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CalWater 2015/ACAPEX Forecast Products Jason Cordeira, Plymouth State University Andrew Martin, UCSD/Scripps Jonathan Rutz, NOAA/NWS CalWater 2 – ACAPEX.

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Presentation on theme: "CalWater 2015/ACAPEX Forecast Products Jason Cordeira, Plymouth State University Andrew Martin, UCSD/Scripps Jonathan Rutz, NOAA/NWS CalWater 2 – ACAPEX."— Presentation transcript:

1 CalWater 2015/ACAPEX Forecast Products Jason Cordeira, Plymouth State University Andrew Martin, UCSD/Scripps Jonathan Rutz, NOAA/NWS CalWater 2 – ACAPEX Planning Workshop Scripps Institution of Oceanography | 5 – 7 Nov 2014

2 “STM” for forecast products from June 2014 CalWater 2015/ACAPEX Forecast Products

3 Product STM/CW2/ACAPEX requirements AR location/intensity/horizontal structure as measured through IWV/IVT AR vertical structure as measured through RH, q-flux, potential temperature AR IWV tendency/budget Aerosol long-range transport Local Pollutants CalWater 2015/ACAPEX Forecast Products

4 Product STM/CW2/ACAPEX requirements AR location/intensity/horizontal structure as measured through IWV/IVT AR vertical structure as measured through RH, q-flux, potential temperature AR IWV tendency/budget Aerosol long-range transport Local Pollutants CalWater 2015/ACAPEX Forecast Products Andrew’s realm

5 Product STM/CW2/ACAPEX requirements AR location/intensity/horizontal structure as measured through IWV/IVT AR vertical structure as measured through RH, q-flux, potential temperature AR IWV tendency/budget Deterministic (short-term) and ensemble (longer-term) Products focus on GFS (hear more from Andrew on West-WRF) CalWater 2015/ACAPEX Forecast Products

6 AR location/intensity/structure Plan-view diagnostics (GFS; Δ t=3h,PSU) 00/06/12/18Z forecasts & different domains CalWater 2015/ACAPEX Forecast Products IWV, 850V, SLPIVT/IVT vector

7 AR location/intensity/structure AR Detection Tool (Wick et al) Obs (SSMI) and forecast (GFS) CalWater 2015/ACAPEX Forecast Products

8 NWS SA and NAEFS Pages SA Page: http://ssd.wrh.noaa.gov/satable/http://ssd.wrh.noaa.gov/satable/ – Good heads up site for anticipating events NAEFS Page: http://ssd.wrh.noaa.gov/naefs/http://ssd.wrh.noaa.gov/naefs/ – Good for estimating confidence/uncertainty CalWater 2015/ACAPEX Forecast Products

9 AR location/intensity/structure GFS Ensemble thumbs 00/12Z forecasts CalWater 2015/ACAPEX Forecast Products

10 AR location/intensity/structure GFS Ensemble IVT exceedance probability 00/12Z forecasts CalWater 2015/ACAPEX Forecast Products

11 AR location/intensity/structure Plume diagrams for coastal locations Different locations available 00/12Z forecasts CalWater 2015/ACAPEX Forecast Products

12 AR location/intensity/structure GFS Ensemble AR Landfall Probability Tool 00/06/12/18Z forecasts CalWater 2015/ACAPEX Forecast Products

13 AR vertical structure Comprehensive AR cross section analyses CalWater 2015/ACAPEX Forecast Products IWV IVT FLUX Transect

14 AR vertical structure Comprehensive AR cross section analyses Still in development: Which forecast hours? Along which meridians? What statistics? CalWater 2015/ACAPEX Forecast Products FLUX Transect

15 AR vertical structure AR time-height meteogram Still in development; add theta, relative humidity, IVT? Similar to ESRL ARO forecasts? CalWater 2015/ACAPEX Forecast Products Add IVT? For any latitude/longitude 

16 AR IWV budget/tendency Daily-averaged GFS forecasts of IVT convergence, evaporation, precipitation, and their sum (i.e., the IWV tendency) 00/12Z forecasts out to 5 days Available, but still in development CalWater 2015/ACAPEX Forecast Products IVT Convergence Evaporation Precipitation Tendency

17 Data, Development, Access Development and Hosting: – All products currently generated/hosted on Plymouth State meteorology dev/web servers Access (the unfortunate brutal truth): – Most products linked from my faculty website – Some products active, but currently “hidden” – Some products developed, but not yet cronned – Some products linked from CW3E CalWater 2015/ACAPEX Forecast Products

18 Data, Development, Access Goal: – Develop common access site at Plymouth (mirrored at CW3E?) for all GFS and GFS Ensemble AR analyses and forecasts by early December 2014 – Set up clean directory structure – Begin archiving of all images (site) by early December 2014 – Identify which images (or generated data) can/should be incorporated into MTS Key: the work is done, now I just have to clean it up… CalWater 2015/ACAPEX Forecast Products

19 Overview of High-Res and Chemistry Products Aerosol Diagnostics Polar Orbiting Satellite Retrievals (MODIS, CrIS, MISR, CALIOP, CLOUDSAT) Geosynchronous Satellite Retrievals (GOES-W) GEOS-5 / NAAPS global aerosol transport forecasts High-Res Products NWS “Local” WRF AR Forecast Products HRRR/CHEM PM2.5 / PM10 forecasts WRF w/ Tracers PM2.5, CO, SO2 forecasts West-WRF AR Forecast Products Motivation: Identify features and processes described in CW-2 science goals that are not well predicted by common national weather center forecasts. They include both aerosol-related products and high-resolution atmospheric river products. CalWater 2015/ACAPEX Forecast Products

20 Product Sources and Availability CalWater 2015/ACAPEX Forecast Products

21 More Detail: Satellite Aerosol and Cloud Products Products which can be directed to MTS from the data center may be useful less than 1 hr after observation Suomi-NPP VIIRS/CrIS AOD, wv, T profiles and dust detection Other satellite products which would be beneficial in MTS: MODIS, MISR AOT CALIOP profiles CLOUDSAT profiles GOES-W VISST July 31 – August 1, 2013 Saharan dust outbreak as seen by VIIRS CalWater 2015/ACAPEX Forecast Products

22 To Help identify locally emitted aerosol plumes before they arrive at BBY, HRRR will be relied upon to provide: Surface PM2.5 and PM10 (HRRR, “full chemistry”) Select runs of WRF w/ tracers at CW3E can provide Surface PM2.5, CO, SO2 (West-WRF, “Tracers only”) Time-height “stick model” of PM2.5, CO, SO2, boundary layer height and cloud base (West-WRF, “Tracers only”) HRRR Sfc PM2.5 init 11-02-2014_1200 F12 More Detail: Products to Assist Ground Operations CalWater 2015/ACAPEX Forecast Products

23 To Help identify clouds, and precipitation, AR and SBJ up to 3 days in the future, High-Res WRF will be relied upon to provide: Precipitation (dx 3 km) Cloud cover in 3 layers (low, mid, high) (dx 3 km) Freezing level (dx 3 km) Wind speed and direction at 1 km AGL (dx 3 km) GEOS-5 Global dust forecast available through MTS. DRI 3-hr Prcp. init 10-31-2014_1200 F30 More Detail: Products to Assist Gulfstream-1 Operations CalWater 2015/ACAPEX Forecast Products

24 Coming Online: West-WRF High resolution (3 km) 2x daily with lead time up to 192 hr at 3 hr intervals. Currently available products include: Horizontal wind at 10m, 1 km 3 km Hourly precipitation rate and accumulated precipitation Integrated water vapor Integrated vapor transport Products in development: Terrain-normal vapor flux at 1-2 km AGL Time-height “stick models” of wind, wv flux, virtual potential temperature at select locations CalWater 2015/ACAPEX Forecast Products

25 Review/Overview GFS products in place, need finalization/cleaning Products to assist planning of aerosol-cloud targeted operations will primarily come from satellite retrievals and high resolution RCM Satellite are great at finding aerosols “now”, models are great at predicting where weather “will be”; few products are great at both Development of new products (HRRR, West-WRF, etc.) is continuing CalWater 2015/ACAPEX Forecast Products

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