1. UCL ENERGY INSTITUTE Energy in London, 2062 A contribution to the London 2062 project of the UCL Grand Challenges Paul Ekins Professor of Energy and Environment Policy UCL Energy Institute, University College London University College London March 19 th 2012

2. UCL ENERGY INSTITUTE London’s Energy Use Now Transport Getting about: petrol, diesel, aviation fuel, electricity Home Keeping warm/cool (space heating, air conditioning): gas, electricity Keeping clean (water heating, appliances): gas, electricity Seeing at night (lighting): electricity Having fun (ICT appliances of all sorts): electricity Work Keeping warm/cool (space heating, air conditioning): gas, electricity Working (ICT, little industry): electricity Infrastructure Logistics (road, rail): petrol, diesel, electricity Water/wastewater: electricity Waste (landfill, recycling, energy from waste): diesel, electricity Grids: central/local power networks, gas grid, CHP, district heating

3. UCL ENERGY INSTITUTE Policy pressures Climate policy: ‘the low-carbon transition’, 80% GHG reduction by 2050, 50% by 2025 Energy security: reliability of infrastructure, availability of fuels Affordability: competitiveness of business, affordability for households Climate change: implications for infrastructure (flood defences, housing, transport systems, water/wastewater management, ICT networks, airports)

4. UCL ENERGY INSTITUTE Implications for Energy Supply in London Decarbonised electricity: electricity for transport (EVs), heating (heat pumps), perhaps H2 for fuel cell vehicles, CHP Electricity network: central/local balancing Gas grid: CH4, H2, biogas Heat grid: Energy from waste/CHP/district heating Transport fuels: biofuel component Transport infrastructure: battery/H2 service stations

5. UCL ENERGY INSTITUTE Implications for Energy Demand/Practices Zero-carbon buildings: Improved thermal performance (the Great British Refurb) Building generation of heat/electricity Building electricity and heat management (smart meters, variable tariffs, vehicle plug-ins, peak-load management, responsive appliances) Flexible, conserving behaviours (energy will be expensive) Access over mobility: more cycling, walking, zero- emission vehicles Changes more radical and dramatic than they sound: but once made, the new practices would soon come to seem ‘normal’

6. UCL ENERGY INSTITUTE Policy challenges Price of energy: Decarbonisation requires a high and rising carbon price Low-carbon energy is currently more expensive than high-carbon energy Energy efficiency in buildings: Measuring performance Builders’ skills Building valuation Motivating/regulating householders Incentivising investment: Electricity Market Reform Green Deal loans Green Investment Bank

7. Thank You www.ucl.ac.uk/energy