1. Modeling Efficient and Sustainable Hydroelectric Production at Small Dams through Artificially Induced Streamflow and Application of System Control United States Society of Dams – Annual Conference 2016 Rafey A Siddiqui, Bilal A Siddiqui, Ryan T Bailey and Arif I Osmani

2. Study Area (on global scale) STUDY AREA

3. Study Area (Local Scale)

4. About the Project DHA City, Karachi (DCK) is designed to become a city of approximately 1 million people, envisioned to act as a satellite town to Karachi. Sustainable Design Principles, some of which include the concepts of connectivity, efficiency, renewability, minimization of externalities, and carrying capacity. Pakistan’s first ENVISION certified project.

5. Climate of the Study Area The study area is located in the arid southern region of Paksitan. Receives an annual average of 217mm of rainfall. Temperatures soaring to an average 88°F in the summers and 68°F during the winters. The humidity level in the city ranges between 64% and 90% throughout the year Source: Pakistan Met Department

6. Temperature Analysis

7. Precipitation Analysis

8. Problem Statement Water and Electricity is a prized and expensive commodity in the region. Country is already facing a shortfall on both Electricity and Water. Meeting the Water and Electricity demands from conventional sources looks highly improbable. City needs to keep up with its motto of sustainability, recycling and conservation.

9. Basic Concept Sewage Treatment Plant Streamflow Routing Small Dam with PID- MPC Controller Constant Head Maintained Energy Production Artificial Groundwater Recharge Drawdown Control Through Well Placement Optimization

10. Objectives Calculate the hydroelectric production potential of the small dams using ANN (Artificial Neural Networks) and Model Predictive Control (MPC) system control tools for the most optimized results; and Conduct cost-benefit analysis for the project as a decision support system for the stakeholders of DCK.

11. Basic Concept of Machine Predictive Controller

12. Identifying Dam Locations

13. Routing flow from STPs to Dams

14. Head vs Area Relationship

15. Equations in use

16. Equations in Use

17. Model Data Flow series Head-Area Relationship Physical Constraints Dam Configuration Target Outputs

18. Simulation Results

19. Project Results

20. Cost-Benefit Analysis The 2015 gazette from the Karachi Electric (KE) Company shows that one Kwh (Kilo-Watt-Hour) of energy costed 18 cents. Instead of buying at this rate, the green electricity that DCK will be producing at site will save a daily amount of approximately 60,000 USD. The O & M cost of one dam is estimated at $200,000 per year. The project can virtually pay back in 2 years time.

21. Results & Conclusions The MPC was found to be an effective controller for automated operation of the dam and for achieving targeted outputs.

22. Way-Forward Detail design of the project needs to be conducted depending on the availability of data. Sensitivity Analysis for falling head and other parameters should be performed. Uncertainty Analysis need to be done to improve the performance of the controller during extreme events like floods and droughts.