1. SOCIAL IMPACT OF EMIGRATION AND RURAL- URBAN MIGRATION IN BULGARIA Prof. D. Sc. Rossitsa Rangelova Economic Research Institute Bulgarian Academy of Sciences Sofia, 19.10.2012

2. Background The paper is based on the Country report for Bulgaria in the Project “Social Impact of Emigration and Rural-Urban Migration in Central and Eastern Europe”, VC/2010/001. On behalf of the European Commission DG Employment, Social Affairs and Inclusion, coordinated by GVG institute in Cologne (Germany). The other participant from Bulgaria is George Bogdanov. The paper is based on the Country report for Bulgaria in the Project “Social Impact of Emigration and Rural-Urban Migration in Central and Eastern Europe”, VC/2010/001. On behalf of the European Commission DG Employment, Social Affairs and Inclusion, coordinated by GVG institute in Cologne (Germany). The other participant from Bulgaria is George Bogdanov.

3. The reports of the Migration study have now been published by the European Commission. You can find the link below: http://ec.europa.eu/social/keyDocuments.jsp?p ager.offset=0&langId=fr&mode=advancedSub mit&policyArea=0&subCategory=0&year=0& country=0&type=0&advSearchKey=Emigratio nMigrationCentralEasternEurope&orderBy=do cOrder have now been published by the European Commission. You can find the link below: http://ec.europa.eu/social/keyDocuments.jsp?p ager.offset=0&langId=fr&mode=advancedSub mit&policyArea=0&subCategory=0&year=0& country=0&type=0&advSearchKey=Emigratio nMigrationCentralEasternEurope&orderBy=do cOrder http://ec.europa.eu/social/keyDocuments.jsp?p ager.offset=0&langId=fr&mode=advancedSub mit&policyArea=0&subCategory=0&year=0& country=0&type=0&advSearchKey=Emigratio nMigrationCentralEasternEurope&orderBy=do cOrder http://ec.europa.eu/social/keyDocuments.jsp?p ager.offset=0&langId=fr&mode=advancedSub mit&policyArea=0&subCategory=0&year=0& country=0&type=0&advSearchKey=Emigratio nMigrationCentralEasternEurope&orderBy=do cOrder

4. Migration - Basic questions: What are the recent and current trends in international migration and rural- urban migration flows? What are the recent and current trends in international migration and rural- urban migration flows? Which are the main destination countries of emigration? Which are the main destination countries of emigration? What are the “push” and “pull” factors that impact on migration in these countries? What are the “push” and “pull” factors that impact on migration in these countries?

5. Migration - Basic questions: Who moves between the regions, who moves internationally, and who returns (e.g. age, sex, educational attainments, economic activity etc.)? Who moves between the regions, who moves internationally, and who returns (e.g. age, sex, educational attainments, economic activity etc.)? Which impact does the crisis have on migration and remittances? Which impact does the crisis have on migration and remittances?

6. Government’s estimates on the number of Bulgarian immigrants by country, 2008 Destination country Number of immigrants from Bulgaria Destination country Number of immigrants from Bulgaria USA Around 200,000 USA Around 200,000 Spain Over 120,000 Spain Over 120,000 Greece Around 110,000 Greece Around 110,000 (non-official 200,000) (non-official 200,000) United Kingdom Over 60,000 United Kingdom Over 60,000 Germany Over 50,000 Germany Over 50,000 Italy Around 50,000 Italy Around 50,000 Canada Around 45,000 Canada Around 45,000 Austria Around 25,000 Austria Around 25,000 Total number Around 700,000 Total number Around 700,000

7. Possible Social Effects of Migration in Sending Countries, Positive: Inflow of remittances benefiting receiving individuals and countries Inflow of remittances benefiting receiving individuals and countries Remittances may lead to increased investment in education and improved access to social and medical services of family members left behind Remittances may lead to increased investment in education and improved access to social and medical services of family members left behind

8. Possible Social Effects of Migration in Sending Countries, Positive: Emigration may reduce unemployment in some sectors Emigration may reduce unemployment in some sectors Investments from diasporas and returnees Investments from diasporas and returnees Improvement of human capital of migrants / returnees Improvement of human capital of migrants / returnees

9. Possible Social Effects of Migration in Sending Countries, Negative: Loss of highly skilled workers followed by reduced growth and productivity Loss of highly skilled workers followed by reduced growth and productivity Reduced quality and availability of essential services (e.g. medical and social services, education) Reduced quality and availability of essential services (e.g. medical and social services, education) Labour force withdrawal by migrant family members receiving remittances Labour force withdrawal by migrant family members receiving remittances

10. Possible Social Effects of Migration in Sending Countries, Negative: Progressive ageing and increased dependency ratio Progressive ageing and increased dependency ratio Pressure for wage increases in some professions Pressure for wage increases in some professions Neglected care for children and elderly left behind Neglected care for children and elderly left behind Lower school performance and enrolment of children left behind Lower school performance and enrolment of children left behind Family disintegration Family disintegration

11. Workers’ remittances and compensation of employees received as % of GDP, 2007

12. Internal migration, 2010, number OutflowInflow From the towns From the villages Total To the towns 67 441 67 441 36 294 36 294 103 735 To the villages 33 881 33 881 14 078 14 078 47 959 47 959 Total 101 322 50 372 50 372 151 694 Migration balance 2 413 2 413 -2 413 -2 4130

13. The Project identifies four specific problems that characterise rural areas and which are determinants of poverty in rural areas and in turn promote rural-urban internal migration but also outward migration: unfavourable demographic situation, unfavourable demographic situation, remoteness, remoteness, low educational levels, low educational levels, poor labour market opportunities. poor labour market opportunities.

14. Vicious circles of migration reproducing and fostering poverty in rural areas:

15. Basic demographic indicators, 2011 TotalUrbanRural Natural increase (per 1000) -5.1-2.2-12.7 Structure by location, % 100.070.629.4 Mortality (per 1000), incl. 14.712.220.7 Men Men15.813.622.3 Women Women13.711.019.2 Birth rate (per 1000) 9.610.08.7

16. Basic demographic indicators, 2011 TotalUrbanRural Total fertility rate 1.51 1.51 1.43 1.432.01 Infant mortality rate -per 1000 (2010) 9.4 9.4 8.3 8.313.7 Average age – in years (2006) 41.4 41.4 39.7 39.7 45.3 45.3 Life expect. at birth (years) - 2006 and (2008-2010) 72.6 (73.4) 73.071.5 Men Men 69.1 (70.0) 69.1 (70.0)69.467.9 Women Women 76.3 (77.2) 76.575.6

17. Age structure of the total population in Bulgaria, 2006, % TotalMaleFemale 0-1413.614.412.8 15-6469.270.967.6 65+17.214.719.6 Total100.0100.0100.0

18. GDP per capita and coefficient of variation for the six regions in Bulgaria, 1995-2008

19. The socio-economic analysis of regions in Bulgaria shows that not only disparities between the regions in Bulgaria in terms of socio-economic development are very important but that the areas mostly affected by depopulation are the most disadvantaged ones and turn to be excluded places for living in Bulgaria. A look at the most relevant indicators show that the North-West region can be considered as the most affected net migration loss region. shows that not only disparities between the regions in Bulgaria in terms of socio-economic development are very important but that the areas mostly affected by depopulation are the most disadvantaged ones and turn to be excluded places for living in Bulgaria. A look at the most relevant indicators show that the North-West region can be considered as the most affected net migration loss region.

20. Social Impact of Migration - Basic questions: What is the impact of emigration and rural- urban migration on the labour market of the home region/country? What is the impact of emigration and rural- urban migration on the labour market of the home region/country? What is the impact of remittances on income and poverty reduction? What is the impact of remittances on income and poverty reduction? How social security schemes are co- ordinated between host and home countries and what is the impact on the access to social protection (pension, health care and unemployment benefits)? How social security schemes are co- ordinated between host and home countries and what is the impact on the access to social protection (pension, health care and unemployment benefits)?

21. Social Impact of Migration - Basic questions: How is the access to social services (health care, long term care, etc.) for family members left behind? How is the access to social services (health care, long term care, etc.) for family members left behind? Does emigration influence family roles and if yes, in what respect (care drain, abandon of children etc.)? Does emigration influence family roles and if yes, in what respect (care drain, abandon of children etc.)? Which groups are in particular vulnerable to the impacts of migration? Which groups are in particular vulnerable to the impacts of migration?

22. Social Impact of Migration Impact on labour market and human capital Impact on labour market and human capital Remittances Remittances Access to social protection and social services Access to social protection and social services Vulnerable Groups: Women, Children and Elderly, Roma and other ethnic minorities. Vulnerable Groups: Women, Children and Elderly, Roma and other ethnic minorities.

23. Population structure in Bulgaria by ethnical groups, 2011, Total=100% Total In the towns In the villages Bulgarians84.8 90.3 90.370.0 Turkish 8.8 8.8 4.6 4.620.6 Roma 4.9 4.9 3.7 3.7 8.1 8.1 Other 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 Not identified 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.0

24. Policy responses – Basic questions: What is the impact of national policies addressing migration and social inclusion? What is the impact of national policies addressing migration and social inclusion? What is the impact of EU-funded programmes (regional development programmes, ESF support to migrants etc.) addressing migration and social inclusion? What is the impact of EU-funded programmes (regional development programmes, ESF support to migrants etc.) addressing migration and social inclusion?

25. Policy responses – Basic questions: Which measures for returnees and their families are relevant to support labour market integration, education and vocational training etc.? Which measures for returnees and their families are relevant to support labour market integration, education and vocational training etc.? What are examples of good practice at national level and can they be adapted to other contexts? What are examples of good practice at national level and can they be adapted to other contexts?

26. Policy responses in Bulgaria First of all a recommendation to the State would be to closely monitor migration processes in the country. First of all a recommendation to the State would be to closely monitor migration processes in the country. Optimal information availability should be in place which is missing at this stage. Optimal information availability should be in place which is missing at this stage.

27. Policy responses in Bulgaria The successful future of this policy is not in the retention of human capital in Bulgaria, but in promoting its development via or during migration abroad and taking advantage of it in the country. In spite of the efforts undertaken by the national authorities, there are still no specific and sufficient services in place for people who return. The successful future of this policy is not in the retention of human capital in Bulgaria, but in promoting its development via or during migration abroad and taking advantage of it in the country. In spite of the efforts undertaken by the national authorities, there are still no specific and sufficient services in place for people who return.

28. Policy responses in Bulgaria A common feature of the current Bulgarian migration policy remains the substantial number of strategies, action plans, programs, etc. but they have pure declarative character and the lack of goals set out in them with indicators for the achievement of actual results. The policy is not enough focussed on circular migration. Having in mind the flexibility and mobility of migrants, this is a crucial point when designing policies trying to support net migration loss regions. A common feature of the current Bulgarian migration policy remains the substantial number of strategies, action plans, programs, etc. but they have pure declarative character and the lack of goals set out in them with indicators for the achievement of actual results. The policy is not enough focussed on circular migration. Having in mind the flexibility and mobility of migrants, this is a crucial point when designing policies trying to support net migration loss regions.

29. Thank you for your attention. Thank you for your attention.