1. The Human Population: Growth, Demography, and Carrying Capacity Chapter 52

2. Fig. 11.3, p. 240 <1% 1-1.9% 2-2.9% 3+% Data not available Annual world population growth Natural Rate of Increase

3. Factors Affecting Human Population Size Population change equation Population change = (births + immigration) – (deaths + emigration) Zero population growth (ZPG) Crude birth rate (BR) Crude death rate (DR)

4. Factors affecting human population size

5. Demographers Document current population size Model population growth Crude birth rate: number of live births per 1K people in population in specified year Crude death rate: number of deaths per 1K people in population in specified year

6. Average crude birth rateAverage crude death rate World All developed countries All developing countries Developing countries (w/o China) 22 9 11 10 25 9 29 9 Birth/Death Rates for Population Groups

7. Global Exponential Growth

8. Exponential population growth Is still occurring; the rate has slowed The base is larger-nearly doubled in the last 40 years Natural increase is down to 1.28% (was 2.2%)

9. 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 19501960197019801990200020102020203020402050 Growth rate (percent) Year Average Annual Increase in the World’s population

10. China India USA Indonesia Brazil Pakistan Russia Bangladesh Japan Nigeria 2000 2025 1.26 billion 1.4 billion 1 billion 1.4 billion 276 million 338 million 212 million 273 million 170 million 221 million 151 million 227 million 145 million 137 million 128 million 177 million 127 million 121 million 123 million 205 million 10 most populous countries

11. Fig. 11.8, p. 242 Births per woman < 2 2-2.9 3-3.9 4-4.9 5+ Data not available Fertility Rates Replacement level fertility Total fertility rate (TFR)

12. Fertility Rates Replacement level fertility: the number of children that a couple must bear to replace themselves; currently 2.1 (2.5) due to deaths of females before maturity Total fertility rate: estimate of the average number of children a woman will have during her childbearing years currently 2.8 (3.1)

13. Asia Europe Africa Latin America North America Oceania 3.7 billion 4.7 billion 728 million 714 million 800 million 1.3 billion 518 million 703 million 306 million 374 million 31 million 39 million 20002025 Population projections by region

14. World Developed countries Developing countries Africa Latin America Asia Oceania North America Europe 5 children per women 2.9 2.5 1.5 6.5 3.2 6.6 5.3 5.9 2.8 5.9 2.8 3.8 2.4 3.5 2.0 2.6 1.4 1950 2000 Decline in TFR

15. Factors Affecting BR &TFR US BRs and TFRs 32 30 28 26 24 22 20 18 16 14 0 0 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Births per thousand population Demographic transition Depression Baby boom Baby bust Echo baby boom World War II Year Fig. 11.11, p. 243 see Fig. 11-10 p. 243

16. High Medium Low 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 19501960197019801990200020102020203020402050 High 10.7 Medium 8.9 Low 7.3 Year Population (billion) UN World Population Projection

17. 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 2.1 1.5 1.0 0.5 0 1920193019401950196019701980199020002010 Year Births per woman /baby boom replacement depression TFR for US

18. Increase in US population 1.7 million more births than deaths (60% growth) ~1M immigrants and refugees 300K illegal immigrants (ecological footprint!!!!!)

19. Demographic transition Shift from high birth rates to low birth rates during industrialization Education and working outside the home are 2 of most effective ways to reduce birth rate (reduce family size)

20. Stages of demographic transition Preindustrial: high birth and death rates Transitional: death rates drop and birth rates remain high due to food and health care Industrial: birth rate drops, approaching death rate Postindustrial: birth rate declines equaling death rate -> ZPG

21. Low High Relative population size Birth rate and death rate (number per 1,000 per year) 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Stage 1 Preindustrial Stage 2 Transitional Stage 3 Industrial Stage 4 Postindustrial Low growth rate Increasing Growth growth rate Very high growth rate Decreasing growth rate Low growth rate Zero growth rate Negative growth rate Birth rate Total population Death rate Time Demographic Transition

22. Factors affecting Birth Rates and Fertility Rates Importance of children as part of the labor force Urbanization Cost of raising and educating children Educational and employment opportunities for women Infant mortality rate

23. Factors affecting Birth Rates and Fertility Rates Average age at marriage (birth 1 st child) Availability of private and public pension systems Availability of legal abortions Availability of reliable birth control methods Religious beliefs, traditions, and cultural norms

24. Infant deaths per 1,000 live births <10 10-35 36-70 71-100 100+ Data not available Factors Affecting DR Life expectancy Infant mortality rate (IMR)

25. Factors Affecting Death Rate Increased food supplies and distribution Better nutrition Improvements in medical and public health technology Improved sanitation and personal hygiene Safer water supplies

26. Health Indicators Life expectancy Increased from 48 to 67 yrs (76 in dev and 65 in undev) in Africa, <55 yrs Infant mortality rate (indicates quality of life) under nutrition, poor nutrition, >infectious disease

27. 50 40 30 20 10 0 1775 1800 185019001950 2000 2050 Rate per 1,000 people Year Rate of natural increase Crude birth rate Crude death rate Rate of natural increase = crude birth rate = crude death rate Developed Countries Infant mortality dropped from 20 to 7/1K live births

28. Fig. 11.13b, p. 245 50 40 30 20 10 0 1775 1800 185019001950 2000 2050 Rate per 1,000 people Crude birth rate Rate of natural increase Crude death rate Year Developing Countries Infant mortality dropped from 118 to 60/1K live births

29. US has highest rate of infant mortality among developed countries Inadequate health care for poor women during pregnancy and for their babies Drug addiction among pregnant women The highest birth rate among teenagers (low birth weights, inadequate prenatal and postnatal care, unprepared for parental responsibilities-inadequate education)

30. Age Structure Diagrams Proportion of the population of each sex at each age level Plot percentages or population numbers in 3 age categories: prereproductive (0-14~), reproductive (14-~44), and postreproductive

31. MaleFemale Rapid Growth Guatemala Nigeria Saudi Arabia Slow Growth United States Australia Canada MaleFemale Ages 0-14Ages 15-44Ages 45-85+ Age Structure pyramids

32. Zero Growth Spain Austria Greece Negative Growth Germany Bulgaria Sweden MaleFemaleMaleFemale Ages 0-14Ages 15-44Ages 45-85+ Age Structure pyramids

33. 3002001000 200300 85+ 80-85 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 MaleFemale Population (millions) Developed Countries

34. 3002001000 200300 85+ 80-85 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 MaleFemale Population (millions) Developing Countries

35. Age Structure Pyramids

36. In 2002 30% of world’s population was <15yr old 1.9 billion are entering their reproductive years This will continue global population growth Possibly stemmed by effective program to reduce birth rate OR sharp rise in death rates????

37. Population (2000) Population projected (2025) Infant mortality rate Life expectancy Fertility rate (TFR) %Population under age 15 % Population over age 65 Per capita GNP (1998) 276 million 170 million 123 million 338 million 221 million 205 million 7 38 77 77 years 68 years 52 years 2.1 2.4 6.0 21% 30% 44% 13% 5% 3% $29,240 $4,630 $300 United States (highly developed) Brazil (moderately developed) Nigeria (less developed) Comparison of demographic indicators

38. Age structure pyramids can be used for economic projections Baby boomers pass the laws that could alter taxes for a smaller tax base, demand for goods based on their needs, delay retirement (also forced by baby bust generation, but preventing baby bust gen from getting jobs) Echo boom (gen Y or millennials) will be the largest generation ever and will take over that position now occupied by the baby boom generation

39. Sharp population decline Result in greatest proportion of the population elderly consuming the costliest services (medical care, Social Security) Labor shortages

40. Age FemalesMales 1955 20 16 12 8 4 4 8 16 20 24 20 16 12 8 4 4 8 16 20 24 FemalesMales 1985 Millions Tracking baby boom generation

41. Population Decline Due to Reduced Fertility Sharp rise in the proportion of elderly requiring more social services Labor shortages Reduced funding for programs supported by taxes

42. 1945 41.9 workers 40 30 20 10 0 1950 16.5 2075 1.9 1945 2000 20502075 Number of workers supporting each Social Security beneficiary Effects Population Decline

43. 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 19501970199020102030205020702090211021302150 Year Age Distribution (%) Under age 15 Age 60 or overAge 80 or over Global Aging

44. Population decline from increased death rates Starvation, malnutrition, epidemics (AIDS, tuberculosis, …) Drop in life expectancy Loss of productive workers and trained personnel Rise in orphans Drop in food production

45. Effects Population Decline

46. Restoration of economic progress Debt relief Incentives to encourage investment Financial assistance for education and health care Providing teachers, health-care workers, and social workers for support of population

47. Effect of migration Immigration: movement into an area Emmigration: movement out of area Few countries allow large annual increases in population from immigration International migration from developing to developed is tiny 1% Migration from rural to urban areas alters population dynamics and flow of resources

48. 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 1820184018801860190019201940196019802000 2010 Year Number of legal immigrants (thousands) 1907 1914 New laws restrict immigrati on Great Depression Legal Immigration

49. Which Question? Can the world provide an adequate standard of living for 3.1 billion MORE people without causing widespread environmental damage? What is the optimum sustainable population of the earth, based on the planet’s cultural carrying capacity?

50. Pro (more pop) & Con (over pop) Ave life span is longer than ever before People valuable problem solving resource Religious beliefs Privacy and freedom of expression issues Genocide to reduce pop in developing countries 1 out of 6 people do not have food or clean water Death rates will rise Environment will be degraded and unable to support population Insufficient resources will lead to social disruption

51. Family Planning to reduce Birth rate Increase proportion of married women in developing countries using modern contraception (as opposed to abortion) Responsible for 55% of drop of TFRs in dev. Countries Reduces number of legal and illegal abortions Decreases risk of death from pregnancy Most women still have no access to services

52. Condom 5% Female sterilization 17% IUD 12% Other methods 10% Pill 8% Male sterilization 5% No method 43% Global Contraception Use of Married Women

53. Reducing Birth Rates by empowering women Women work 66% of all hours worked but receive only 10% of world’s income and own 0.01% of world’s property Women are 70% of world’s poor 66% of illiterate individuals are women Educating and employing women outside the home would require social change especially difficult in male dominated societies

54. Percentage of world population Population (2000) Population (2025) (estimated) Illiteracy (%of adults) Pop under age 15(%) Pop growth rate (%) Total fertility rate Infant mortality rate Life expectancy GNP per capita (1998) 16% 21% 1 billion 1.3 billion 1.4 billion 47% 17% 36% 25% 1.8% 0.9% 3.3 children per woman (down from 5.3 in 1970) 1.8 children per woman (down from 5.7 in 1972) 72 31 61 years 71 years $440 $750 India China

55. China as case study Between 1972 and 2002, Birth rate halved and cut TFR from 5.7 to 1.8 children per woman Postpone age to marry One child per couple Married couples free sterilization other contraceptives One child only: tax, food, health, pension, housing, school benefits