1. ulster.ac.uk NI Skills Barometer Curriculum Development Symposium Gareth Hetherington 27 April 2016

2. Agenda  Background to the NI Skills Barometer  Overview of approach  Demand for skills  Supply/ demand (im)balance  Personal benefits to education  Policy comments

3. ulster.ac.uk Background to the NI Skills Barometer

4.  DEL sponsored 3 year project  Broad number of stakeholder groups/ users including: −young people, parents and careers advisors −employers −education institutions −DEL, DE  Economy wide and across a broad range of skills/ qualifications

5. ulster.ac.uk Overview of Approach

6. Quantitative analysis Demand side indicators Demand for jobs (by industry and occupation) Expansion demand Replacement demand Demand for skills Current and Projected skills mix HE and FE skills (by subject area and NQF level) Supply side indicators Supply of people Demographics (by industry and occupation) Immigration Supply of HE and FE skills (by subject area and NQF level) Attainment Supply/ Demand (im)balance Identify the annual average supply gap by HE (JACS) and FE (SSA) by NQF Level Identify demand and supply factors Plan for high growth

7. Sectoral insight also essential  Consulting with a wide range of sector/ industry organisations  Quantitative AND qualitative input is critical:  to review and enhance our quantitative analysis  provide sector insight

8. ulster.ac.uk Demand for skills

9. Employment projections by sector Total employment change by 1 digit SIC (2015-25) Source: UUEPC

10. Overview of demand Total employment 831,000 (2015) 918,400 (2025) Annual average Gross demand 85,200 (2015-25) Filled from within the existing labour market 55,900 (2015-25) Net requirement from education & migration 29,300 (2015-25) Replacement demand 20,200 Expansion demand 9,100 Focus of the Skills Barometer 10

11. Annual average net requirement from education and migration (2015-25) Current forecast: 16% 2009 forecast: 22% Demand by skills level Total = 29,300 p.a. 28% job opportunities require NQF L6+

12. Sectoral demand (net requirement) by skills level Which sectors recruit high (L6+) and medium skilled (L4-5) people? Source: EPC 12

13. Sectoral demand (net requirement) by skills level Which sectors recruit medium to lower skilled (L3 and below) people? Source: EPC 13

14. ulster.ac.uk Supply/ Demand (im)balance

15. Supply Gap – NQF Level Annual average labour market supply gap (NQF L1 to L8)

16. NQF level 6+ Supply Gap – Broad subject area Annual Average Supply Gap NQF L6+ (JACS 1 digit) Under-supply Over-supply Source: HESA, EPC STEM mainly Public Sector 16

17. Annual Average Supply Gap NQF L4-5 (SSAs 1 digit) Under-supply Over-supply Source: HESA, EPC NQF L4-5 Supply Gap – Broad subject area 17

18. ulster.ac.uk Personal benefits to education

19. Average earnings by level of education Source: ONS  2012/13 is the latest data available from ONS in respect of salary progression. ONS currently have no plans to update this data release. 19

20. Employment prospects by level of education Source: LFS First degree graduate 2+ A-Levels 5+ GCSE’s A*-C 20

21. Work readiness of education leavers 21 Source: DE, EPC

22. ulster.ac.uk Policy comments

23. Policy Comments  There is a need to over-supply  Employers indicate that not all qualifiers have the skills required to work at level equivalent to the qualification achieved.  How do we deal with this issue?  Potentially linked to the need for employability skills  Strong need for employability skills such as: team working; good communication; people management; problem solving and critical/ objective thinking, initiative, commercial acumen.  Education institutions must integrate the development of these skills into course delivery.  Students must get appropriate exposure to meaningful work experience, typically through placement and/ or internship.  Balancing the responsibility of the education institution and the responsibility of the employer.

24. Policy Comments  Professional & Technical v Academic  The image of P&T qualifications must be considered the equal of academic qualifications, if all young people are to match their career choices with their abilities.  Advice to potential students  young people should study in an area for which they have a passion. If oversupplied subject area then need to excel (e.g. in general a 2:2 in Engineering is likely to be more sought after than a 2:2 in Social Studies)  experience a range of sectors/ occupations prior to making career decisions – provide young people with access to a range of work experience opportunities prior to them making decisions about tertiary level career paths.

25. Policy Comments  Sector attractiveness  Some sectors need to work harder to make their industry attractive to potential recruits.  Setting appropriate funding incentives to education institutions  If Government want to encourage improved outcomes (e.g. higher employment outcomes), then the funding regime should incentivise and reward those outcomes.  Policy response to areas of oversupply – avoid an initial (knee- jerk) response to simply reduce provision (and this may be necessary), but alternatives exist:  Selling NI as a FDI location to industries requiring those skills  Education institutions could sell over-supplied courses to international students  Conversion courses.

26. ulster.ac.uk Thank you