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The limits to adaptation and why Loss and Damage is an essential component of the climate regime. Insights from science and practice for climate risk management.

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Presentation on theme: "The limits to adaptation and why Loss and Damage is an essential component of the climate regime. Insights from science and practice for climate risk management."— Presentation transcript:

1 The limits to adaptation and why Loss and Damage is an essential component of the climate regime. Insights from science and practice for climate risk management and climate justice. Side Event of the Loss and Damage Network hosted by Practical Action Thursday, 26 May 2016 - 11:30—13:00 - Bonn I/II

2 Agenda Statements and perspectives by Colin McQuistan (Practical Action) Reinhard Mechler (IIASA/Vienna Univ. of Economics and Business) Saleemul Huq (International Centre for Climate Change and Development, Independent University Bangladesh) Swenja Surminski (LSE) Laura Schäfer (UNU/MCII) Commentary Sven Harmeling (CARE International) Followed by open plenary discussion. @LossDamage

3 Loss and Damage Network

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5 Perspectives on Loss and Damage Boyd, James and Jones, 2016

6 AA-2 year workplan AA1: Particularly vulnerable developing countries, populations, ecosystems AA2: Comprehensive risk management approaches AA3: Slow onset events AA4: Non-economic losses AA5: Resilience, recovery and rehabilitation AA6: Migration, displacement and human mobility AA7: Financial instruments and tools

7 NGO perspective on Loss & Damage Colin McQuistan, Senior Policy Adviser, Climate Change and DRR, Practical Action

8 CLIMATE CHANGE?

9 RIGHTS ISSUE

10 FINANCING FOR LOSS AND DAMAGE?

11 CARE ECONOMY

12 INFORMATION MANAGEMENT INFORMATION GAP INFORMATION OVERLOAD Joint Needs Assessment SOS and D-Form Other data sources Union Fact Sheets Flood forecasts Disaster Management Plan

13 What is the role for NGO in the Loss and Damage debate?

14 Knowledge for action Technical Innovation Global Reach -Community presence -Scale -Influence and advocacy -Research and modeling -Scientific credibility -Influence regulation -Small and agile -Innovation and ideas piloting Catalyze -Risk engineering -Financial resources -Influence and advocacy Methodologies & tools Case studies Innovation & Technical Advice Innovative need to leveraging complementary skills & expertise

15 The space for Loss and Damage and policy options Reinhard Mechler, Thomas Schinko (IIASA - WU, Vienna - WEGCC, Graz) Side Event of the Loss and Damage Network SB 44, Bonn 26.5.2016

16 The debate is… Damage: to be replaced and repaired Loss: irreversible Retrospective: Dealing with actual Loss and Damage Prospective: Avoiding future Loss and Damage

17 Perspectives on Loss and Damage Boyd, James and Jones, 2016

18 Suggestion for Loss & Damage space Combining perspectives on risk, limits to adaptation, and existential impacts Ex-ante support for physically and socially intolerable climate-related damage as well as ex-post finance for loss.

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20 Confidence levels of attribution of different types of impacts to anthropogenic climate change Huggel et al., 2016

21 SOCIOECONOMIC PROCESSES Socioeconomic Pathways Adaptation and Mitigation Actions Governance CLIMATE Natural Variability Anthropogenic Climate Change RISK Hazards Exposure Vulnerability IMPACTS EMISSIONS and Land-use Change IPCC Working group II: Risk perspective

22 Huggel et al., 2013 Observations System understanding Model simulations Understanding risk

23 Climate change and disaster risk Hazard Exposure Vulnerability C C Risk

24 Climate change and disaster risk Hazard Intensities, duration and frequencies of some hazards changing (IPCC 2012&14) Extreme event attribution in early stages (James et al., 2014; Trenberth et al., 2015) Exposure Dominating factor - currently (IPCC, 2012&14) Vulnerability Key driver, knowledge gaps, significant adaptation deficit (IPCC, 2012) Risk Climate attribution very complex (Schaller et al., 2016) C C

25 The space for Loss & Damage Mechler & Schinko, in review

26 The space for Loss & Damage Mechler & Schinko, in review

27 L&D Risk Space Measures for Irreversible loss The space for Loss & Damage Mechler & Schinko, in review

28 Risk space: Action by the DRR community Repair and rebuild: 87% Prevent: 13% Kellet and Caravani, 2013 Disaster–related financing 1991-2010

29 Risk space: examples Climate Risk Management Climate insurance InsuResilience

30 Funding perspective: What and how to support coping with L&D risk? Regional and national level: Risk pooling and financing - Sovereign insurance and regional pools:  Caribbean, Pacific, Africa Linking to disaster risk reduction National to community level: Public-private partnerships for comprehensive risk reduction: National funds to bolster community-level risk management partnerships – Flood Resilience Alliance & Measuring resilience (Peru)

31 Examples: Measures for irreversible loss Relocation Migration Displacement Facility IPCC, SYR, 2014: Without additional mitigation efforts beyond those in place today, and even with adaptation, warming by the end of the 21st century will lead to high to very high risk of severe, wide-spread and irreversible impacts globally (high confidence).

32 Today IPCC, 2014 Dangerous Climate Change 2014 Reasons for Concern

33 Overall Other options including financing

34 5 Discussion and conclusions L&D space aligns need for action on climate risk management with a concern for measures for irreversible loss Global implication: Funding requirements National to local implication: allocation opportunities based on capacity and needs

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