1. Leading the way in Agriculture and Rural Research, Education and Consulting The virtuous cycle of ruminants: can adaptation to climate change help mitigation Pol Llonch a,b, Marie Haskell a, Xavier Manteca b, Simon Turner a a SRUC, West Mains Road, Edinburgh, EH9 3JG, United Kingdom b UAB, School of Veterinary Science, Cerdanyola del Valles, 08193, Barcelona, Spain

2. Contribution of ruminants to climate change Livestock are responsible of 12% of global GHG emissions Tubiello et al. (2013) The FAOSTAT database of greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture. Environ Res Lett 8, 015009. Ruminants emit the largest proportion of direct livestock GHG emissions –Methane (enteric fermentation) 97% –Nitrous oxide (manure)89% Estimations predict a 40% growth of human population by 2050, increasing demand for livestock products McMichael et al. (2007) Food, livestock production, energy, climate change, and health. The Lancet 370, 1253-1263. Livestock´s long shadow, FAO, 2007.

3. Mitigation of climate change Better management of ruminants can help to mitigate climate change by reducing emissions of GHG´s; predominantly methane (CH 4 ) and nitrous oxide (N 2 O)

4. Mitigation vs. Adaptation The fact of climate change Efforts in GHG mitigation should not neglect adaptation to predicted changes in the climate Number of natural catastrophe loss events worldwide 1980 – 2013. Source: Munich Re Geo Risks Research Estimation of global temperatures till 2100. Source:5 th Report, IPCC (2014)

5. Adaptation Efficiency Mitigation Mitigation through Adaptation Can adaptation marry mitigation?

6. Rise of global temperatures IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007 Increase likelihood of heat stress Adaptation: heat stress tolerance

7. Low stress-responsive cattle have smaller CH 4 emissions Llonch et al. Unpublished data. Association between stress biomarkers and methane emissions in cattle. g CH 4 /Kg DMI Cortisol extreme groups

8. Adaptation: facing new parasites Change of the distribution pattern of parasites Fox et al. 2011 Predicting impacts of climate change on Fasciola hepatica risk. Plos one, e16126. Prediction model for liver fluke distribution in the UK

9. Adaptation: facing new parasites Better control of intestinal worms is associated with lower GHG emissions in sheep NST: Preventive routine treatment SPT: Preventive systematic according to local conditions TST: Preventive systematic according to weight MT: Therapeutic (after confirmation of infection) Extracted from Kenyon et al. (2013) Reduction in greenhouse gas emissions associated with worm control in lambs. Agriculture 3: 271-284.

10. Adaptation: coping with extreme events Higher frequency of extreme weather events Floods Droughts IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007

11. Adaptation: coping with extreme events Losses caused by extreme weather events cause system inefficiency and critically poor animal welfare Extracted from Nkedianye et al. (2011) *Shoats: Sheep + Goats Conwy, Wales (UK), December 2015. Source: BBC Adaptation to extreme events by improving resilience (drought) and risk management (floods) may result in greater efficiency resulting in lower emission (GHG) intensity.

12. Conclusions 1.Better management of ruminant production can contribute to GHG mitigation 3.Adaptation to climate change can improve ruminant production through more efficient animals based on three principles of improved welfare: – Reduction of stress – Better health – Improved longevity 2.Expected changes in the climate are predicted to impact ruminant production decreasing animal welfare and system efficiency

13. Leading the way in Agriculture and Rural Research, Education and Consulting Acknowledgements This work was funded by a Marie Curie Intra- European Fellowship within the 7th European Community Framework Programme (PIEF-GA- 2012-331505).