1. Futures Wheel the joshellis@ubahouston.o rg @jjellis

2. Evaluate what is possible before deciding what is preferable Futures Wheel the

3. Environmental Scan Trends/drivers SW OT scenario s implicatio ns Vision Mission Values Preferred future Strategic plan Futures process Alt. futures

4. 1972- J. Glenn Origin

6. CHANGE Start with a change. Any kind of event, trend, decision, or proposal over which you have some degree of specific knowledge.

7. CHANGE 1 ST order neutral 1 st order positive 2 nd order 3 rd order 2 nd order 3 rd order 4 th order 5 th order 1 st order negative

8. WHO sprays DDT to kill mosquitoes carrying malaria Borneo- 1950 s malaria declines other insect (wasp) populations decline thatch- eating caterpillars proliferate thatch roofs collapse geckos eat DDT- insects cats eat DDT- geckos rats carrying plague & typhus flourish WHO airdrops healthy cats to kill the rats tourism increases mosquito population declines DDT in living insects

9. what is it? brainstorming safe exploration impact analysis NOT decision- making NOT planning NOT outlining

10. follow forecasts translate stories walk out decisions identify leverage generate action typical uses

11. guidelines 6. work each order separately 7. move quickly 8. dictate direction of change 9. repetition is okay 10. use conditional words CHANGE 1 ST order neutral 1 st order positive 2 nd order 3 rd order guidelines 1.Not time-sensitive, but must be next in order 2.Write the “possible” 3.minimum 3 nodes per order 4.Positive & negative 5.be & write specific 1 st order negative

12. guidelines 1.Not time-sensitive, but must be next in order 2.Write the “possible” 3.minimum 3 nodes per order 4.Positive & negative 5.be & write specific 6. work each order separately 7. move quickly 8. dictate direction of change 9. repetition is okay 10. use conditional words

13. Positive: helps assign relative value considers POV Negative: arbitrary clutters possibly misleading scoring

14. Look for: Ways to make the wheel actionable. Not all the implications have to result in plans, but those that are highly probable or desirable should. next steps

15. Look for: bridges to positive outcomes and barriers to negative outcomes next steps

16. Look for: highly important implications where there is critical but unknown information next steps

17. CHANGE Exercise Event(s): Over the next 6.5 years, half of the DOMs in Texas will retire.

18. Links: Futures methods and techniques: http://www.thefuturesacademy.ie/futures/methods http://www.thefuturesacademy.ie/futures/methods Relevance trees and futures wheels: http://jcflowers1.iweb.bsu.edu/rlo/tarelevance.htm http://jcflowers1.iweb.bsu.edu/rlo/tarelevance.htm The futures wheel: http://www.mindtools.com/pages/article/futures-wheel.htmhttp://www.mindtools.com/pages/article/futures-wheel.htm The implications wheel by Joel Barker: http://implicationswheel.com/http://implicationswheel.com/ Books & Articles: Hines, A., & Bishop, P. (2006). Thinking about the future: Guidelines for strategic foresight. Washington, D.C.: Social Technologies, LLC. Resources