1. 1 Chapter 2 PLANNING FOR HUMAN RESOURCE ( 第 2 章 人力资源 规划 )

2. 2 MAIN CONTENTS 2-1 LINKING HR PLANNING TO COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE2-1 LINKING HR PLANNING TO COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE 2-2 HRM ISSUES & PRATICES2-2 HRM ISSUES & PRATICES 2-3 The MANAGER’S GUIDE2-3 The MANAGER’S GUIDE

3. 3 2-1 LINKING HR PLANNING TO COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE What is HRP?What is HRP? Purposes (Aim) of HRPPurposes (Aim) of HRP Types of HRPTypes of HRP Linking HR planning to competitive advantage?Linking HR planning to competitive advantage?

4. 4 What is HRP （ p26 ） ? HR Planning- is defined as the “process of identifying and responding to 【 organizational needs 】 …and charting new policies, system,and programs that will assure effective HR under changing conditions.

5. Purposes (Aim)of HRP （ p26+30 ） Its Purposes- (1) To enable organization to anticipate their future HR needs (quantity of vacancy, type) (2 ） To identify practices that will help them meet those needs. (3) To ensure that people will available with the appropriate characteristics and skills when and where the organization needs them. 5

6. 6 HR Planning may be done onHR Planning may be done on a short-term basis （ within 1year ） a long-term basis （ three or more years ） Types of HRP

7. 7 Linking HR Planning to competitive advantage （ p26-27 ） Linking HRM Practices to organizational goals Serving as a building block for future HRM practices Consequences Associated with the Failure to plan for Human Resource

8. 8 2-2a Strategic Planning2-2a Strategic Planning 2-2b Human Resource Planning 2-2b Human Resource Planning 2-2c Outcomes of the HR Planning Process 2-2c Outcomes of the HR Planning Process 2-2 HRM ISSUES & PRATICES

9. 9 1.Determine the organization mission 2.Scan the organization environment 3.Set strategic goals 4.Formulate a strategic plan, part of which addresses HR needs 2-2a Strategic Planning

10. 10 2-2b Human Resource Planning2-2b Human Resource Planning StepsSteps Forecasts of supply evaluation Preparation Balancing Forecasts of demand Comparison

11. 11 Steps ----Demand forecasting, which involves predicting the number and types of people the organization will need at some future point in time ---- Supply forecasting, which means the positions that are expected to be already filled that are expected to be already filled ----Comparing ， which involves comparing the results of supply and demand forecasts for each job group, the difference between the two signifies the firm’s HR needs ----Balancing, which involves balancing both supply and demand 2-2b Human Resource Planning

12. 12 Demand forecasting p30 involves predicting the number and types of people the organization will need at some future point in time. Demand forecasting p30 involves predicting the number and types of people the organization will need at some future point in time. Two approaches :statistical judgmental Demand forecasting Demand forecasting

13. 13 Most commonly used statistical methods of demand forecasting are Most commonly used statistical methods of demand forecasting are  Trend analysis  Ratio analysis  Regression Analysis Demand forecasting

14. 14 Ratio Analysis （比率分析法 p30 ） is the process of determining future HR demand by computing an exact ratio between the specific business factor and the number of employees needed. Ratio Analysis （比率分析法 p30 ） is the process of determining future HR demand by computing an exact ratio between the specific business factor and the number of employees needed. For example, a hospital has 10,000 patients and 500 nurses ， the ratio is thus 10,000:500 or 20:1. This ratio means that for every 20patients it needs one nurse. If the hospital anticipates an increase for next year of 1000 patients, How many additional nurses need to hire? For example, a hospital has 10,000 patients and 500 nurses ， the ratio is thus 10,000:500 or 20:1. This ratio means that for every 20patients it needs one nurse. If the hospital anticipates an increase for next year of 1000 patients, How many additional nurses need to hire? Demand forecasting

15. 15 Trend Analysis( 趋势分析法 p31) The future demand for human resources is projected on the basis of past business trends regarding a business factor Sales （ thousands ） Demand forecasting

16. 16 Regression Analysis （回归分析法 p31 ）Regression Analysis （回归分析法 p31 ） Y ＝ a ＋ bxY ＝ a ＋ bx Example ： Please predict human resources needed for the13th and 15th year based on the workforce size for X company in the past 10 years. Demand forecasting

17. Most commonly used statistical methods of demand forecasting are Most commonly used statistical methods of demand forecasting are  Group Brainstorming  Ratio analysis  Regression Analysis 17

18. 18 Group Brainstorming 群体头脑风暴 p32 Group Brainstorming 群体头脑风暴 p32 A panel of “experts” are asked to put their heads together to generate a forecast. A variety of group brainstorming techniques exit. Most involve a face –to- face discussion among group members,who are asked to reach a consensus. The experts try to predict such things as A panel of “experts” are asked to put their heads together to generate a forecast. A variety of group brainstorming techniques exit. Most involve a face –to- face discussion among group members,who are asked to reach a consensus. The experts try to predict such things as 1.Future demand for the organization’s products and services 2. The percentage of the market that the organization will serve 2. The percentage of the market that the organization will serve 3.The availabilities and the nature of new technologies that may affect the amount and types of products or service Demand forecasting

19. 19 Sales Force Estimates 销售人员估计 p32 When a new product is launched, salespeople are asked to estimate the demand for product (i.e., expected sales volume) based on their knowledge of customers needs and interests. When a new product is launched, salespeople are asked to estimate the demand for product (i.e., expected sales volume) based on their knowledge of customers needs and interests. The organization then uses this information to estimate how many employees will be needed to meet this demand. The organization then uses this information to estimate how many employees will be needed to meet this demand. Demand forecasting

20. 20 Delphi Technique( 德尔菲法 ) is a set of procedures originally developed by the Rand Corporation( 兰德 公司 ) and Douglas in the late 1940s. The future HR demand is predicted based on a group of experts’ experience and intuition. Its purpose is to obtain the most reliable consensus of opinion of a group of experts. Delphi Technique( 德尔菲法 ) is a set of procedures originally developed by the Rand Corporation( 兰德 公司 ) and Douglas in the late 1940s. The future HR demand is predicted based on a group of experts’ experience and intuition. Its purpose is to obtain the most reliable consensus of opinion of a group of experts. Demand forecasting

21. STEPS （ 1 ）选择专家，确定问题，设计问卷，把问卷寄给专家 （ 2 ）由各专家背靠背独立完成，并提出相应意见方案。 (3) 人力部门回收第一轮，然后统计整理后，把综合结果反 馈给他们 (3) 人力部门回收第一轮，然后统计整理后，把综合结果反 馈给他们 （ 4 ）请专家重新思考，允许他们修改自己的预测，并说明原 因。 （ 5 ）重复 3 、 4 步，直到获得比较一致的看法。 注意事项：征求意见的问题具体，问题不能过多。 注意事项：征求意见的问题具体，问题不能过多。 21

22. 22 Markov Analysis/Transitional matrices （马尔 科夫分析法 / 转移矩阵法 p32 － 33 ） Markov Analysis/Transitional matrices （马尔 科夫分析法 / 转移矩阵法 p32 － 33 ） The future HR supply is predicted based on past mobility or past shift trends. The future HR supply is predicted based on past mobility or past shift trends. Two steps are involved. Two steps are involved. Supply Forecasting

23. 23

24. 24 Executive Replacement Charts( 管 理人员接替图） Executive Replacement Charts( 管 理人员接替图） It is concise a map used to forecast the future managers replacement and supply. Possible replacement candidates as well as their performance and promotion potential must be indicated on the map. It is concise a map used to forecast the future managers replacement and supply. Possible replacement candidates as well as their performance and promotion potential must be indicated on the map. Supply Forecasting

25. 25 2-2c Outcomes of the HR Planning Process/ Dealing with Oversupply (p33) Option Speed Extent of HumanSufferingOption Speed Extent of HumanSuffering Fast Slow 1. Downsizing 2. Pay reductions 3. Demotions 4. Transfers 5. Work sharing 6. Hiring freeze 7. Natural attrition 8. Early retirement 9. Retraining High Moderate Low

26. 26 2-2c Outcomes of the HR Planning Process/ Dealing with Oversupply (p33) Option SpeedExtent of Human SufferingOption SpeedExtent of Human Suffering 1. Overtime 2. Temporary employees 3. Outsourcing 4.Retrained 5. Turnover reductions 6. New external hires 7. Technological innovation Fast Slow High Low High Moderate Low

27. 27 2-3 Role of Line Manager’s & HRM Department’s Role p35-37 1.Staffing-To ensure that his or 1.Staffing-To ensure that his or her work unit is properly staffed at all times. 2.Employee Retention-Their 2.Employee Retention-Their Management style can have a major impact on a subordinate’s major impact on a subordinate’s decision to remain with the company 1.The role in Strategic Planning 2.Developing and Implementing HR plans 3.Evaluation of HR plans Line ManagerHRM Department

28. 28 思考题 这儿有八种人，你准备怎么安排他们？ 这儿有八种人，你准备怎么安排他们？ （１） 勇敢但不计后果； （１） 勇敢但不计后果； （２） 点子多但不听话； （２） 点子多但不听话； （３） 有本事但过于谦虚； （３） 有本事但过于谦虚； （４） 听话但没有原则； （４） 听话但没有原则； （５） 踏实但没有创意； （５） 踏实但没有创意； （６） 能力强但不善合作； （６） 能力强但不善合作； （７） 机灵但不踏实； （７） 机灵但不踏实； （８） 是将才但有野心． （８） 是将才但有野心．

29. 29 案例分析 在企业管理实践中，管理者经常遇到一些问题， 员工被人挖走，员工跳槽了，企业要发展，但缺 乏适应企业发展所需要的人才，若你是管理者该 怎么办？ 在企业管理实践中，管理者经常遇到一些问题， 员工被人挖走，员工跳槽了，企业要发展，但缺 乏适应企业发展所需要的人才，若你是管理者该 怎么办？

30. 30 人员供给预测 某公司各类人员的期初人数为：高层管理人员 40 人，部 门经理 80 人，高级工程师 120 人，技术人员 160 人。 某公司各类人员的期初人数为：高层管理人员 40 人，部 门经理 80 人，高级工程师 120 人，技术人员 160 人。 公司每年平均有 80% 的高层管理人员留用， 20% 的高层 管理人员退修。每年平均有 70% 的部门经理留在原职位， 10% 提升为高层管理人员， 20% 离职。每年平均有 80% 的 高级工程师留在原职位， 5% 提升为部门经理， 5% 降职 为技术人员 10% 离职。每年平均有 65% 的技术人员留在原 职位， 15% 提升为高级工程师， 20% 离职。 公司每年平均有 80% 的高层管理人员留用， 20% 的高层 管理人员退修。每年平均有 70% 的部门经理留在原职位， 10% 提升为高层管理人员， 20% 离职。每年平均有 80% 的 高级工程师留在原职位， 5% 提升为部门经理， 5% 降职 为技术人员 10% 离职。每年平均有 65% 的技术人员留在原 职位， 15% 提升为高级工程师， 20% 离职。 请列出该公司的职位转移矩阵并计算出人员供给情况。 请列出该公司的职位转移矩阵并计算出人员供给情况。

31. 31 人员类别高管部门经理高级工程 师 技术人员离职 高管 N=40 80% 32 20% （ 8 ） 部门经理 N=80 10% 8 70% 56 20% （ 16 ） 高级工程 师 N=120 5% 6 80% 96 5% 6 10% （ 12 ） 技术人员 N=160 15% 24 65% 104 20% （ 32 ） 预测供给量 4062120110 68