2. Campaigns and Elections Chapter 9

3. ELECTIONS: THE RULES OF THE GAME  While the Constitution sets certain conditions and requirement, most electoral rules remain matters of state law.  Regularly Scheduled Elections Day of congressional election Day of congressional election Day of presidential election Day of presidential election  Fixed terms Consequences of length of term for Congressmen and Senators. Consequences of length of term for Congressmen and Senators.  Staggered terms

4. Term Limits  Some offices have them and others do not.  President. Two terms. 22 nd Amendment  Consequences of two-term limit Lame Duck. Lame Duck.  Neither Senators nor Representatives have term limits under federal law. Attempt by states to limit congressional terms held Unconst. Attempt by states to limit congressional terms held Unconst.  State Term Limits 15 states limit the length of time a person can serve in the state legislature. 15 states limit the length of time a person can serve in the state legislature. Almost all Governors have term limits Almost all Governors have term limits  Pros and cons of Congressional term limits

5. Winner Take All  Winner take all system  Single-Member Districts  Comparison to proportional representation Consequence for minor parties Consequence for minor parties

6. Electoral College  To win the presidency, must get a majority (not a plurality) of the electoral votes.  Framers did not trust the people with a direct election. Wanted to preserve federalism by requiring candidates to be able to carry states.  How each states electoral votes are calculated  How electors are “elected”  Winner-take-all in all states but two.  Effect of 12 th Amendment

7. Electoral College  Electors go to the state capital on the first Monday after the second Wednesday in December to cast their ballots.  Ballots are then sent to Congress. Open in early January and counted.  Takes a majority of the electoral votes to win. If no candidate gets a majority, House picks between the top three candidates. Vote in the House is by state and each state has only one vote.  VP election goes to Senates. Top Two.  Election has gone to the House on two occasions.  How does Electoral College affect how candidates campaign?

8. Electoral College

9. Small States Have A Proportional Advantage

10. Running for Congress  Most House races are not close. Why?  Problem with too many “safe” seats.  Coattail Effect  Mid-Term Congressional Election. What happens to the President’s party?  The Republican Revolution in 1994. Significance?

11. Congressional Primaries  Most incumbents not challenged  Challenge in the party out of power is to get any press coverage.  Must build organization and volunteer support. Find a message.

12. Congressional General Election  95% of house members win reelection. Most challengers lose badly.  Incumbents out-spend challengers 3-1.  It is a struggle to find serious candidates to challenge for House seats because it is such an uphill battle to win.  Incumbents have a host of advantages. List List  Major political upheaval can put more Congressmen at risk.  Effects of redistricting

13. Competitive House Seats, 2000–2008.

14. The Spending Gap

15. The Challenger’s Challenge

17. Running for the Senate  Senate is a much bigger prize. Thus, usually much more competition.  Much more expensive, takes a much more sophisticated organization  Competition is usually intense and is especially intense when balance of power in Senate is at stake.  Senate candidates get much more money from interest groups.  Incumbency is an advantage, but not as big. Why? Why?

18. RUNNING FOR PRESIDENT  Running for President has three stages: Winning the nomination; Winning the nomination; campaigning at the convention and campaigning at the convention and mobilizing support in the general election. mobilizing support in the general election.  Nomination: Running for President starts almost as soon as the last election is over Running for President starts almost as soon as the last election is over

19. Presidential Primaries  Main method of choosing delegates who will select the nominee at the Convention.  Three-fourths of the states have primaries.  The rest selected at caucuses at which members of the party select delegates.  Traditionally, the primaries have been spread over the spring of the election years.  Iowa and New Hampshire have traditionally been the first. Pros and Cons of NH and Iowa being first. Pros and Cons of NH and Iowa being first.  Changes in Primary Schedule over last 20 years More Compressed More Compressed Greater premium on name recognition and party support Greater premium on name recognition and party support

20. Types of Primaries  Proportional representation. Used in most states and is mandated in all by the Democrats. Non-binding beyond the first ballot.  Winner-takes-all.  Delegate selection—are not voting for a candidate, but for a delegate who may or may not pledge to vote for anyone. Only used by Republicans and only in a very few states.  Delegate selection and separate presidential poll—voters cast two votes, one in a beauty contest and one for delegates pledged or at least favorable to a particular candidate.

21. Caucuses  Oldest and simplest way of selecting delegate.  Mechanics of how they work  Used by about a dozen states  Turnout lower than in Primaries  Who they favor  Iowa the most significant

22. Nomination Strategy  Skip unfavorable states?  How much to play to the base and how to do it without boxing yourself in.  How to manage expectations effectively.  Picking which states to invest scarce resources.

23. The Convention  Summer before the election  Party out of power goes first  Pre 1940 actually selected nominee; now a coronation  Key events at Convention Write Platform Write Platform Energize the base Energize the base Key-Note Address Key-Note Address VP Selection (sometimes) VP Selection (sometimes) VP acceptance Speech VP acceptance Speech Nominee acceptance Speech Nominee acceptance Speech

24. Selecting the VP Candidate  What are the important considerations when selecting a running mate?

25. Nomination by Petition  Can get on the ballot without being nominated if get enough signatures to meet the state requirements.  The number of signatures varies from state to state. Everything from 200 in Washington to 2% of the vote in the last election in North Carolina. Everything from 200 in Washington to 2% of the vote in the last election in North Carolina.  Is hard to get on the ballot in all 50 states. Perot in ‘92. Anderson in 1980. Nader in all but 7 states in 2000.

26. The General Election  Strategy differs from election to election, but there is a strong correlation between the economy and the success of the incumbent  Pick key states and key issues  Voter turnout can be a key. Democrats’ advantage in numbers is off-set by Republican higher voter turnout Get out the vote drives Get out the vote drives

27. The Media and the Image (Not in Text)  Creating image  On Message v. Off message  Leave no shot left unanswered/Clinton’s War room  Willie Horton Willie Horton Willie Horton

28. Presidential Debates  Started in 1960 with Nixon and Kennedy Power of TV imagery discovered Power of TV imagery discovered  Next, Ford-Carter in 1976  Now, public expects.  Usually two or three, plus VP  Do more to reinforce opinion than change it. But some have had dramatic consequences But some have had dramatic consequences  Large TV audience

29. Presidential Debates  Nonpartisan Commission on Presidential  Debates are especially important for the challenger  Winning and Losing—Playing the expectation game Spin Spin  Third Party Participation. The “does he have a prayer” test The “does he have a prayer” test

30. MONEY IN AMERICAN ELECTIONS  Sources of campaign funds:  Reason Money is Given  Problems

31. Reform Efforts  Efforts to Reform: efforts to reform have fallen into three types: 1) limits on giving and receiving 1) limits on giving and receiving 2) requiring public disclosure of the sources and uses of political money 2) requiring public disclosure of the sources and uses of political money 3) giving governmental subsidies to presidential candidates with required limits on outside funding and spending. 3) giving governmental subsidies to presidential candidates with required limits on outside funding and spending.

32. The Federal Election Campaign Act—1971  First major effort to regulate campaign financing  limited amounts that candidates for federal office can spend on media ads. (Overturned)  requires the disclosure of the sources of campaign funds  Limits amount that can be given  requires the disclosure of how funds are spent.  PACS must register and report donations  Created FEC to oversee law.

33. Break-Down in Public Financing  2004. Major candidates decline pre- convention Money  2008. Obama becomes first candidate to decline post-convention money. Raises 6- times what would have received as subsidy.

34. FECA, Cont.  Later Amendments: Tax check-off to create funds to be spent on federal campaigns Tax check-off to create funds to be spent on federal campaigns Permitted national parties, unions corporations and individuals to give unlimited money to state parties. “Soft Money Permitted national parties, unions corporations and individuals to give unlimited money to state parties. “Soft Money

35. Buckley v. Valeo (1976)  What did this case hold?  Which Constitutional Amendment was involved?  How was the FECA Amended as a result

36. Section 1—The Nominating Process Limits on Contributions  Individuals limited to $2300 to any one candidate in the primary and $2400 in the general election.  Limited to $5000 a year to single PAC and $28,500 to a national party.  Total contribution limit to candidates and PACs is 108,200, during any election cycle (the two years from one general election to the next one).  PACs are limited to $5000 to any single federal candidate in an election, but they can contribute to as many candidates as they want. $15000 limit to parties

37. Death of Public Financing  Old System Matching Funds in Primaries Matching Funds in Primaries Subsidy for General Election, but limited to those funds Subsidy for General Election, but limited to those funds  Bush first candidate to refuse primary money  Obama refuses in general election in 2008  Now public financing essentially dead

38. Soft Money  What is soft money?  Why was it a problem  Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act of 2001 How does it regulate “soft money”? How does it regulate “soft money”? How does it change the FECA contribution limits? How does it change the FECA contribution limits? How does it change advertising? How does it change advertising?

39. Issue Advocacy  First Amendment Rules  BCRA provisions to address this  Supreme Court ruling

40. 527 Groups  Protected by First Amendment  Problem for candidates  Impact on elections Swift-boat Veterans for Truth Swift-boat Veterans for Truth  Impact in 2009

41. Problems with Campaign Finance  Rising Cost of Campaigns  Declining Competition  Dependence on PACs  Personal Wealth  Growth of Individual Contributions

42. IMPROVING ELECTIONS  Proposals for election reform have been aimed primarily at four things: Number, timing and representativeness of presidential primaries Number, timing and representativeness of presidential primaries Reforming Electoral College Reforming Electoral College How we vote How we vote Campaign Finance Reform Campaign Finance Reform

43. Reforming Presidential Primaries  Criticisms of current system quality of participation isn’t very good quality of participation isn’t very good One-vote rule nominates candidates who don’t represent the views of party One-vote rule nominates candidates who don’t represent the views of party Schedule is too long and too compressed Schedule is too long and too compressed System does not select the best person to be president. System does not select the best person to be president.

44. Voter Turnout in the 2004 Presidential Primaries. Source: Curtis B. Gans, Director, Committee for the study of the American Electorate, facsimile to author, September 22, 2004.

45. Proposed Reforms of Primary System  National Primary Pros and Cons Pros and Cons  Regional Primaries Pros and Cons Pros and Cons  Greater use of Caucuses  Reverse Convention  Prospects for Reform

46. Reforming the Electoral College “ Flaws” in Electoral College  Popular vote winner loses in electoral college Happened four times Happened four times Causes Causes  Disloyal electors could change the result  Election can be thrown into the House and Senate Some states could be unrepresented Some states could be unrepresented

47. Proposed Reforms to Electoral College  The District Plan  The Proportional Plan  Direct Popular Election  The National Bonus Plan  Advantages of the Present System

48. End of Chapter