1. THIS WAS NOT ARGENTINA´S GROWTH AND PRODUCTIVITY DECADE THIS WAS NOT ARGENTINA´S GROWTH AND PRODUCTIVITY DECADE Myths, Legends and Facts about Argentina Growth Patterns Marisa Wierny Director of National Accounts Bureau Argentina Ariel Coremberg Center of Studies of Productivity-ARKLEMS+LAND Project 1 www.arklems.org

2. Argentina’s Development Paradox: Instability and Wasted Human Capital 5 Nobel Prizes 98 Heads of Treasury 58 Presidents of Central Bank 48 Presidents of Argentina 6 Coups d'état 1 current peso = 10 12 *Peso Moneda Nacional 8 defaults

4. Stylized Facts: Continuous Shifts in Macroeconomic Regimes 1990-2001: Washington consensus Trade openness, Privatization, Deregulation and supply-side policies ICT + Spillovers FDI Convertibility-Nominal Anchor for Inflation Expectations 2002-2007 Tail winds from Commodity Price Booms ‘Competitive real exchange rate’ and demand driven policies Income Redistribution, Social Safety Nets 4 2007-2015 Resource Curse and Dutch Disease Low Domestic Savings Sluggish K and Productivity 2 digit Inflation, top 3 at world level

5. CONSUMPTION BOOM, INVESTMENT BUST 3° World Inflation Price Controls Price Freeze of Public Utilities Restrictions on Exports and Imports Capital Flight Drainage of Central Bank Reserves FX Controls Growing FX Black Market Pandora Box Effects …….But 2007 administration decided to hide inflation by intervening CPI and National Statistics Institute (INDEC)/ Pandora Box Effects

7. Pandora Box Effects of Politically- Imposed Distortions on Statistics Meddling with the CPI as well as all Statistics and Surveys Manufacturing, Services and Households surveys: unemployment, poverty rate (as Nordic countries vs 30%), Trade: surplus instead of deficit And GDP: Far from SNA, far from LAC And GDP: Far from SNA, far from LAC

14. Official Focus and Myth of Argentina’s Growth during Commodity Prices Boom Argentine GDP growth was the highest growth of its history (Chinese rates). The “Highest Growth Myth” Argentina was the Growth champion of Latin America. The “Latin America’s Growth Champion Myth” …….But 2007 administration decided to hide inflation by intervening CPI and National Statistics Institute (INDEC)

15. MAIN ISSUE Measuring Argentina GDP Growth during commodities’ price boom: analyze and discuss methodologies, “stylized facts” and growth profileMeasuring Argentina GDP Growth during commodities’ price boom: analyze and discuss methodologies, “stylized facts” and growth profile Recalculate GDP as per traditional Argentine National Accounts MethodologyRecalculate GDP as per traditional Argentine National Accounts Methodology Reliable GDP and Productivity DiagnosisReliable GDP and Productivity Diagnosis 15

16. STRUCTURE BACKGROUND AND FRAMEWORK OF HISTORICAL NATIONAL ACCOUNTS OF ARGENTINA AND LACBACKGROUND AND FRAMEWORK OF HISTORICAL NATIONAL ACCOUNTS OF ARGENTINA AND LAC MAIN RESULTS: LEVEL GAPS AND GROWTH GAPS: AGGREGATE AND BY INDUSTRYMAIN RESULTS: LEVEL GAPS AND GROWTH GAPS: AGGREGATE AND BY INDUSTRY MYTHS, LEGENDS AND TYRANNY OF NUMBERSMYTHS, LEGENDS AND TYRANNY OF NUMBERS –METHODOLOGICAL MYTH –HIGHEST GROWTH IN HISTORY MYTH –LATIN AMERICA GROWTH CHAMPION MYTH –SUSTAINABLE GROWTH MYTH (effects of GDP manipulation on Source of Growth and TFP

18. BACKGROUND National Accounts in Argentina: from 1930s to last Reliable 93 Base year + I-O 97+ Argentina was one of the regional leaders in terms of statistics Measuring Argentina’s GDP Growth: From Myths To Facts World Economics, the Journal of Current Economic Analysis and Policy

20. Main Methodological Aspects Recalculate GDP volume index as SNA Ar, not the desire GDP: vrg. ex. Productivity of services or quality changes of outputs Taking into account these traditional methodology and similar data sources as SNA Ar (1999) with published series today at very high detail level (4-5 ISIC digit rev.3) from 1993 to test the reproduction and correlation of Activity Level with official figures without any econometric imputation 20

21. Main Methodological Aspects Traditional approach of quarterly GDP estimation from supply side in Argentina Exhaustiveness, representativeness and consistent criteria: capture the output volume by representative public and published indicators (chambers, official and private institutions) not INDEC surveys!! –Avoiding non-representativeness of surveys and high inflation distortion problem –Not all Surveys have enough representation of the global output by industry –V.I. obtained through Deflated Values from Surveys could be distorted under High Inflation 21

22. Main Methodological Aspects Commodity Flow: Trade, Cargo Transport through IO coef. by industry Manufacturing Sector by industry by representative volume indicators Demand functions in some services: restaurants, non-regular passengers transport (from 2002 only income elasticity) Non-Market services by employment indicators: education, health, public administration, other services Only Financial Intermediation depends on CPI deflatorOnly Financial Intermediation depends on CPI deflator 22

23. MAIN FINDINGS 23

24. MAIN RESULTS: + BIAS LEVEL GAP

25. MYTH 1: METHODOLOGICAL MYTH LEVEL GAP DUE TO CPI. NO! Industry Contribution to Argentina GDP gap (ratio between Official GDP and ARKLEMS reproducible GDP 2012 level -total GDP 2007-2012 Gap level=100% (12.2%).

26. MAIN RESULTS: +BIAS GROWTH GAP 2007-2012: 15,9% vs 29,4%

27. MANUFACTURING SECTOR -2007-2012- 27

28. WHOSALE AND RETAIL TRADE 28

29. FINANCIAL AND INSURANCE ACTIVITIES 29

30. +GAPS IN EVERY INDUSTRY THEORETICALLY MEASURED BY Volumen INDEX NOT CPI+GAPS IN EVERY INDUSTRY THEORETICALLY MEASURED BY Volumen INDEX NOT CPI THERE IS ABANDONMENT OF TRADITIONAL METHOD AND SOURCES OF NAr LAST 25 YEARS)THERE IS ABANDONMENT OF TRADITIONAL METHOD AND SOURCES OF NAr LAST 25 YEARS) MYTH 1: LEVEL AND GROWTH GAP DUE TO CPI: NO! 30

31. MYTH 2: Highest GDP Growth in Country’s History Development vs Growth vs Recovery Recovery: NBER (Burns-Mitchell) Growth Acceleration (Hausmann-Rodrik- Pritchett-Rostow) Steady Growth:Sustainable but also Steady Growth: Between cyclical maxima and Intensive Growth Profile (Productivity)

34. 34

35. MYTH 2: HIGHEST GROWTH IN COUNTRY’S HISTORY NO! NO STRUCTURAL CHANGE OF MACRO GROWTH TREND 2% annual between cyclical peaks (1998-2015) lag behind historical trend 2,5% NO SUSTAINABLE GROWTH ACCELERATION 2007-2012: 15,9% VS INDEC 30% (1993 and 2004 base year) Recovery 2002-2007 = 1990-1998 = 5,5% annual: Standard Growth after big crises, high amplitude and volatility GDP cyclical behavior Chinese Rates: 1917-1924, 1959-1961, 1963-1965, 1990-1994, 2002-2007 35

36. Source: ARKLEMS and ECLAC MYTH 3: ARGENTINA WAS LATIN AMERICA’S GROWTH CHAMPION: NO! Latin America GDP Growth, 2002-2012 (compound rate, %) 36

37. MYTH 3: ARGENTINA WAS LATIN AMERICA’S GROWTH CHAMPION: NO! 37 Latin America GDP Growth, 1998-2002 (compound rate, %)

38. MYTH 3: ARGENTINA WAS LATIN AMERICA’S GROWTH CHAMPION: NO! Latin America GDP Growth, 1998-2012 (compound rate, %) 38

39. FACTS DENY MYTHS NO STRUCTURAL CHANGE OF GROWTH PROFILE SLUGGISH PRODUCTIVITY 39

40. 40 1950-2015 GDP (2.5%, 1,5% per capita) K (2.7% annual) L (1.6%) X: 4.6%. TFP (0.1%) MYTH 4: NO STRUCTURAL CHANGE OF GROWTH PROFILE

41. 41 TFP (0.1%) 1950-2015 1987-1998: 1,0% (USA 2% with adj. So no gap shrinks) 1998-2015 (-0,6%) MYTH 4: NO STRUCTURAL CHANGE GROWTH PROFILE

44. TFP OF LATIN AMERICA 1998-2012 Source: TED, ARKLEMS+LAND

45. NEW MYTH WITHOUT RELIABLE BACKGROUND: 2004 “NEW” BASE YEAR OF OLD INDEC REBASEMENT KEEPS MANIPULATION 45

46. 1.New CPInu and New Rebasement of GDP of old INDEC before 2015: Objective to evade wrong payment of Warrants and Keep hiding inflation 2.Rebasement Timeliness 2-3 years. This one: two days 3.Economic Census 2004 coverage less than Fiscal Surveys 4.GDP rebasement 20% at 2004 inconsistent with “commodity flow method” and +Bias of NOE 5.But CPI and GDP Rebasement keeps manipulation 46

47. ARGENTINA GDP per capita

48. Did not Take into Account Crisis Change of Base year to avoid GDP WARRANT Did not Take into Account Crisis

49. MANUFACTURING SECTOR 49

50. WHOSALE AND RETAIL TRADE 50

51. FINANCIAL AND INSURANCE ACTIVITIES 51

52. CONCLUSIONS Inflation in Argentina: denying instead of fighting Instead of changing economic policy or swap the bonds with another clauses, Argentina open the Pandora box of manipulation with a Non-Schumpeterian Destruction of Statistical System. Why alternative CPI and GDP could exists: because Argentina was the historical regional leader in statistics. Argentine official GDP could not avoid the so-called “Pandora Box” effects, caused by the political intervention of official statistics 52

53. CONCLUSIONS The last decade did not show the highest GDP Growth in country’s history Argentina was not Latin America’s growth champion Argentina the worst long run GDP growth of Latin America Argentina did not take advantage from last commodity price boom No productivity gains in the long run Importance of not only sustainable but also low volatility and steady long run growth 53

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