1. CHAPTER 3 © 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard The Goods Market Prepared by: Fernando Quijano and Yvonn Quijano

2. Chapter 3: The Goods Market © 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard2 of 28 The Composition of GDP 3-1 Table 3-1 The Composition of U.S. GDP, 2003 Billions of dollars Percent of GDP GDP (Y)11,004100 1.Consumption (C)7,76070.5 2.Investment (I)1,66715 Nonresidential 1,09410 Residential5725 3.Government spending (G)2,07519 4.Net exports  498 55 Exports (X)1,0469.5 Imports (IM)  1,544  14 5.Inventory investment 11 0

3. Chapter 3: The Goods Market © 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard3 of 28 日本和美国的消费对比， 1960-1999 消费占 GDP 的份额

4. Chapter 3: The Goods Market © 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard4 of 28 The Composition of GDP  Consumption (C) refers to the goods and services purchased by consumers.  Investment (I), sometimes called fixed investment, is the purchase of capital goods. It is the sum of nonresidential investment and residential investment.  Government Spending (G) refers to the purchases of goods and services by the federal, state, and local governments. It does not include government transfers, nor interest payments on the government debt.

5. Chapter 3: The Goods Market © 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard5 of 28 The Composition of GDP  Imports (IM) are the purchases of foreign goods and services by consumers, business firms, and the U.S. government.  Exports (X) are the purchases of U.S. goods and services by foreigners.

6. Chapter 3: The Goods Market © 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard6 of 28 The Composition of GDP  Net exports (X  IM) is the difference between exports and imports, also called the trade balance. Inventory investment is the difference between production and sales.

7. Chapter 3: The Goods Market © 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard7 of 28 2007 年世界 GDP 排名 1 美国 139800 2 日本 52900 3 德国 32800 4 中国 30100 5 英国 25700 6 法国 25200 7 意大利 20900 8 西班牙 14100 9 加拿大 13600 10 俄罗斯 11400 11 韩国 9920 12 巴西 9340 13 印度 9280 14 墨西哥 8850 15 荷兰 7560 16 澳大利亚 7460 17 比利时 4470 18 瑞典 4470 19 瑞士 4310 20 中国台湾 3980

8. Chapter 3: The Goods Market © 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard8 of 28 低收入国家 760 以下 中下收入国家 761 – 3035 中上收入国家 3036 – 9361 高收入国家 9361 以上 世界银行 1995 年按人均 GNP （美元）将世界上的国家分为四类。

9. Chapter 3: The Goods Market © 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard9 of 28 2007 人均 GDP 排名 Rank Country GDP (USD) 1 Luxembourg 102284 2 Norway 79154 3 Qatar 70754 4 Iceland 62976 5 Ireland 58883 6 Denmark 57035 7 Switzerland 56711 8 Sweden 47069 9 United States 45594 10 Netherlands 45429 11 United Kingdom 45301 104 China 2460 177 Liberia 195 178 Democratic Republic of the Congo 161 179 Burundi 127

10. Chapter 3: The Goods Market © 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard10 of 28 2007 省 GDP 排名 名次省区 GDP （亿元）人均 GDP （元） 1 广东 29863 32142 2 山东 25326 27148 3 江苏 24738 32985 4 浙江 17633 35730 5 河南 14234 15056 6 河北 13387 19363 7 上海 11658 65473 8 辽宁 10418 24645 9 四川 9657 11708 10 北京 8879 57431

11. Chapter 3: The Goods Market © 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard11 of 28 GDP 和 GNP GDP ：一国国内生产要素 …… 强调：地域性 GNP (Gross National Product ) ：一国国民所有的 生产要素生产的最终产品的市场价值总量。 强调：国民性 ( 所有权 ) GNP ＝ GDP + 本国 居民在外国获得的要素收入 －外国居民在国内获得的要素收入 ＝ GDP + 本国 居民在外国获得的净要素收入

12. Chapter 3: The Goods Market © 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard12 of 28 1980-1999 年中国 GDP 与 GNP 差距的变化 2001 年 美国： -0.3% 日本： -1.6% 中国： +1.7% 印度： +0.8%

13. Chapter 3: The Goods Market © 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard13 of 28 GDP/GNP 与折旧 NNP (Net National Product) ： 净国民生产总值 NNP ＝ GNP －折旧 NDP (Net Domestic Product) ：净国内生产总值 NDP=GDP －折旧 净要素收入 GDP GNP 折旧 NDP = GDP  折旧

14. Chapter 3: The Goods Market © 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard14 of 28 GDP 与生活福利 GDP 增加并不一定代表福利的提高 绿色 GDP 的概念

15. Chapter 3: The Goods Market © 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard15 of 28 10 年 600 亿 10 年 600 亿 元治理淮 河的成果

16. Chapter 3: The Goods Market © 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard16 of 28 中国环境污染令 GDP 损失百分之三 中国 2004 年因环境污染造成的损失，相当于 当年国内生产总值 (GDP) 的 3% 。 这是中国首次将日益严重的环境污染对经济 造成的影响进行量化。 来源：《中国绿色国民经济核算研究报告 2004 》，中国国家统计局 (National Bureau of Statistics) 和中国国家环保总局 (State Environmental Protection Administration) 。

17. Chapter 3: The Goods Market © 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard17 of 28 The Demand for Goods The total demand for goods is written as: The symbol “  ” means that this equation is an, or definition. The symbol “  ” means that this equation is an identity, or definition. Under the assumption that the economy is closed, X = IM = 0, then: 3-2

18. Chapter 3: The Goods Market © 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard18 of 28 The Demand for Goods To determine Z, some simplifications must be made:  Assume that all firms produce the same good, which can then be used by consumers for consumption, by firms for investment, or by the government.  Assume that firms are willing to supply and demand in that market  Assume that the economy is closed, that it does not trade with the rest of the world, then both exports and imports are zero.

19. Chapter 3: The Goods Market © 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard19 of 28 Consumption (C) Disposable income, (Y D ), is the income that remains once consumers have paid taxes and received transfers from the government. The function C(Y D ) is called the. It is a, that is, it captures the behavior of consumers. The function C(Y D ) is called the consumption function. It is a behavioral equation, that is, it captures the behavior of consumers. Disposable income is defined as:

20. Chapter 3: The Goods Market © 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard20 of 28 Consumption (C) A more specific form of the consumption function is this linear relation: This function has two, c 0 and c 1 : This function has two parameters, c 0 and c 1 :  c 1 is called the (marginal) propensity to consume, or the effect of an additional dollar of disposable income on consumption.  c 0 is the intercept of the consumption function.

21. Chapter 3: The Goods Market © 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard21 of 28 Consumption (C) Figure 3 - 1 Consumption and Disposable Income Consumption increases with disposable income, but less than one for one.

22. Chapter 3: The Goods Market © 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard22 of 28 Investment (I) Variables that depend on other variables within the model are called endogenous. Variables that are not explain within the model are called exogenous. Investment here is taken as given, or treated as an exogenous variable:

23. Chapter 3: The Goods Market © 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard23 of 28 Government Spending (G) Government spending, G, together with taxes, T, describes fiscal policy—the choice of taxes and spending by the government. We shall assume that G and T are also exogenous for two reasons:  Governments do not behave with the same regularity as consumers or firms.  Macroeconomists must think about the implications of alternative spending and tax decisions of the government.

24. Chapter 3: The Goods Market © 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard24 of 28 The Determination of Equilibrium Output Equilibrium in the goods market requires that production, Y, be equal to the demand for goods, Z: Then:. The equilibrium condition is that, production, Y, be equal to demand. Demand, Z, in turn depends on income, Y, which itself is equal to production. 3-3

25. Chapter 3: The Goods Market © 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard25 of 28 Using Algebra The equilibrium equation can be manipulated to derive some important terms: Autonomous spending and the multiplier:  The term is that part of the demand for goods that does not depend on output, it is called autonomous spending. If the government ran a balanced budget, then T=G.  Because the propensity to consume (c 1 ) is between zero and one, is a number greater than one. For this reason, this number is called the multiplier.

26. Chapter 3: The Goods Market © 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard26 of 28 Using a Graph Figure 3 - 2 Equilibrium in the Goods Market Equilibrium output is determined by the condition that production be equal to demand.  First, plot production as a function of income.  Second, plot demand as a function of income.  In Equilibrium, production equals demand.

27. Chapter 3: The Goods Market © 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard27 of 28 Using a Graph An increase in autonomous spending has a more than one-for-one effect on equilibrium output. Figure 3 - 3 The Effects of an Increase in Autonomous Spending on Output

28. Chapter 3: The Goods Market © 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard28 of 28 Using a Graph  The first-round increase in demand, shown by the distance AB equals $1 billion.  This first-round increase in demand leads to an equal increase in production, or $1 billion, which is also shown by the distance in AB.  This first-round increase in production leads to an equal increase in income, shown by the distance in BC, also equal to $1 billion.

29. Chapter 3: The Goods Market © 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard29 of 28 Using a Graph  The second-round increase in demand, shown by the distance in CD, equals $1 billion times the propensity to consume.  This second-round increase in demand leads to an equal increase in production, also shown by the distance DC, and thus an equal increase in income, shown by the distance DE.  The third-round increase in demand equals $c 1 billion, times c 1, the marginal propensity to consume; it is equal to $c 1 x c 1 = $ c 1 2 billion.

30. Chapter 3: The Goods Market © 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard30 of 28 乘数的传递机制 自主支出增加后：产出增加多少 ?

31. Chapter 3: The Goods Market © 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard31 of 28 Using a Graph Following this logic, the total increase in production after, say, n rounds, equals $1 billion times the sum: 1 + c 1 + c 1 2 + …+ c 1 n Such a sum is called a geometric series.

32. Chapter 3: The Goods Market © 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard32 of 28 Using Words To summarize: An increase in demand leads to an increase in production and a corresponding increase in income. The end result is an increase in output that is larger than the initial shift in demand, by a factor equal to the multiplier. To estimate the value of the multiplier, and more generally, to estimate behavioral equations and their parameters, economists use econometrics—a set of statistical methods used in economics.

33. Chapter 3: The Goods Market © 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard33 of 28 Investment Equals Saving: An Alternative Way of Thinking about Goods-Market Equilibrium Saving is the sum of private plus public saving.  Private saving (S), is saving by consumers. equals taxes minus government spending.  Public saving equals taxes minus government spending.  If T > G, the government is running a budget surplus—public saving is positive.  If T < G, the government is running a budget deficit—public saving is negative. 3-4

34. Chapter 3: The Goods Market © 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard34 of 28 Investment Equals Saving: An Alternative Way of Thinking about Goods-Market Equilibrium The equation above states that equilibrium in the goods market requires that investment equals saving—the sum of private plus public saving. This equilibrium condition for the goods market is called the IS relation. What firms want to invest must be equal to what people and the government want to save.

35. Chapter 3: The Goods Market © 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard35 of 28  Consumption and saving decisions are one and the same.  The term (1  c 1 ) is called the propensity to save. In equilibrium: Rearranging terms, we get the same result as before : Investment Equals Saving: An Alternative Way of Thinking about Goods-Market Equilibrium

36. Chapter 3: The Goods Market © 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard36 of 28 Is the Government Omnipotent? A Warning  Changing government spending or taxes may be far from easy.  The responses of consumption, investment, imports, etc, are hard to assess with much certainty.  Anticipations are a likely matter.  Achieving a given level of output may come with unpleasant side effects.  Budget deficits and public debt may have adverse implications in the long run. 3-5 The Paradox of Saving The paradox of saving is that as people attempt to save more, the result is both a decline in output and unchanged saving.

37. Chapter 3: The Goods Market © 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard37 of 28 Key Terms  Consumption (C)  Investment (I)  Fixed investment  Nonresidential investment  Residential investment  Government spending (G)  Government transfers  Imports (IM)  Exports (X)  Net exports (X-IM)  Trade balance  Trade surplus  Trade deficit  Inventory investment  Identity  Disposable income (Y D )  Consumption function  Behavioral equation  Linear relation  Parameter  Propensity to consume (c1)  Endogenous variables  Exogenous variables  Fiscal policy  Equilibrium  Equilibrium in the goods market  Equilibrium condition  Autonomous spending  Balanced budget  Multiplier  Geometric series  Econometrics  Dynamics  Forecast error  Consumer confidence index  Private saving (S)  Public saving (T-G)  Budget surplus  Budget deficit  Saving  IS relation  Propensity to save  Paradox of saving