1. WHAT’S UP? OBAMA AND LATIN AMERICA

2. What Drives Foreign Policy? Generosity Friendship Proximity Repayment of historical debt Or Self-centered national interest.

3. Rationales for Alternatives U.S. loss of “soft power” Continuing frustration in Latin America Importance of Latin America to U.S. Change of U.S. administration as result of presidential election

4. The Obama Beginning Exaggerated expectations Intervening priorities, domestic (economy) and international (Iraq, Afghanistan) Hesitant beginnings (no “Cairo” speech) Nuanced view of Latin America

5. EXPLAINING LOW PRIORITIES Absence of crisis Competing priorities (e.g., Afghanistan, ISIS) Are we getting all we need?  Petroleum  Cooperation on drugs (Mexico, Colombia)  Support for anti-terrorism  Decline of revolutionary activity  Rise of democracy (in limited sense)  Immigration (net flow now zero)  Trade and investment  Peace a subsidy for projection of U.S. power  Paradox: The better the neighborhood, the less the attention

6. First Term: A Rocky Start Honduras: commitment to democracy? Cuba: admission to OAS, Guantánamo Points of tension:  Venezuela  Bolivia  “New Left” in general War on Drugs Immigration

7. War on Drugs Mérida Initiative ($1.6 billion) Opposition to legalization More of the same…?

8. Immigration No comprehensive reform… not yet, anyway Deportations (1.1 million!) Executive initiative in second term, congressional oppositioin

9. THE AMAZING TURNAROUND IN U.S.-CUBA RELATIONS Foundations of U.S. Policy: Economic and Diplomatic Isolation 1959: Cuban Revolution 1961: Bay of Pigs Invasion 1962: October Missile Crisis 1996: Helms-Burton Act Obstacles to Reform 1982 designation of Cuba as “state sponsor of terrorism” Human rights and political prisoners Cuban-American resistance, role of Florida

10. CHANGING CONDITIONS Raul Castro takes over from Fidel 2008 Release of prisoners in 2010-2011 New generation of Cuban-Americans Obama wins Cuban-American vote in Florida in 2012

11. SEIZING OPPORTUNITY Announcement December 17, 2014 Prisoner releases plus easing of restrictions (on remittances, travel, banking) April 2015: Obama and Castro meet at Summit of the Americas in Panama Reopening of embassies July 20, 2015 (as yet no formal U.S. ambassador) Early 2016: further easing of economic sanctions March 21-22: Obama visit to Cuba (first U.S. president in 88 years, since Calvin Coolidge!)

12. WORLD REACTIONS U.S. Republicans vigorously opposed; no prospect for lifting of embargo 63% Americans support resumption of diplomatic relations, 66% end to embargo U.S. business long in favor 2013 UN General Assembly condemned U.S. embargo for 22 nd consecutive year, 188-2 Strong support in Latin America (as in OAS), but:  Mexico  Venezuela

13. WHY DID THEY DO IT? Cuba  Disappearing sponsors (Soviet Union, Venezuela)  Political isolation  Need for investment, economic growth  Exhaustion of “revolutionary” spirit  Opportunity: Obama > Others United States  Economic opportunities  Soft power: approval of world community, Latin America  Obama’s quest for “legacy” and use of executive power  Hasten political change within Cuba Thus: interests, not altruism