy Recreational Complaint Tactical Choices Invincibility Illusion Tactical Escalation / Response Coalition Building/Polarization Rachets Sacrifice Trap Shame Trap Personalization Breakover Interpersonal Attack Unthinking Anger Violence Breakover Vengeance Self-Defense Feedback Loops

15. De-Escalation Strategies Portray Conflict Process as the Source of Evil and All Sides as Victim (e.g. Hiroshima) “Mistakes Were Made” Amnesty (?War Criminal Problem?) Initiate Cooling-off Periods Give Losers a Future They Can Live With (World War I vs. II Settlement) Trust Earning / Confidence Building (GRIT) Recognition that Escalation Strengthens Enemies as well as Friends No Response or Minimal Response to Provocation

16. De-Escalation Strategies Disarming Behavior to Break Stereotypes (Sadat) Pursue Cooperative Activities between Enemies Replace Negotiators Correct Other Overlay Problems Limit Misunderstandings Clarify Facts Pursue Fair Process Create Islands of Un-escalated Discourse Accurate Cost of Conflict Accounting

17. Overlay Problems: Relationships Escalation Relationships Communication Collaboration Core

18. Compassion http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DCG4qryy1Dg

19. Charter of Compassion http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wktlwCPDd94 How do you promote the idea of compassion?

20. Passive vs. Active Compassion  Passive compassion  Do not actively act in ways that hurt others  Indirect harm  Active compassion  Active try to help others

21. Compassion  Principled compassion: “That which is hurtful to you, do not do to others.”  Empathy, benevolence  Pragmatic compassion: “Don’t make people any madder at you, then you absolutely have to.”  Mirror building – “looking at yourself as others see you”

22. Compassion Gap http://mobile.nytimes.com/2014/03/02/opinion/sunday/kristof-the-compassion-gap.html

23. Mirror-Building

24. Mirror Building?  Have It All vs. Everyone -- Distributional  Have More vs. Have Less & Have Not -- Distributional  Have Less vs. Have Not -- Distributional  Liberal vs. Conservative -- Cultural

25. Disrespect and Humiliation http://www.humiliationstudies.org/

26. Tolerance / Coexistence

27. Tolerance http://www.theatlantic.com/politi cs/archive/2014/03/lots-of- people-who-support-gay- marriage-think-gay-sex-is- immoral/284171/

28. Beyond Tolerance

29. Compassion  What is hurtful to you…  Disrespect?  Betrayal?  What causes you to be hurtful to others…  Lack of empathy?  Anger?  Out group stereotypes?  Dehumanization?

30. The Unrightable Wrongs Problem

31. The Meeting Place Justice Punish those that committed “unrightable”, “unspeakable” wrongs Truth Acknowledge the guilt, build a common history Peace Stop the fighting and killing (even if it means letting people “get away with it”) Mercy Stop the hate with forgiveness Lederach Trade-Offs

32. Possible Applications: Syria http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/battle-for-syria/ Regime Responds 0-7:16

33. Other Possible Applications

34. Columbia Peace Talks http://www.usip.org/publi cations/2015/09/24/qa- colombia-breakthrough- world-model-peace-talks

35. The Meeting Place Justice Punish those that committed “unrightable”, “unspeakable” wrongs Truth Acknowledge the guilt, build a common history Peace Stop the fighting and killing (even if it means letting people “get away with it”) Mercy Stop the hate with forgiveness Lederach Trade-Offs

36. Visioning Justice Punish those that committed “unrightable”, “unspeakable” wrongs Truth Acknowledge the guilt, build a common history Peace Stop the fighting and killing (even if it means letting people “get away with it”) Mercy Stop the hate with forgiveness Future Vision Imagining a positive future vision and a fair relationship Elise Boulding

37. Overlay Problems: Communication Escalation Relationships Communication Collaboration Core

38. Misunderstandings Social Interpersonal

39. The Iron Law of Stereotypes Bandwidth Limit Information transfer capacity We can't know everything about everyone We have to generalize The key is to distinguish Inaccurate stereotypes Accurate stereotypes

40. Stereotypes Identify examples of inaccurate and damaging stereotypes Generalizing extremists Identify examples of accurate and helpful stereotypes New York, Washington, Boulder story

41. Combating Enemy Images The problem:  We tend to view others through the lens of stereotypes, focusing only on the faults of our enemies, and the positive characteristics of our friends. Options for making things better:  Dialogue, appreciative listening, active listening, narratives, people-to- people programs, etc.

42. Listening Skills Promoting understanding not immediate resolution Active listening Not “Rebuttal Listening” Not merely waiting your turn to talk Appreciative inquiry Dialog Story Telling Common Ground

43. Cognitive Dissonance / Confirmation Bias People discount information that challenges their world view Minds are like parachutes, they function best when they're open. The QED Syndrome Quod erat demonstrandum Thus it is proven What possible errors in your worldview won't you consider?

44. I Messages Communicate problems without escalating conflict Statement about yourself Begin with “I…” Usually focus on a feeling State a problem without blame You Messages Communicate problems but may escalate conflict Statement about the Other Begin with “You…” Usually focus on an act Often blame the Other for the problem “I” vs. “You” Messages

45. I Message Examples I came home to try to get some studying done and found the place to messy to work in. Was it my turn or your turn to clean things? You Messages Examples You are a slob. You left the place a bloody mess again. I can’t study and it’s your fault! "I" vs. "You" Messages

46. Political Communication http://www.trumanproject.org/ Trying to play hard ball” politics and do the right thing (from their perspective)

47. Words, Voice, Visuals? Words Voice Visuals Source: Truman National Security Project

48. Projecting Strength Stand up straight Extend your arms way over your head Lower them but maintain your head and shoulder position Cultivate a military, “at ease” position (standing at attention is too stiff) Pretend you’re holding a ball (golf ball to giant pilates ball) Palms up (palms forward indicates submission) Source: Truman National Security Project

49. Projecting Strength Stand up straight Extend your arms way over your head Lower them but maintain your head and shoulder position Cultivate a military, “at ease” position (standing at attention is too stiff) Pretend you’re holding a ball (golf ball to giant pilates ball) Palms up (palms forward indicates submission) Source: Truman National Security Project

50. Projecting Warmth Focus on the smile Must be genuine Only good actors / actresses can fake it Exploits mirror neurons 70% of congressional winners can be predicted by visuals Can’t be a submissive smile Raised eyebrows Eyes must be “steely” Source: Truman National Security Project

51. Wesley Clarke

52. Tricks: Misdirection Ploy David Copperfield

53. Tricks: “Hobbes,” “Who Me?” Ploy Innuendo – “He’s not a Muslim, as far as I know” Surrogates Anonymous accusers – “People say …” Free lancers

54. Tricks: “Everybody Does It” Ploy Devise and implement a Machiavellian plan. Implement it in a big way. Find some way to accuse the other side doing something similar (even though it may be minor) Invoke the “can’t play hardball” defense Last minute variation: Act when the opponent has no time to respond (like just before the election)

55. Communication Matrix What do we say about them? What do we say about ourselves? What do they say about themselves? What do they they about us? Source: Truman National Security Project

56. Overlay Problems: Communication, Facts Escalation Relationships Communication Facts Collaboration Core

57. Trustworthy Facts  To be useful factual information must be: Worthy of trust Trusted Understood Sensibly acted upon How do you achieve this? The economy? Security? Climate change?

58. Risk vs. Uncertainty Risk Known possible outcomes Known costs associated with those outcomes Known probability of those outcomes Insurance possible Uncertainty Known and unknown possible outcomes Known and unknown costs associated with those outcomes Known and unknown probability of those outcomes Insurance not possible Hunch gambling possible

59. Avoiding the Ostrich Trap Predicting the Future?.8 x.8 x.8 x.8 =.4 Charles Linbloom "The next change" Requires continual monitoring and reassessment

60. Can’t Be Too Safe Rachet Also Risky Shift

61. Hierarchy of Wastebaskets

62. FactCheck.org

64. Recycling http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/04/opinion/sunday/the-reign-of-recycling.html

65. Probablility http://mathwithbad drawings.com/201 5/09/23/what- does-probability- mean-in-your- profession/

66. Probability

68. Communication Matrix What do we say about them? What do we say about ourselves? What do they say about themselves? What do they they about us? Source: Truman National Security Project