1. OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Economic and Revenue Outlook 2015-17 Budget Kickoff Meeting March 15 th, 2016Oregon Office of Economic Analysis Mark McMullen Josh Lehner

2. OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Economic Overview 2

3. OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Oregon Full-Throttle Growth 3

4. OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Migration Flows have Returned 4

5. OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Strong Wage Gains 5

6. OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Growth has Returned to Rural Oregon 6

7. OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Risks 7

8. OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Global Weakness Hits Oregon 8

9. OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Housing Costs Rising 9

10. OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Public Policies 10

11. OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS The Long Run 11

12. OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Big Picture, Long Run Outlook 12

13. OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Demographics and Budget Drivers 13

14. OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Generations in Oregon 14

15. OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Demographic Changes 15

16. OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Budgets and Demographics 16

17. OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Demographics and the Business Cycle Impacts Higher Education 17

18. OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Oregon Women Prison Intakes

19. OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Women – Preliminary Forecast

20. OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Male Person Crime Intakes: Demographics Are Not Everything

21. OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS All Male Inmate Forecast

22. OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Revenue Outlook 22

23. OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS 2017-19 Revenue Outlook 23

24. OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Personal Income Tax Collections Remain Healthy 24

25. OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS The Tricky Part 25

26. OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS 26 Personal Income Tax Forecast $ billions, 4 quarter moving sum 2015-17 2017-19 2020-21 2021-23

27. OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Corporate Taxes Turn Down 27

28. OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Don’t Look at Us, DHS Has Your Money 28

29. OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Vehicle Miles Traveled Rebounds 29

30. OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Economic Growth Drives Liquor Sales 30

31. OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Smoke ‘Em If You Got ‘Em (Pt 1) 31

32. OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Smoke ‘Em If You Got ‘Em (Pt 2) 32

33. OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Lottery Revenues Booming Again 33

34. OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Yet Still Smaller Share of Income 34

35. OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS 35 Biennial Revenue Growth

36. OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS 36 Reserves

37. OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Contact www.OregonEconomicAnalysis.com @OR_EconAnalysis oea.info@oregon.gov (503) 378-3405