1. Possible Management Solutions – Strategies– of the Climate Change Problem 19.12.2006 15:15-15:35 Nils Deutschmann 0/22

2. Thoughts…(of economists) cheaper to relocate than to put a burden on the economy by reducing the climate gases. It is much cheaper to relocate the population of the southern ocean islands on the costs of the industrial countries, of for example Australia or Indonesia, than to put a burden on the economy by reducing the climate gases. 1/22

3. 2 Views of Climate Change (Solutions) Cause  Effect (natural science) Cost  Benefit (economic view) 2/22

4. Cause  Effect Climate damage = vulnerability * climate change Means that damage depends not only on change, but also on the vulnerability 3/22

5. Who is vulnerable? Water-dependent ecosystems: Tropics Polar regions …because of Agriculture Tourism 4/22

6. Cost  Benefit Benefit of climate protection = avoided climate damage – mitigation costs $ - adaptation costs $ OK? NO? WHY NOT? 5/22

7. Cost  Benefit (Problem because…) 1. … of giving objects a price $ 2. … of giving mitigation, adaptation measures and climate damage a price $ 3. … not all political decisions are Cost- Benefit orientated 4. … of a global and generational injustice 6/22

8. Therefore: Cause  Effect (natural science) Global Targets Anthropogenic global problems have to be solved globally United Nations UNFCCC (UN Framework Convention on CC) Rio Conference June 1992 Article 2 Stabilize CO2 so that… … Natural ecosystem adaptation … No harm to agriculture … No harm to economy 7/22

9. Therefore: Cause  Effect (natural science) Global Targets European Union 1993. Council Meeting (25 th June 1996 Luxemburg) Global mean temperature increase 2°C after industrialization Atmospheric CO 2 < 550ppm Goals formulated on: Council of EU-Environment Ministers 6 th EAP (Environment Action Program) Enquete Commission “Protection of the Earth’s Atmosphere” of the German Parliament (1990ies) WBGU 1995 (Wissenschaftlicher Beirat der Bundesregierung) Sondergutachten 2003 zur 9. VSK (Vertragsstaatenkonferenz) Tony Blair’s conference 2005 “Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change” 8/22

10. What to do? Mitigation (Vermeidung) Technological progress in carbon-free industry Adaptation (Anpassung) Intelligent and flexible social organisation Laissez-Faire-Strategy (Ignoring-Strategy) No moral doubts 9/22

11. What to do? 10/22

12. Geo-engineering Global atmospheric modification 11/22

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14. Screening out sunlight Space mirrors Stratospheric dust Cloud stimulation 13/22

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16. Iron fertilization Pro More phytoplankton Less CO2 Dead plankton sinks to ocean ground (CO2 is bound) More phytoplankton = more food for other species  more food for human population 15/22

17. Iron fertilization Contra Marine ecosystem is changed The decay of phytoplankton decreases the oxygen concentration in the ocean Microbiological activity under low oxygen levels may result in high methane and di-nitrate monoxide concentrations The fertilization would have to take place in the southern ocean, as only there the water sinks down and therefore takes the CO2 to the ocean floor 16/22

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19. Overview 1 18/22

20. Storage options 19/22

21. Ocean storage 20/22

22. Power plant with CO2 capture 21/22

23. Geo-engineering Future Reality or Fiction? 22/22

24. Thanks for your attention!

25. Comments for Nils Deutschmann from Manfred Stock 1.To be finished.....